406 Ellwood Beach Dr · Goleta, CA 93117

$3,600,000

15 bd · 12.0 ba · 6,819 sqft · MultiFamily · 73 Days on market

0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 5 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

-Prime Coastal Location: Located steps from Ellwood Beach in the highly sought-after Goleta submarket of Santa Barbara County, benefiting from strong renter demand driven by proximity to UCSB, Isla Vista spillover, and major South Coast employment centers. -Desirable Unit Mix: Two-bedroom layouts align with strong local demand from students, young professionals, and shared living arrangements common in the UCSB-adjacent rental market. -Clear Rental Upside: Current rents average $2,845 for two-bedroom/one-bath units and $3,031 for two-bedroom/two-bath units, while renovated units achieve $3,200 per month, demonstrating immediate mark-to-market potential. -Proven Renovation Strategy: Upgrades

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Parking
• Listed 73 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit rent examples: Four units at $2,845 (actual $11,380 total for that group), four units at $3,031 (actual $12,125 total for that group); Projected rents listed (example: $14,000 and $14,800 for unit groups)
• Financial info: Gross income: $282,060; Gross operating income: $273,957; Net operating income: $183,252; Total annual expenses: $90,705; Cap rate: 5.09%; Gross rent multiplier: 12.76; Vacancy rate: 3%; Income status: Scheduled
• HOA & community: Total of 8 units in the complex

Exterior

• Parking: Other garage/parking type
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: No water, sewer, or power details provided
• Home design: Residential income property; Single building; Single-story total floors with multiple levels indicated
• Construction: No construction material, foundation, or year built provided
• Exterior features: Other exterior structures; Lot approximately 0.26 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Four 2-bedroom units; Four 2-bedroom units (second unit type)
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: Four 1-bath units; Four 2-bath units
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Apartment units; Multi-level building
• Laundry & utility: No laundry/utility details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5 × 3-bed/2.4-bath units multifamily listed at $3.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-297/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $3.34M (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.87M (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.87M (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.9% in Goleta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#40 in CA, #1,510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Goleta Union Elementary (suburban): math 59% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #195 of 1,400 in CA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $28,663/mo this rent would consume 382% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 4402% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $25k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $108k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($3.38M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,866,300 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-573,762
• Equity at exit: $536,772

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-162,173
• Equity at exit: $311,262

Cash invested: $1,008,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93117

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 52.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $28,663 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18,879
• Tax from tax record: −$3,749 /mo · $44,994/yr
• Insurance: −$1,500
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,019
• Net cashflow: $-1,485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $30,542

Max offer price $3,337,754

Occupancy floor —

5-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 5× units	3	2.4	$28,665
Total (5 units)			$28,663

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $900,000
• Closing costs: $108,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $3,600,000 Pending 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $3,600,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $3,600,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $3,600,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-04-13
   status Active
6. 2026-03-26
   historical Backup Offers Accepted
7. 2026-03-16
   listed $3,600,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $44,994 · $3,749/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $44,994 · $3,749/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $343,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$201,656
• − Property taxes: −$44,994
• − Insurance: −$18,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$27,516
• − Management: −$27,516
• − Depreciation: −$104,727
• Taxable loss: −$80,454
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19,309
• After-tax cash flow: $1,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goleta Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0615510
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $70,375
• Composite: 56.2/100
• National rank: #2513
• State rank: #195 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Goleta

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #1510

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goleta, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• City population: 52,934
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,934
• Household income: $90,037
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4402.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Asian 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Chinese 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1327.27%
• Current HPI: 301.0456
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.49%
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Relisted — TheMLS
• 2026-03-26 Contingent — TheMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $3,600,000 TheMLS

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $44,994 · +401.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.