616 S Atkinson Ave · Roswell, NM 88203

$20,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 909 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1975 5,500 sqft lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling ALL investors! Bring this little gem back to life!

Key facts

• 5,500 sq ft lot
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $757 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#8 in NM, #4,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Roswell Independent Schools (town): math 11% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 29 in NM (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 88 units permitted in Chaves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 51.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 162.17%
• DSCR: 8.22
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.03×
• Total profit: $44,966
• Equity at exit: $2,982

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.08×
• Total profit: $101,248
• Equity at exit: $1,729

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88203

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $105/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $757

Break-even live

Break-even rent $154

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
208 W 8th St Unit 003 Roswell, NM	2.0	1.0	850	$900	$1.06	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $20,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $20,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $20,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $20,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $20,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $20,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $20,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $20,000 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    listed $20,000 Active 59-char remark

    Show marketing remark (59 chars)

    Calling ALL investors! Bring this little gem back to life!

18. 2025-01-31
    soldstatus Closed 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Rare investment opportunity! Fire-damaged property ready for transformation. Perfect for savvy investors looking to create value.

19. 2025-01-31
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Rare investment opportunity! Fire-damaged property ready for transformation. Perfect for savvy investors looking to create value.

20. 2025-01-14
    status Pending 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Rare investment opportunity! Fire-damaged property ready for transformation. Perfect for savvy investors looking to create value.

21. 2025-01-07
    listed $20,000 Active 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Rare investment opportunity! Fire-damaged property ready for transformation. Perfect for savvy investors looking to create value.

22. 2024-11-14
    price $22,500
23. 2024-10-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $105 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $160 · $13/mo
• Expected delta: +$55/yr (+$5/mo · 52.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$105
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,068
• − Management: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $9,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,233
• After-tax cash flow: $6,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roswell Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502250
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 23.00%
• Median HH income: $38,848
• Composite: 26.21/100
• National rank: #7262
• State rank: #16 of 29 in NM

Livability — Roswell

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #4339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roswell, NM
• County: Chaves County · 56,277 people
• City population: 56,277
• Metro: Roswell, NM
• Population (ZIP): 28,753
• Household income: $42,207
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 995.0

Population outlook (Chaves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,122 people
• By 2030: 66,351 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 66,818 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 66,928 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 65,474 · -1.0%
• By 2100: 58,943 · -10.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 65% White 31% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 38%

Political lean MEDSL · Chaves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.8) · D 26.8% · R 71.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -44.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.8 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+32.4 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.30%
• Current HPI: 151.1401
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Roswell, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $20,000 NMMLS
• 2025-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-31 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2025-01-14 Pending — NMMLS
• 2025-01-07 Listed $20,000 NMMLS
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $22,500 NMMLS
• 2024-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $105 · -36.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.