1561 NW 21st St · Crystal River, FL 34428

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,492 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1974 0.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OPPORTUNITY meets VALUE in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 2-car garage home with 1492 living area, positioned on a spacious . 44-acre parcel in Woodland Estates for ONLY $160,000. Located in the heart of Crystal River, this property presents an exceptional and economical investment opportunity with optional deeded water access to a private boat ramp—perfect for enjoying a waterfront lifestyle. The interior of the home features a split floor plan with both a living room and family room, generously sized guest bedrooms, eat-in kitchen, and a primary suite that includes a walk-in closet and full bathroom. This property is built on a solid foundation with “great bones, ” including a

Key facts

• Deeded water access
• Walk-in closet
• Full bathroom

Tags

• DEEDED WATER ACCESS
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FULL BATHROOM
• LARGE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Stucco construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Block and slab foundation; Built on a landscaped, rectangular, wooded lot; Paved city street frontage (publicly maintained)
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Sliding doors; Canal access and waterfront frontage; Waterfront access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Flooring: Concrete floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; High-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 2.1% in Crystal River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal River Primary School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 654 students, 70% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,243/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $160k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.88%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $416,268
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2001 NW 15th Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,455 (-2%)	1mo	$225,000	$155	89
3832 N Bluebird Ter	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+7%)	0mo	$314,000	$197	77
3901 N Nokomis Pt	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+10%)	2mo	$225,000	$137	74
3713 N Suwanee Pt	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+10%)	6mo	$485,000	$296	70
3911 N Nokomis Pt	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-6%)	8mo	$600,000	$429	70
3628 N Hiawatha Ter	0.18mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,380 (-8%)	5mo	$385,000	$279	68
1464 NW 22nd St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+12%)	8mo	$297,000	$177	66
3874 N Timucua Pt	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-1%)	8mo	$337,000	$228	62
3926 N Eagle Pt	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+15%)	7mo	$575,000	$335	61
1950 NW 19th St	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (+6%)	3mo	$620,000	$394	60
1411 NW 19th St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,674 (+12%)	5mo	$220,000	$131	58
2051 NW 17th St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,633 (+10%)	2mo	$455,000	$279	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-866
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $32,082
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34428

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,243 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $594/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $481	-5% $436	+0% $390	+5% $345	+10% $300
Rent	-10% $213	-5% $302	+0% $390	+5% $479	+10% $567
Rate	-1.0pp $471	-0.5pp $431	base $390	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1701 NW 22nd St Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,100	$1.37	21d	1	0.09mi
10906 W Cove Harbor Dr Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1409	$2,950	$2.09	21d	1	0.22mi
10785 W Spring Cir Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	21d	1	0.28mi
11057 W Harbor Watch Loop Crystal River, FL	2.0	1.5	1074	$1,495	$1.39	21d	1	0.29mi
11055 W Harbor Watch Loop Crystal River, FL	2.0	1.5	1074	$1,550	$1.44	21d	1	0.29mi
1950 NW 12th Ave Unit B Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	21d	1	0.38mi
10456 W Ashburn Ln Crystal River, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$977	$1.23	14d	1	0.63mi
3371 N Bay Ave Crystal River, FL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,750	$1.74	21d	1	0.99mi
373 NW 14th Pl Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1422	$3,000	$2.11	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    listed $160,000 Active
17. 2026-04-21
    historical
18. 2026-04-01
    status Active
19. 2026-03-31
    historical
20. 2026-03-06
    status Active
21. 2026-03-02
    status Pending
22. 2025-07-02
    price $220,000
23. 2025-07-02
    price $220,000
24. 2025-05-20
    price $165,000
25. 2025-05-20
    price $165,000
26. 2025-04-03
    listed $175,000 Active
27. 1998-01-12
    soldstatus $61,500
28. 1975-10-01
    soldstatus $28,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $594 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$734/yr (+$61/mo · 123.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$594
• − Insurance: −$5,918
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,153
• − Management: −$2,153
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $2,481
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$595
• After-tax cash flow: $4,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal River

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #11564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal River, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,163
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,163
• Household income: $50,779
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 317.7637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+459.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $160,000 RACC
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $220,000 RACC
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $165,000 RACC
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records
• 1975-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $594 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.