5123 Hagerman · Cibolo, TX 78108

$304,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,378 sqft · SingleFamily · 62 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot Est $326k · 6% under $92/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

The Cumberland- The second floor of this new two-story home is host to a flexible and spacious game room, great for entertaining and hosting. Off the foyer are three secondary bedrooms, leading to an inviting open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio. The luxe owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner on the first floor, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• 4,791 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance resource available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $275 quarterly; Association transfer fee $450; Community amenities include a pool and park/playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water and sewer: GVSUD; Gas supplier: CenterPoint; Electricity supplier: GVEC; Garbage service: Frontier
• Home design: New construction by Lennar; Single-family home; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Cement fiber exterior
• Construction: Built new (age approximately 0); Cement fiber exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Privacy fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Island kitchen; Breakfast bar; Walk-in pantry; Stove/Range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bath; Bedroom 2: 10 x 12; Bedroom 3: 11 x 12; Bedroom 4: 14 x 12; Master bedroom dimensions: 12 x 15
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Master bath is shower only (9 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric and natural gas heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan with 1 living area; Island kitchen with breakfast bar; Walk-in pantry; Utility room inside; Cable TV available; Laundry on main level; Walk-in closets; Game room (2nd level)
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry on main level; Utility room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-268 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Cibolo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#261 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cibolo Valley El (math 36% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 761 students, 33% FRL); Dobie J H (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 1,347 students, 31% FRL); Byron P Steele Ii H S (math 68% / reading 66%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,716 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,501 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $325,786
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2268 Monument Hl	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,378 (0%)	1mo	$303,999	$128	99
2114 Monument Hl	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,378 (0%)	1mo	$308,999	$130	99
5019 Palo Duro	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,378 (0%)	2mo	$301,999	$127	98
5031 Palo Duro	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,269 (-5%)	2mo	$287,999	$127	91
647 Sumpter Banks	0.00mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,241 (-6%)	3mo	$354,000	$158	81
117 Sailors Way	0.05mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,552 (+7%)	2mo	$385,000	$151	77
5121 El Capitan	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-15%)	0mo	$282,499	$140	75
5027 Palo Duro	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-15%)	2mo	$277,999	$137	74
624 Fluted Shls	0.20mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,539 (+7%)	1mo	$369,500	$146	72
317 Singing Vly	0.19mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,677 (+13%)	0mo	$375,500	$140	63
567 Lilac	0.23mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,710 (+14%)	0mo	$359,900	$133	59
349 Wagon Wheel	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,447 (+3%)	3mo	$255,000	$104	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.47% appreciation · 2.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-20,524
• Equity at exit: $95,804

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,618
• Equity at exit: $121,111

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78108

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 761
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,445 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,575/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,785

Max offer price $266,187

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-57	-5% $-163	+0% $-268	+5% $-374	+10% $-479
Rent	-10% $-461	-5% $-365	+0% $-268	+5% $-172	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-115	-0.5pp $-191	base $-268	+0.5pp $-347	+1.0pp $-428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2114 Monument HL Cibolo, TX	4.0	3.0	2378	$2,400	$1.01	18d	1	0.02mi
514 Diamond Shls Cibolo, TX	5.0	3.5	2678	$2,595	$0.97	24d	1	0.13mi
611 Overlook Rdg Cibolo, TX	5.0	2.5	2539	$2,600	$1.02	0d	1	0.13mi
611 Overlook Rdg Cibolo, TX	5.0	2.5	2539	$2,600	$1.02	4d	1	0.13mi
602 Steele Shallows Cibolo, TX	5.0	3.5	2859	$2,800	$0.98	26d	1	0.22mi
568 Lilac Shls Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.0	1847	$2,200	$1.19	19d	1	0.26mi
528 Whispering Wl Cibolo, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2059	$2,581	$1.25	0d	2	0.38mi
204 Steele Way Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.0	1901	$2,175	$1.14	0d	1	0.40mi
325 Longhorn Way Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,800	$1.09	4d	1	0.60mi
417 Cattle Run Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2382	$2,095	$0.88	14d	1	0.68mi
417 Cattle Run Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2382	$2,095	$0.88	3d	1	0.68mi
137 Niemietz Cv Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2419	$2,200	$0.91	26d	1	0.68mi
132 Niemietz Cv Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,900	$1.19	26d	1	0.70mi
213 Lieck Cv Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2525	$2,495	$0.99	0d	1	0.76mi
233 Rattlesnake Way Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	1816	$1,855	$1.02	26d	1	0.81mi
429 Prickly Pear Dr Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	1971	$2,100	$1.07	4d	1	0.85mi
101 Santa Clara St Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$1,750	$1.01	14d	1	0.87mi
517 Saddle Back Trl Cibolo, TX	4.0	3.5	2597	$2,400	$0.92	0d	1	0.90mi
237 Hinsdale Run Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.5	2022	$2,200	$1.09	24d	1	1.03mi
513 Chelson Hunt Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2453	$2,800	$1.14	26d	1	1.04mi
201 Canyon Vis Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2396	$2,000	$0.83	45d	1	1.12mi
332 Caleb Ct Schertz, TX	3.0	2.5	1609	$1,695	$1.05	26d	1	1.12mi
332 Caleb Ct Schertz, TX	3.0	2.5	1609	$1,695	$1.05	22d	1	1.12mi
330/332 Caleb Ct Schertz, TX	3.0	2.5	1609	$1,695	$1.05	6d	1	1.13mi
216 Golden Vis Cibolo, TX	4.0	3.5	3242	$2,400	$0.74	17d	1	1.19mi
804 Red Riv Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,950	$1.18	19d	1	1.23mi
201 Gatewood Fls Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$1,949	$0.87	26d	1	1.36mi
305 Colbert Fry Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.0	1901	$2,350	$1.24	26d	1	1.38mi
117 Grand Rpds Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,050	$1.09	6d	1	1.38mi
225 Hinge Chase Cibolo, TX	5.0	2.5	3152	$2,275	$0.72	26d	1	1.41mi
220 Heavenly Vw Cibolo, TX	5.0	4.0	3361	$2,900	$0.86	0d	1	1.41mi
244 Heavenly Vw Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1877	$1,895	$1.01	0d	1	1.45mi
121 Little Wichita Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,895	$1.00	26d	1	1.48mi
509 Sea Headrig Dr Cibolo, TX	4.0	3.0	2731	$2,200	$0.81	26d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $304,999 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,999 Price Change 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,999 Price Change 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $304,999 Price Change 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $304,999 Price Change 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $304,999 Price Change 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $304,999 Price Change 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   price $305,999 Price Change 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $305,499 Price Change 53 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,499 Price Change 52 DOM
11. 2026-05-21
    price $329,999
12. 2026-05-12
    price $329,499
13. 2026-04-09
    listed $328,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$4,575
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,347
• − Management: −$2,347
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$8,516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,044
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level and no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior, updating the flooring in the bathrooms, and upgrading the kitchen appliances.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839480
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,790
• Composite: 44.02/100
• National rank: #2886
• State rank: #152 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cibolo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #6177

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cibolo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 49,784
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,784
• Household income: $113,004
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 521.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 22% Black 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Current HPI: 182.7296
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.42%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $329,999 LERA
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $329,499 LERA
• 2026-04-09 Listed $328,999 LERA