431 Greenwich Ave · New Haven, CT 06519

$419,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,233 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1910 2,613 sqft lot $188/sqft · at area comps Est $411k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 2-family property located in the desirable Hill neighborhood of New Haven. This property features one 3-bedroom unit and one 4-bedroom unit, offering strong rental potential and flexibility for both investors and owner-occupants. The second-floor unit has been fully renovated and showcases oak kitchen cabinetry, vinyl plank flooring throughout, and a beautifully updated bathroom with marble-look tile, refinished tub, and new vanity. Additional upgrades include all new lighting fixtures and appliances, along with fresh paint throughout. The first-floor unit offers solid layout and space, with opportunity for value-add improvements. Tenants pay their own utilities, helping to

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Marble-look tile
• Refinished tub

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• OAK KITCHEN CABINETRY
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• MARBLE-LOOK TILE
• REFINISHED TUB

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected
• Home design: Multi-family property (2-family)
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete foundation; Gray exterior color
• Exterior features: Level lot; Vinyl siding; Gable roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 7 bedrooms total (across units)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating; Natural gas fuel; 40-gallon hot water tank
• Interior features: Full basement; Attic with hatch access; Total of 10 rooms (multi-family total rooms: 10)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×3bd/1.0ba + 1×4bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $936 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $468/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $420k).
• Recommended offer: $407k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 46 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,854/mo this rent would consume 117% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1321% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $118k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $420k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $407,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.55%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $410,748
• List price: $419,900
• Delta: 2.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 Howard Ave	0.20mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,311 (+4%)	11mo	$470,000	$203	71
37 Morris St	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,236 (+0%)	17mo	$360,000	$161	69
46 Liberty St	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,110 (-6%)	2mo	$320,000	$152	63
21 Edgar St	0.38mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,226 (-0%)	17mo	$315,000	$142	60
201 Howard Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	2,402 (+8%)	14mo	$320,000	$133	60
173 Rosette St	0.32mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,312 (+4%)	13mo	$212,625	$92	60
121 Plymouth St	0.13mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,539 (+14%)	10mo	$355,000	$140	54
220 Greenwich Ave	0.30mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,980 (-11%)	12mo	$350,000	$177	48
216 Greenwich Ave	0.31mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,980 (-11%)	17mo	$310,000	$157	48
189 Putnam St	0.40mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,450 (+10%)	15mo	$320,000	$131	47
171 Frank St	0.54mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,975 (-12%)	10mo	$340,000	$172	43
194 Frank St	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,918 (-14%)	17mo	$285,000	$149	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.81% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $284,375
• Equity at exit: $372,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.74×
• Total profit: $792,281
• Equity at exit: $797,107

Cash invested: $117,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06519

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,854 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax from tax record: −$522 /mo · $6,260/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,019
• Net cashflow: $936

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,669

Max offer price $419,900

Occupancy floor 76%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1	$2,299
1× unit	4	1	$2,555
Total (2 units)			$4,854

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,975
• Closing costs: $12,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36 Cassius St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	1872	$2,300	$1.23	43d	1	0.16mi
34 Cassius St Unit 36 New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	1872	$2,300	$1.23	43d	1	0.16mi
461 Howard Ave Unit 3 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1450	$1,950	$1.34	44d	1	0.26mi
84 Morris St Unit 2nd Fl New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	1410	$1,825	$1.29	2d	1	0.35mi
69 Adeline St Unit D New Haven, CT	3.0	1.5	2600	$2,250	$0.87	23d	1	0.59mi
9 Tower Ln New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0–2.0	1054	$5,394	$5.12	2d	74	0.73mi
50 Wood St West Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	2314	$2,400	$1.04	2d	1	0.88mi
37 Center St Unit 2 West Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	2500	$3,300	$1.32	2d	1	0.95mi
69 Center St West Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1530	$2,000	$1.31	14d	1	1.02mi
87 Union St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0–4.0	959	$5,543	$5.78	3d	16	1.09mi
813 Chapel St Unit 817-2B New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,745	$1.90	43d	1	1.18mi
203 Main St Unit 2nd fl West Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	1967	$2,400	$1.22	23d	1	1.23mi
408 Legion Ave Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1610	$2,000	$1.24	43d	1	1.27mi
41 Howe St New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1795	$3,750	$2.09	43d	1	1.27mi
41 Howe St Apt 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1795	$3,200	$1.78	23d	1	1.27mi
41 Howe St Apt 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1795	$3,200	$1.78	43d	1	1.27mi
526 Chapel St Unit B New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,500	$2.41	21d	1	1.28mi
5 Oak Pl West Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	2300	$1,900	$0.83	2d	1	1.28mi
43 Howe St New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1995	$4,995	$2.50	14d	1	1.28mi
271 Elm St Unit 2 West Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1435	$3,000	$2.09	23d	1	1.34mi
17 Treadwell St West Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	2814	$2,450	$0.87	23d	1	1.35mi
120 Dwight St New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1750	$3,175	$1.81	21d	2	1.35mi
82 Gilbert St West Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	2641	$2,400	$0.91	43d	1	1.37mi
441 Chapel St Unit 2A1 (shared) New Haven, CT	4.0	4.0	2151	$3,600	$1.67	2d	1	1.43mi
65 Edgewood Ave New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,695	$1.93	14d	1	1.46mi
280 3rd Ave Unit 2nd fl West Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1819	$2,500	$1.37	2d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $419,900 Under Contract 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $419,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $419,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $419,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $419,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $419,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $419,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $419,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-04-29
    listed $399,000 Active 1104-char remark
11. 2024-10-06
    historical
12. 2024-10-04
    listed $320,000 Active
13. 2024-08-21
    historical
14. 2024-08-01
    status Active
15. 2024-08-01
    historical
16. 2024-07-02
    status Active
17. 2024-07-01
    historical
18. 2024-04-21
    price $320,000
19. 2023-12-29
    listed $330,000 Active
20. 2022-03-22
    price $1,695
21. 2015-12-21
    soldstatus $126,000
22. 2015-11-25
    historical
23. 2015-11-18
    listed $124,900
24. 2008-12-02
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,260 · $522/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,623 · $635/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,363/yr (+$114/mo · 21.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,521
• − Property taxes: −$6,260
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,660
• − Management: −$4,660
• − Depreciation: −$12,215
• Taxable income: $4,833
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,160
• After-tax cash flow: $10,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 15,605
• Household income: $49,619
• Rent vs Own: 73.7% rent · 26.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1321.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Black 26% White 15% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 42% Other Indo-European 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.81%
• Current HPI: 377.4885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+235.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $419,900 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $399,000 Smart MLS
• 2024-10-06 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2024-10-04 Listed $320,000 Smart MLS
• 2024-08-21 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2024-08-01 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2024-08-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2024-07-02 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2024-07-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2024-04-21 Price Changed $320,000 Smart MLS
• 2023-12-29 Listed $330,000 Smart MLS
• 2022-03-22 Price Changed $1,695 RENT.
• 2015-12-21 Sold (MLS) $126,000 Smart MLS
• 2015-11-25 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2015-11-18 Listed $124,900 Smart MLS
• 2008-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,260 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.