419 Main St · Newton, TX 75966

$39,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1940 0.64 ac lot $21/sqft · 74% below area ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1940-built, 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in central Newton, TX, offers 1,904 square feet of fixer-upper potential. Positioned across from the elementary school, it provides easy access to city amenities and is connected to all utilities including electric, water, sewer, and natural gas. Mature trees like live oaks and magnolias shade the lot, adding charm and privacy. The home's central location suits families or investors seeking a handyman's project. Bring all offers!

Key facts

• Shaded lot
• Central location
• Mature trees

Tags

• CENTRAL LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO CITY AMENITIES
• MATURE TREES
• SHADED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $737 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,355 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #661 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.18%
• DSCR: 4.52
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,461
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -74.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Houston St	0.23mi	3/2.0	2,070 (+9%)	12mo	$199,000	$96	65
709 S Houston St	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,084 (+10%)	7mo	$300,000	$144	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $52,752
• Equity at exit: $18,981

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.2%
• Equity multiple: 11.82×
• Total profit: $120,841
• Equity at exit: $30,088

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75966

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $737

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $765	-5% $751	+0% $737	+5% $723	+10% $710
Rent	-10% $636	-5% $686	+0% $737	+5% $788	+10% $838
Rate	-1.0pp $757	-0.5pp $747	base $737	+0.5pp $727	+1.0pp $716

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $39,900 Pending 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $39,900 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $39,900 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $39,900 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $39,900 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   price $39,900 475-char remark

   Show marketing remark (475 chars)

   This 1940-built, 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in central Newton, TX, offers 1,904 square feet of fixer-upper potential. Positioned across from the elementary school, it provides easy access to city amenities and is connected to all utilities including electric, water, sewer, and natural gas. Mature trees like live oaks and magnolias shade the lot, adding charm and privacy. The home's central location suits families or investors seeking a handyman's project. Bring all offers!

7. 2026-04-18
   status Active 475-char remark

   Show marketing remark (475 chars)

   This 1940-built, 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in central Newton, TX, offers 1,904 square feet of fixer-upper potential. Positioned across from the elementary school, it provides easy access to city amenities and is connected to all utilities including electric, water, sewer, and natural gas. Mature trees like live oaks and magnolias shade the lot, adding charm and privacy. The home's central location suits families or investors seeking a handyman's project. Bring all offers!

8. 2026-04-13
   status Pending 475-char remark

   Show marketing remark (475 chars)

   This 1940-built, 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in central Newton, TX, offers 1,904 square feet of fixer-upper potential. Positioned across from the elementary school, it provides easy access to city amenities and is connected to all utilities including electric, water, sewer, and natural gas. Mature trees like live oaks and magnolias shade the lot, adding charm and privacy. The home's central location suits families or investors seeking a handyman's project. Bring all offers!

9. 2026-04-02
   price $49,900 475-char remark

   Show marketing remark (475 chars)

   This 1940-built, 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in central Newton, TX, offers 1,904 square feet of fixer-upper potential. Positioned across from the elementary school, it provides easy access to city amenities and is connected to all utilities including electric, water, sewer, and natural gas. Mature trees like live oaks and magnolias shade the lot, adding charm and privacy. The home's central location suits families or investors seeking a handyman's project. Bring all offers!

10. 2026-03-05
    price $59,900 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    This 1940-built, 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in central Newton, TX, offers 1,904 square feet of fixer-upper potential. Positioned across from the elementary school, it provides easy access to city amenities and is connected to all utilities including electric, water, sewer, and natural gas. Mature trees like live oaks and magnolias shade the lot, adding charm and privacy. The home's central location suits families or investors seeking a handyman's project. Bring all offers!

11. 2026-02-06
    listed $69,900 Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    This 1940-built, 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in central Newton, TX, offers 1,904 square feet of fixer-upper potential. Positioned across from the elementary school, it provides easy access to city amenities and is connected to all utilities including electric, water, sewer, and natural gas. Mature trees like live oaks and magnolias shade the lot, adding charm and privacy. The home's central location suits families or investors seeking a handyman's project. Bring all offers!

12. 2006-01-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,231
• − Management: −$1,231
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $8,730
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,095
• After-tax cash flow: $6,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,557
• Composite: 24.26/100
• National rank: #7719
• State rank: #661 of 826 in TX

Livability — Newton

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1355
• US rank: #23337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,773

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 20% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 153.3331
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-42.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $39,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-18 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $49,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $59,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $69,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2006-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,244 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.