3130 Raking Leaf Dr · Abingdon, MD 21009

$319,333

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,236 sqft · Townhouse public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2006 2,000 sqft lot $258/sqft · 8% above area Est $332k · at est. $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick front Townhome in Autumn Run! 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths. 2 level bump out. 9ft ceilings on the first floor. Large family room with a bay window. Kitchen features 42in cabinets, gas stove, stainless steel appliances, walk-in pantry, table space and an island. Vinyl floors throughout the main level. Sunroom for additional living space. Slider doors lead to the deck and patio. Fully fenced backyard features 5 foot privacy fence and patio. Primary bedroom with vaulted ceilings, large walk-in closet and full bath. 2 additional bedrooms also have vaulted ceilings. New water heater in 2026. Basement walk-out to backyard. Home backs to common area. 2 assigned parking spots in front of the house. Seller is providing a 1 year Cinch home warranty for the buyer. Conveniently located minutes from I-95, Route 40, and Route 7.

Key facts

• $43 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Abingdon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,623 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,504
• List price: $319,333
• Delta: -3.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2945 Raking Leaf Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,280 (+4%)	4mo	$310,000	$242	88
3130 Raking Leaf Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,380 (+12%)	1mo	$319,333	$231	80
2995 Raking Leaf Dr	0.14mi	3/3.0	1,380 (+12%)	23mo	$315,000	$228	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-47,751
• Equity at exit: $47,614

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,891
• Equity at exit: $27,610

Cash invested: $89,413 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21009

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,456 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,310/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,586

Max offer price $301,178

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,833
• Closing costs: $9,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2842 Beckon Dr Unit 1 Edgewood, MD	4.0	1.5	1296	$2,100	$1.62	43d	1	0.76mi
1046 Agate Dr Unit 1 Edgewood, MD	4.0	2.5	1440	$2,150	$1.49	17d	1	0.88mi
102 Waldon Rd Abingdon, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	794	$1,675	$2.11	1d	38	1.01mi
3405 McCurley Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1263	$3,264	$2.58	2d	29	1.02mi
3184 Ebbtide Dr Edgewood, MD	3.0	3.0	1224	$2,600	$2.12	20d	1	1.32mi
3184 Ebbtide Dr Edgewood, MD	3.0	3.0	1224	$2,600	$2.12	43d	1	1.32mi
3101 White Oak Dr Abingdon, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	576	$1,630	$2.83	3d	5	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr
• Likely covers: watergasparking

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 826-char remark

   Show marketing remark (826 chars)

   Brick front Townhome in Autumn Run! 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths. 2 level bump out. 9ft ceilings on the first floor. Large family room with a bay window. Kitchen features 42in cabinets, gas stove, stainless steel appliances, walk-in pantry, table space and an island. Vinyl floors throughout the main level. Sunroom for additional living space. Slider doors lead to the deck and patio. Fully fenced backyard features 5 foot privacy fence and patio. Primary bedroom with vaulted ceilings, large walk-in closet and full bath. 2 additional bedrooms also have vaulted ceilings. New water heater in 2026. Basement walk-out to backyard. Home backs to common area. 2 assigned parking spots in front of the house. Seller is providing a 1 year Cinch home warranty for the buyer. Conveniently located minutes from I-95, Route 40, and Route 7.

2. 2026-05-01
   listed $319,333 Active 826-char remark

   Show marketing remark (826 chars)

   Brick front Townhome in Autumn Run! 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths. 2 level bump out. 9ft ceilings on the first floor. Large family room with a bay window. Kitchen features 42in cabinets, gas stove, stainless steel appliances, walk-in pantry, table space and an island. Vinyl floors throughout the main level. Sunroom for additional living space. Slider doors lead to the deck and patio. Fully fenced backyard features 5 foot privacy fence and patio. Primary bedroom with vaulted ceilings, large walk-in closet and full bath. 2 additional bedrooms also have vaulted ceilings. New water heater in 2026. Basement walk-out to backyard. Home backs to common area. 2 assigned parking spots in front of the house. Seller is providing a 1 year Cinch home warranty for the buyer. Conveniently located minutes from I-95, Route 40, and Route 7.

