10201 N 99th Ave Unit 49B · Peoria, AZ 85345

$19,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 47 Days on market

Built 1973 $21/sqft · 26% below area Est $26k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ON LEASED LAND: Dont miss out on this 2 bedroom 2 bath split floorplan. Spacious front room and kitchen separates the 2 bedrooms. Rare find with a 1 car garage as well. Back yard is fenced with Block. AC was replaced 2023. Community has been and still in process of being updated. Pool and spa, pickleball court and dog park complete. Rec center is supposed to be completed May 2026. Community is a 55 plus age restricted gated resort community.

Key facts

• Pickleball court
• Fenced back yard
• Community pool

Tags

• FENCED BACK YARD
• PICKLEBALL COURT
• COMMUNITY POOL
• COMMUNITY SPA
• GATED RESORT COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $19k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $19k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 76.7% vs local median 3.3% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 333 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $131 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $570 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 76.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 251.63%
• DSCR: 12.20
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $25,760
• List price: $19,000
• Delta: -26.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10201 N 99th Ave Unit 49B	0.00mi	2/2.0	896 (0%)	0mo	$19,000	$21	100
10201 N 99th Ave #44	0.00mi	2/2.0	896 (0%)	6mo	$28,500	$32	95
10201 N 99th Ave Unit 135F	0.06mi	2/2.0	896 (0%)	6mo	$17,500	$20	92
10201 N 99th Ave #49	0.06mi	2/1.8	896 (0%)	10mo	$19,000	$21	88
10201 N 99th Ave #137	0.06mi	2/1.0	840 (-6%)	13mo	$48,000	$57	72
10701 N 99th Ave #122	0.46mi	2/2.0	910 (+2%)	14mo	$44,000	$48	64
10701 N 99th Ave #178	0.46mi	2/1.0	840 (-6%)	0mo	$15,000	$18	64
10701 N 99th Ave #65	0.36mi	2/2.0	796 (-11%)	5mo	$55,000	$69	60
10701 N 99th Ave #101	0.46mi	1/1.0 (-1)	880 (-2%)	13mo	$23,900	$27	56
10701 N 99th Ave #136	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+14%)	6mo	$55,000	$54	51
10701 N 99th Ave #90	0.46mi	2/2.0	796 (-11%)	16mo	$45,500	$57	46
10701 N 99 Ave #128	0.46mi	2/2.0	792 (-12%)	17mo	$39,500	$50	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.09×
• Total profit: $64,304
• Equity at exit: $2,833

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 26.03×
• Total profit: $133,136
• Equity at exit: $1,643

Cash invested: $5,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85345

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,578 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$100
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$24 /mo · $285/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $1,116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $166

Max offer price $19,000

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,750
• Closing costs: $570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10110 N 97th Dr Unit A Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.5	1025	$1,500	$1.46	24d	1	0.21mi
10104 N 96th Dr Unit A Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,750	$1.63	24d	1	0.36mi
10822 N Balboa Dr Sun City, AZ	2.0	1.0	942	$3,000	$3.18	24d	1	0.48mi
10701 N 99th Ave Unit 230 Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	784	$1,099	$1.40	20d	1	0.49mi
9680 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,540	$1.81	2d	9	0.72mi
9625 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1485	$2,136	$1.44	5d	7	0.89mi
11411 N 91st Ave Unit 213 Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	858	$1,399	$1.63	24d	1	1.28mi
8940 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	897	$1,400	$1.56	17d	1	1.30mi
8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,595	$1.49	3d	1	1.38mi
8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,595	$1.49	24d	1	1.38mi
8757 W Peoria Ave Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0	564	$1,539	$2.73	3d	14	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $19,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $19,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $19,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $19,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $19,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-04-18
   listed $24,900 Active 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   ON LEASED LAND: Dont miss out on this 2 bedroom 2 bath split floorplan. Spacious front room and kitchen separates the 2 bedrooms. Rare find with a 1 car garage as well. Back yard is fenced with Block. AC was replaced 2023. Community has been and still in process of being updated. Pool and spa, pickleball court and dog park complete. Rec center is supposed to be completed May 2026. Community is a 55 plus age restricted gated resort community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,064
• − Property taxes: −$285
• − Insurance: −$95
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,515
• − Management: −$1,515
• − Depreciation: −$553
• Taxable income: $13,912
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,339
• After-tax cash flow: $10,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria Unified School District (4237)
• NCES district ID: 0406250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,171
• Composite: 34.62/100
• National rank: #5152
• State rank: #64 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #3603

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peoria, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 206,687
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 60,918
• Household income: $67,380
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1879.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.77%
• Current HPI: 328.1069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.62%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $24,900 ARMLS