321 Shamrock Blvd · Venice Gardens, FL 34293

$298,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1962 10,645 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BEAUTIFUL DIRECT VIEWS OF SHAMROCK LAKE - THIS PROPERTY GIVES YOU AN EXPANSIVE SCENIC LOCATION ON INTERSECTING CHAIN OF LAKES. FLORIDA CHARMER - ESTATE PROPERTY -FIRST TIME FOR SALE AND AVAILABLE IN OVER 33 YEARS! THE POTENTIAL IS HUGE! THE LOT HAS WONDERFUL ESTABLISHED LANDSCAPE AND BEAUTIFUL TREES IN BLOOM. Just under 1300 square feet, this is a 2 bedroom, 2 full bath home with a highly desired split bedroom plan. Some windows have been replaced - AC Replaced in 2019 - Re-pipe of H/C water Lines in 2012 - New Roof in 2024. Bring your desire to put the love back into this 60's charmer with original vintage tiled bathrooms and double garage! WOW - UNIQUE AND HARD TO FIND - NEIGHBORHOOD PE

Key facts

• Pool and playground
• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• DIRECT VIEWS OF SHAMROCK LAKE
• EXPANSIVE SCENIC LOCATION
• ESTABLISHED LANDSCAPE
• POOL AND PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoning: RSF3
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (association fee optional); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces, approx. 21 x 30)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer / sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area reported (living area approx. 1,215; total building area approx. 1,943)
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Awnings; Trees and landscaped yard; Lakefront with water access and lake view (Lake Shamrock), approximately 100 feet of frontage; Lot dimensions approx. 93 x 120 (0.24 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining; Split bedroom floor plan; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-55/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#537 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Venice Elementary School (math 80% / reading 77%, grade A, #141 of 2,144 statewide, top 7%, 608 students, 43% FRL); Venice Senior High School (math 67% / reading 61%, grade B-, #86 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,584 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1254 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $298k implies a 287% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,885 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-53,861
• Equity at exit: $44,433

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-67,978
• Equity at exit: $25,766

Cash invested: $83,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34293

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 1254
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,416/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,285

Max offer price $297,183

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $80	+0% $-5	+5% $-89	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-95	+0% $-5	+5% $85	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $71	base $-5	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,500
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $298,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $298,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $298,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $298,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $298,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $298,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $298,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $298,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $298,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $298,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $298,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $298,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $298,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $298,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $298,000 Active
18. 1993-01-20
    soldstatus $77,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,416 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,473 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,057/yr (+$88/mo · 74.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,693
• − Property taxes: −$1,416
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,188
• − Management: −$2,188
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$5,297
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,271
• After-tax cash flow: $1,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Venice Gardens

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #537
• US rank: #10074

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venice Gardens, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 50,278
• Household income: $90,038
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 548.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -355.64%
• Current HPI: 270.5242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+287.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $298,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,416 · +18.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.