3. 2026-04-17
   historical $319,333 826-char remark

   Show marketing remark (826 chars)

   Brick front Townhome in Autumn Run! 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths. 2 level bump out. 9ft ceilings on the first floor. Large family room with a bay window. Kitchen features 42in cabinets, gas stove, stainless steel appliances, walk-in pantry, table space and an island. Vinyl floors throughout the main level. Sunroom for additional living space. Slider doors lead to the deck and patio. Fully fenced backyard features 5 foot privacy fence and patio. Primary bedroom with vaulted ceilings, large walk-in closet and full bath. 2 additional bedrooms also have vaulted ceilings. New water heater in 2026. Basement walk-out to backyard. Home backs to common area. 2 assigned parking spots in front of the house. Seller is providing a 1 year Cinch home warranty for the buyer. Conveniently located minutes from I-95, Route 40, and Route 7.

4. 2022-11-15
   soldstatus $287,500
5. 2022-10-31
   soldstatus $287,500 Closed 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   Welcome home to 3130 Raking Leaf Dr! This gorgeous townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,236 sqft of charm. The curb appeal alone is worth the investment! A brick edifice faces a manicured front yard, and the bay window adds to the appeal. Step into a bright living area that features a powder room, and flows into a large kitchen area. The eat-in kitchen easily accommodates seating for 6 and a warm breakfast nook. Cabinetry and pantry for storage and a kitchen island. Right off the breakfast nook is a patio with sliding doors, great for that indoor/outdoor living. The primary bedroom features a spacious onsuite and walk-in closet. All bedrooms are blanketed with new carpet. The lower level is extremely spacious and leads out to an expansive backyard, perfect for entertaining, and active pets. Located in a coveted community and near amazing amenities, you’ll definitely want a closer look at this beautiful property. Call today!

6. 2022-09-27
   status Pending 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   Welcome home to 3130 Raking Leaf Dr! This gorgeous townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,236 sqft of charm. The curb appeal alone is worth the investment! A brick edifice faces a manicured front yard, and the bay window adds to the appeal. Step into a bright living area that features a powder room, and flows into a large kitchen area. The eat-in kitchen easily accommodates seating for 6 and a warm breakfast nook. Cabinetry and pantry for storage and a kitchen island. Right off the breakfast nook is a patio with sliding doors, great for that indoor/outdoor living. The primary bedroom features a spacious onsuite and walk-in closet. All bedrooms are blanketed with new carpet. The lower level is extremely spacious and leads out to an expansive backyard, perfect for entertaining, and active pets. Located in a coveted community and near amazing amenities, you’ll definitely want a closer look at this beautiful property. Call today!

7. 2022-09-27
   price $290,000 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   Welcome home to 3130 Raking Leaf Dr! This gorgeous townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,236 sqft of charm. The curb appeal alone is worth the investment! A brick edifice faces a manicured front yard, and the bay window adds to the appeal. Step into a bright living area that features a powder room, and flows into a large kitchen area. The eat-in kitchen easily accommodates seating for 6 and a warm breakfast nook. Cabinetry and pantry for storage and a kitchen island. Right off the breakfast nook is a patio with sliding doors, great for that indoor/outdoor living. The primary bedroom features a spacious onsuite and walk-in closet. All bedrooms are blanketed with new carpet. The lower level is extremely spacious and leads out to an expansive backyard, perfect for entertaining, and active pets. Located in a coveted community and near amazing amenities, you’ll definitely want a closer look at this beautiful property. Call today!

