29 Butternut St · Lyons, NY 14489

$114,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,684 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1860 8,276 sqft lot Est $148k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why rent when you can buy?! This home features a new hot water heater, new water service, lots of light and hardwoods throughout. Delayed Showings until Sunday 11/8 at 8 am

Key facts

• Living space
• Manageable lot
• Village home

Tags

• VILLAGE HOME
• LIVING SPACE
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• MANAGEABLE LOT
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#270 in NY, #4,307 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Lyons Central School District (town): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #549 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $115k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,453 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.52%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,192
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Butternut St	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (-6%)	5mo	$100,000	$63	79
166 Water St	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,732 (+3%)	8mo	$88,000	$51	73
30 Cherry St	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,698 (+1%)	14mo	$175,000	$103	72
40 Spencer St	0.59mi	4/1.5	1,660 (-1%)	4mo	$149,900	$90	66
7 High St	0.06mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,490 (-12%)	8mo	$115,000	$77	66
98 Canal St	0.40mi	4/1.0	1,881 (+12%)	5mo	$43,000	$23	56
60 Jackson St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,676 (-0%)	13mo	$85,000	$51	49
121 Geneva St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,524 (-10%)	6mo	$125,000	$82	48
46 Spencer St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,788 (+6%)	8mo	$230,000	$129	47
21 Maple St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	5mo	$144,900	$98	47
41 Holley St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,868 (+11%)	3mo	$165,000	$88	42
88 Maple St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,434 (-15%)	10mo	$160,000	$112	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $89,080
• Equity at exit: $103,511

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.52×
• Total profit: $241,837
• Equity at exit: $223,225

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14489

• Home prices YoY: 14.2%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,737 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,024/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,213

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-19
   listed $114,900 Active
4. 2021-02-16
   soldstatus $69,500 Closed Sale or Rented 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Why rent when you can buy?! This home features a new hot water heater, new water service, lots of light and hardwoods throughout. Delayed Showings until Sunday 11/8 at 8 am

5. 2021-02-10
   soldstatus $69,500
6. 2020-12-07
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Why rent when you can buy?! This home features a new hot water heater, new water service, lots of light and hardwoods throughout. Delayed Showings until Sunday 11/8 at 8 am

7. 2020-11-18
   price $69,900 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Why rent when you can buy?! This home features a new hot water heater, new water service, lots of light and hardwoods throughout. Delayed Showings until Sunday 11/8 at 8 am

8. 2020-11-05
   listed $74,900 Active 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Why rent when you can buy?! This home features a new hot water heater, new water service, lots of light and hardwoods throughout. Delayed Showings until Sunday 11/8 at 8 am

9. 2018-09-12
   soldstatus $40,000 Closed Sale or Rented 116-char remark

   Show marketing remark (116 chars)

   Sold "As Is" Basement, Foundation, HVAC, Water heater/Fuel all unknown Contractors Welcome NOW PENDING

10. 2018-08-27
    status Pending Sale 116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    Sold "As Is" Basement, Foundation, HVAC, Water heater/Fuel all unknown Contractors Welcome NOW PENDING

11. 2018-07-25
    listed $39,900 Active 116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (116 chars)

    Sold "As Is" Basement, Foundation, HVAC, Water heater/Fuel all unknown Contractors Welcome NOW PENDING

12. 1999-11-23
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,024 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,024 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$3,024
• − Insurance: −$1,241
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $3,463
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$831
• After-tax cash flow: $4,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyons Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -28.00%
• Median HH income: $43,076
• Composite: 31.73/100
• National rank: #5909
• State rank: #549 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lyons

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #4307

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyons, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,016

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.65%
• Current HPI: 311.1445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+155.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-31 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $114,900 CNYIS
• 2021-02-16 Sold (MLS) $69,500 UNYREIS
• 2021-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records
• 2020-12-07 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2020-11-18 Price Changed $69,900 UNYREIS
• 2020-11-05 Listed $74,900 UNYREIS
• 2018-09-12 Sold (MLS) $40,000 UNYREIS
• 2018-08-27 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2018-07-25 Listed $39,900 UNYREIS
• 1999-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,024 · +71.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.