Is 29031 Rolling Tundra Way in Hockley, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 4.1% cap rate and $-449/mo modeled cash flow at a $249,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 29031 Rolling Tundra Way?

The modeled cap rate is 4.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,287/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 37.55

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +6.3/30.0
1% rule +4.2/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.0/10.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
DSCR +0.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$249,900

29031 Rolling Tundra Way · Hockley, TX 77447

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,893 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 5,401 sqft lot Garage $132/sqft · 18% below area Est $306k · 18% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

NEW! Lennar Core Watermill Collection "Knightley TX" Plan with Elevation "C" in The Grand Prairie! This single-story home has everything one needs right on one floor with three bedrooms, a study and an open living area. Two bedrooms share a bathroom in the hall at the front of the home, beside the versatile study. Adjacent is the open concept living area with access to a covered porch, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back corner for maximum privacy.

Key facts

Garage door opener
Private retreat
5,401 sq ft lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-449 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (28.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (8.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $178k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2097 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.

Recommended offer $178,046 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.92% ✗
Cap rate: 4.13%
Cash-on-cash: -7.71%
DSCR: 0.66
GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $306,491
List price: $249,900
Delta: -16.80%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16603 River Grass Trl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+0%)	1mo	$249,900	$132	93
27318 Meadowlark Cove Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,880 (-1%)	1mo	$322,940	$172	82
27322 Meadowlark Cove Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,908 (+1%)	1mo	$306,240	$161	81
27306 Meadowlark Cove Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-5%)	0mo	$283,990	$158	75
28907 Rustic Robin Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-5%)	1mo	$286,590	$160	71
16831 Spotted Oak Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,951 (+3%)	1mo	$259,990	$133	67
28830 Golden Wheat Ct	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,984 (+5%)	1mo	$275,990	$139	64
28834 Golden Wheat Ct	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (-6%)	1mo	$256,990	$145	64
29014 Fig Vine Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (+6%)	1mo	$313,900	$156	62
28838 Golden Wheat Ct	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (-8%)	0mo	$253,672	$146	61
16827 Spotted Oak Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,066 (+9%)	1mo	$265,491	$129	57
16822 Spotted Oak Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (-13%)	0mo	$251,990	$153	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -34.4%
Equity multiple: -0.08×
Total profit: $-75,466
Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

IRR: -76.9%
Equity multiple: -0.82×
Total profit: $-127,020
Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 133 active · 89 under contract
Months of supply: 4.8 mo (21%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $289,900 ($154/sqft)
Median days on market: 106 d
This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +5.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

Home prices YoY: -31.1%
Rents YoY: -1.6%
Active inventory: 2097
Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,287 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
Tax from tax record: −$742 /mo · $8,902/yr
Insurance: −$104
HOA: −$100
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
Net cashflow: $-449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,856

Max offer price $178,046

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-308	-5% $-379	+0% $-449	+5% $-520	+10% $-591
Rent	-10% $-630	-5% $-540	+0% $-449	+5% $-359	+10% $-269
Rate	-1.0pp $-324	-0.5pp $-386	base $-449	+0.5pp $-514	+1.0pp $-580

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $62,475
Closing costs: $7,497
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29023 Pearl Barley Way Unit 3656 Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2395	$2,300	$0.96	73d	1	0.07mi
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,990	$1.35	4d	1	0.47mi
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	93d	1	0.49mi
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	93d	1	0.53mi
17119 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	1994	$1,900	$0.95	71d	1	1.31mi
17222 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	2178	$1,935	$0.89	54d	1	1.32mi
17239 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	2260	$1,995	$0.88	62d	1	1.36mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Seller disclosure provided
HOA & community: Part of Grand Prairie Master CommunityAnnual association feeAssociation amenities: clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, playground, park, pool, trailsAssociation fee covers common areas and recreation facilities

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerConcrete road access
Home design: Residential propertyEntry level: first floorBuilt in 2024
Construction: Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt in 2024
Exterior features: Private fenced yardBack yard fencingSprinkler/irrigationPond on lotSubdivision settingAssociation pool

Interior

Kitchen: Convection ovenGas rangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigerator
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor, ~14 x 14)Bedroom (first floor, ~10 x 11)Bedroom (first floor, ~10 x 10)Office (first floor, ~11 x 9)
Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom (first floor)
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features: High ceilingsKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboPantryQuartz countersTub with shower
Laundry & utility: WasherDryerUtility room (first floor)

HOA detail $100/mo · $1,200/yr

Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $249,900 Active 32 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $249,900 Active 30 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $249,900 Active 29 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $249,900 Active 28 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $249,900 Active 27 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $249,900 Active 24 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $249,900 Active 22 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $249,900 Active 21 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $249,900 Active 19 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $249,900 Active 17 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $249,900 Active 16 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $249,900 Active 15 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $249,900 Active 14 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $249,900 Active 11 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $249,900 Active 10 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $249,900 Active 9 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $249,900 Active 8 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $249,900 Active 7 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $249,900 Active 6 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $249,900 Active 5 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $249,900 Active 4 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
2026-07-09

pricedays on marketlisting id $249,900 Active 2 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $255,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $255,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $255,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $255,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $255,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $255,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $255,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $255,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $255,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $255,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $255,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $255,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $255,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $255,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $255,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $255,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $255,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $255,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $255,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $255,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $255,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $255,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $255,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $255,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $255,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $255,000 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $8,902 · $742/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $8,902 · $742/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,448
− Mortgage interest: −$13,998
− Property taxes: −$8,902
− Insurance: −$1,250
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,196
− Management: −$2,196
− HOA: −$1,200
− Depreciation: −$7,270
Taxable loss: −$9,563

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,295
After-tax cash flow: $-3,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2024-built home is move-in ready with modern finishes and a good condition score. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping and plant maintenance — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both Deep cleaning throughout — A thorough clean makes the home more appealing and ready for showings ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population: 25,231
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 25,231
Household income: $116,925
Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
Current HPI: 249.6969
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-22.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

2026-07-07 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
2026-07-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-05-04 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
2024-11-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
2024-11-08 Pending — HARMLS
2024-11-07 Price Changed $321,990 HARMLS
2024-10-26 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
2024-10-22 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
2024-10-17 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
2024-10-13 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
2024-10-11 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
2024-10-05 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
2024-10-04 Listed $321,990 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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