459 Hart St · Dallas, TX 75203

$499,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,350 sqft · Land · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 4,225 sqft lot $212/sqft · 301% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand-new custom build showcasing unobstructed Downtown Dallas views in the highly sought-after Bottom District. A rare opportunity to own a home with both stunning skyline views and close proximity to the city. Inside, you’ll find soaring ceilings filling the home with natural light, a floor-to-ceiling fireplace, and a primary suite featuring downtown views. The expansive en suite bathroom includes a glass-enclosed shower-tub combination, along with all the modern finishes you could want with the added peace of mind of a builder’s warranty.

Key facts

• 4,225 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-630 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $388k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (38.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,085/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 948% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($469k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $308,516 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.84%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,358
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: 301.26%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $222,402
• Equity at exit: $449,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $669,940
• Equity at exit: $969,447

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75203

• Home prices YoY: 31.8%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,085 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,115/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $-630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,883

Max offer price $387,674

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
404 N Moore St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1719	$2,750	$1.60	7d	1	0.10mi
420 N Denley Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,500	$1.57	43d	1	0.20mi
815 E 5th St Unit 209 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1946	$3,200	$1.64	24d	1	0.60mi
604 N Ewing Ave Unit 107 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1946	$3,150	$1.62	43d	1	0.62mi
1525 Doyle Ave Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$7,750	$4.53	7d	1	0.65mi
441 Avenue A Unit 1019524P Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$9,762	$5.74	22d	1	0.65mi
312 S Lancaster Ave Unit 104 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1941	$2,750	$1.42	43d	1	0.69mi
512 N Lancaster Ave Unit 6 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1980	$3,150	$1.59	11d	1	0.69mi
512 N Lancaster Ave #1 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1980	$3,450	$1.74	43d	1	0.69mi
512 N Lancaster Ave Unit 1-2 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1980	$2,950	$1.49	43d	1	0.69mi
1218 Grant St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2057	$2,699	$1.31	24d	1	0.87mi
1218 Grant St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2057	$2,699	$1.31	22d	1	0.87mi
519 High St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1869	$6,000	$3.21	43d	1	0.89mi
1422 Claude St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	2016	$2,411	$1.20	43d	1	0.90mi
512 Avenue L Dallas, TX	3.0	4.0	2551	$3,400	$1.33	7d	1	1.01mi
1339 Hendricks Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	3.0	2152	$4,000	$1.86	43d	1	1.01mi
308 E 7th St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2399	$3,600	$1.50	43d	1	1.04mi
306 E 7th St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2399	$3,900	$1.63	14d	1	1.04mi
428 N Patton Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2399	$3,900	$1.63	6d	1	1.05mi
302 E 7th St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2399	$3,600	$1.50	43d	1	1.05mi
324 N Patton Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2300	$3,499	$1.52	43d	1	1.06mi
1322 Strickland St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	2053	$3,299	$1.61	7d	1	1.11mi
1100 Corinth St Dallas, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1572	$3,595	$2.29	43d	10	1.15mi
1367 Branchwood Pl Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2511	$3,295	$1.31	5d	1	1.16mi
1366 Branchwood Pl Dallas, TX	3.0	4.0	2378	$3,999	$1.68	43d	1	1.17mi
1310 Branchwood Pl Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2396	$3,650	$1.52	15d	1	1.18mi
114 E Chester Ct Dallas, TX	3.0	3.0	1834	$3,000	$1.64	24d	1	1.18mi
112 E Oscar Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	3.0	2012	$3,400	$1.69	11d	1	1.18mi
1309 Arch Pl Dallas, TX	3.0	5.0	2443	$3,875	$1.59	43d	1	1.19mi
1390 Arch Pl Dallas, TX	4.0	4.5	2675	$3,875	$1.45	43d	1	1.20mi
1131 Forester Dr Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	1866	$2,600	$1.39	43d	1	1.31mi
1805 Browder St Unit 1019612P Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2357	$6,830	$2.90	6d	1	1.32mi
1805 Browder St #103 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2358	$8,000	$3.39	43d	1	1.32mi
627 Finley Ct Dallas, TX	3.0	3.0	2014	$3,450	$1.71	43d	1	1.36mi
1508 Seegar St Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1966	$3,124	$1.59	14d	9	1.36mi
1512 Seegar St Unit 1508 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2003	$3,250	$1.62	43d	1	1.37mi
901 Elsbeth St Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1976	$4,200	$2.13	17d	1	1.38mi
909 Elsbeth St Unit 1019507P Dallas, TX	3.0	3.0	1786	$9,981	$5.59	22d	1	1.38mi
1007 N Madison Ave Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1895	$3,500	$1.85	43d	1	1.46mi
1835 Norfolk Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1666	$2,200	$1.32	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-05
   price $510,000 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Brand-new custom build showcasing unobstructed Downtown Dallas views in the highly sought-after Bottom District. A rare opportunity to own a home with both stunning skyline views and close proximity to the city. Inside, you’ll find soaring ceilings filling the home with natural light, a floor-to-ceiling fireplace, and a primary suite featuring downtown views. The expansive en suite bathroom includes a glass-enclosed shower-tub combination, along with all the modern finishes you could want with the added peace of mind of a builder’s warranty.

2. 2026-04-14
   price $524,999 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Brand-new custom build showcasing unobstructed Downtown Dallas views in the highly sought-after Bottom District. A rare opportunity to own a home with both stunning skyline views and close proximity to the city. Inside, you’ll find soaring ceilings filling the home with natural light, a floor-to-ceiling fireplace, and a primary suite featuring downtown views. The expansive en suite bathroom includes a glass-enclosed shower-tub combination, along with all the modern finishes you could want with the added peace of mind of a builder’s warranty.

3. 2026-03-25
   listed $540,000 Active 559-char remark

   Show marketing remark (559 chars)

   Brand-new custom build showcasing unobstructed Downtown Dallas views in the highly sought-after Bottom District. A rare opportunity to own a home with both stunning skyline views and close proximity to the city. Inside, you’ll find soaring ceilings filling the home with natural light, a floor-to-ceiling fireplace, and a primary suite featuring downtown views. The expansive en suite bathroom includes a glass-enclosed shower-tub combination, along with all the modern finishes you could want with the added peace of mind of a builder’s warranty.

4. 2026-02-02
   historical
5. 2026-01-28
   status Active
6. 2025-12-18
   status Pending
7. 2025-12-12
   historical Active Option Contract
8. 2025-11-24
   listed $549,000 Active
9. 2025-05-31
   historical
10. 2025-05-15
    price $169,000
11. 2025-04-15
    listed $174,900 Active
12. 2025-02-27
    soldstatus Closed
13. 2025-02-11
    status Pending
14. 2025-01-30
    listed $108,000 Active
15. 2018-09-17
    soldstatus
16. 2014-07-25
    historical
17. 2014-01-24
    listed $14,500 Active
18. 2008-02-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,115 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,132 · $761/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,016/yr (+$585/mo · 331.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$2,115
• − Insurance: −$3,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,962
• − Management: −$2,962
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$16,778
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,027
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,775
• Household income: $46,989
• Rent vs Own: 62.1% rent · 37.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 948.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 31% Two or more races 17% White 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 51% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 86.64%
• Current HPI: 358.9507
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.72%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3417.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $510,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $524,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $540,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-12-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-12 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $549,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-15 Listed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2025-02-27 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2025-02-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-01-30 Listed $108,000 NTREIS
• 2018-09-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2014-01-24 Listed $14,500 NTREIS
• 2008-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+16.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,115 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.