8. 2022-09-06
   listed $279,900 Active 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   Welcome home to 3130 Raking Leaf Dr! This gorgeous townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,236 sqft of charm. The curb appeal alone is worth the investment! A brick edifice faces a manicured front yard, and the bay window adds to the appeal. Step into a bright living area that features a powder room, and flows into a large kitchen area. The eat-in kitchen easily accommodates seating for 6 and a warm breakfast nook. Cabinetry and pantry for storage and a kitchen island. Right off the breakfast nook is a patio with sliding doors, great for that indoor/outdoor living. The primary bedroom features a spacious onsuite and walk-in closet. All bedrooms are blanketed with new carpet. The lower level is extremely spacious and leads out to an expansive backyard, perfect for entertaining, and active pets. Located in a coveted community and near amazing amenities, you’ll definitely want a closer look at this beautiful property. Call today!

9. 2022-09-06
   price $279,900 957-char remark

   Show marketing remark (957 chars)

   Welcome home to 3130 Raking Leaf Dr! This gorgeous townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,236 sqft of charm. The curb appeal alone is worth the investment! A brick edifice faces a manicured front yard, and the bay window adds to the appeal. Step into a bright living area that features a powder room, and flows into a large kitchen area. The eat-in kitchen easily accommodates seating for 6 and a warm breakfast nook. Cabinetry and pantry for storage and a kitchen island. Right off the breakfast nook is a patio with sliding doors, great for that indoor/outdoor living. The primary bedroom features a spacious onsuite and walk-in closet. All bedrooms are blanketed with new carpet. The lower level is extremely spacious and leads out to an expansive backyard, perfect for entertaining, and active pets. Located in a coveted community and near amazing amenities, you’ll definitely want a closer look at this beautiful property. Call today!

10. 2022-08-22
    historical $299,900 957-char remark

    Show marketing remark (957 chars)

    Welcome home to 3130 Raking Leaf Dr! This gorgeous townhome features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,236 sqft of charm. The curb appeal alone is worth the investment! A brick edifice faces a manicured front yard, and the bay window adds to the appeal. Step into a bright living area that features a powder room, and flows into a large kitchen area. The eat-in kitchen easily accommodates seating for 6 and a warm breakfast nook. Cabinetry and pantry for storage and a kitchen island. Right off the breakfast nook is a patio with sliding doors, great for that indoor/outdoor living. The primary bedroom features a spacious onsuite and walk-in closet. All bedrooms are blanketed with new carpet. The lower level is extremely spacious and leads out to an expansive backyard, perfect for entertaining, and active pets. Located in a coveted community and near amazing amenities, you’ll definitely want a closer look at this beautiful property. Call today!

11. 2009-02-06
    soldstatus $190,000
12. 2009-01-16
    soldstatus $195,000 Sold
13. 2009-01-13
    historical
14. 2009-01-05
    status
15. 2009-01-02
    historical
16. 2008-10-06
    price $195,000
17. 2008-08-28
    price $220,000
18. 2008-06-30
    price $259,992
19. 2008-06-12
    listed $280,000
20. 2008-04-19
    historical
21. 2008-02-13
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,310 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,896 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$585/yr (+$49/mo · 25.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,888
• − Property taxes: −$2,310
• − Insurance: −$1,597
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,358
• − Management: −$2,358
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$9,290
• Taxable loss: −$6,841
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,642
• After-tax cash flow: $409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Abingdon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abingdon, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 33,679
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 33,679
• Household income: $121,660
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.25%
• Current HPI: 251.4376
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.12%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+14.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $319,333 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Coming Soon $319,333 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $287,500 Public Records
• 2022-10-31 Sold (MLS) $287,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-27 Price Changed $290,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-06 Listed $279,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-06 Price Changed $279,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-22 Coming Soon $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2009-01-16 Sold (MLS) $195,000 MRIS
• 2009-01-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-01-05 Relisted — MRIS
• 2009-01-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-10-06 Price Changed $195,000 MRIS
• 2008-08-28 Price Changed $220,000 MRIS
• 2008-06-30 Price Changed $259,992 MRIS
• 2008-06-12 Listed $280,000 MRIS
• 2008-04-19 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-02-13 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,310 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.