710 Umbrella Tree Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$237,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · Land · 46 Days on market

Built 2026 $187/sqft · 16% above area Est $205k · 16% over $48/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW!!! Lennar at Magnolia Ridge in Magnolia! Newly released community and homes! The Oakridge H1 is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($315/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $190,338 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,602
• List price: $237,990
• Delta: 16.32%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $126,215
• Equity at exit: $214,400

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $361,147
• Equity at exit: $462,362

Cash invested: $66,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $986/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,870

Max offer price $237,990

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,498
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	43d	1	0.38mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	24d	1	0.39mi
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	22d	1	0.49mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	24d	1	0.66mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	5d	1	0.68mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   NEW!!! Lennar at Magnolia Ridge in Magnolia! Newly released community and homes! The Oakridge H1 is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

2. 2026-05-06
   price $237,990 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   NEW!!! Lennar at Magnolia Ridge in Magnolia! Newly released community and homes! The Oakridge H1 is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

3. 2026-04-28
   price $219,990 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   NEW!!! Lennar at Magnolia Ridge in Magnolia! Newly released community and homes! The Oakridge H1 is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

4. 2026-04-20
   price $222,740 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   NEW!!! Lennar at Magnolia Ridge in Magnolia! Newly released community and homes! The Oakridge H1 is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

5. 2026-04-08
   price $216,640 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   NEW!!! Lennar at Magnolia Ridge in Magnolia! Newly released community and homes! The Oakridge H1 is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

6. 2026-03-26
   price $219,990 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   NEW!!! Lennar at Magnolia Ridge in Magnolia! Newly released community and homes! The Oakridge H1 is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

7. 2026-03-20
   listed $237,990 Active 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   NEW!!! Lennar at Magnolia Ridge in Magnolia! Newly released community and homes! The Oakridge H1 is a single-level home that showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $986 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,355 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,369/yr (+$281/mo · 341.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,331
• − Property taxes: −$986
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$6,923
• Taxable loss: −$3,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$917
• After-tax cash flow: $1,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $237,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $222,740 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $216,640 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $237,990 HARMLS