407 Rosebank Rnch · Magnolia, TX 77354

$237,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,319 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 7,479 sqft lot Est $237k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming one story home situated on a large premium lot with no neighbors behind or on one side! The home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, high ceilings & an oversized backyard. LVP flooring extends through the common areas. The kitchen boasts white shaker-style cabinetry, gas cooking & an adjoining dining area. Primary suite with a walk-in closet. Neutral finishes throughout. Large, private backyard - the home backs to green space with a paved walking trail. Biking/walking distance to the community splash pad & playground. Zoned to Magnolia ISD. Don't miss this one!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Gazebo
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• NEWLY ADDED PATIO
• GAZEBO
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,105 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.44%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,420
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Rosebank Rnch	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,319 (0%)	1mo	$237,000	$180	99
540 Flower Reed Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,330 (+1%)	2mo	$255,990	$192	66
723 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,311 (-1%)	2mo	$239,990	$183	60
434 Southern Magnolia Way	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,273 (-4%)	1mo	$240,990	$189	58
710 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,273 (-4%)	1mo	$237,990	$187	58
716 Autumn Cherry Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (+11%)	2mo	$255,000	$173	53
719 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (+7%)	1mo	$245,990	$175	50
715 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (+8%)	1mo	$240,990	$170	49
474 Southern Magnolia Way	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (+8%)	4mo	$248,990	$176	46
486 Southern Magnolia Way	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (+8%)	3mo	$243,990	$172	45
555 Flower Reed Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (+14%)	0mo	$242,990	$161	43
306 Bandit Cove Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (+12%)	4mo	$268,990	$181	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $100,618
• Equity at exit: $213,508

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $305,554
• Equity at exit: $460,439

Cash invested: $66,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,014 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,243
• Tax from tax record: −$510 /mo · $6,123/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,479

Max offer price $172,105

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-233	-5% $-300	+0% $-367	+5% $-434	+10% $-502
Rent	-10% $-526	-5% $-447	+0% $-367	+5% $-288	+10% $-208
Rate	-1.0pp $-248	-0.5pp $-307	base $-367	+0.5pp $-429	+1.0pp $-491

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,250
• Closing costs: $7,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	24d	1	0.21mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	7d	1	0.23mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	0.47mi
297 Country Crossing Cir Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1806	$1,731	$0.96	0d	1	0.59mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	26d	1	0.82mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	45d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   historical
3. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-02
   listed $237,000 Active
6. 2025-09-16
   historical
7. 2025-08-25
   price $237,000
8. 2025-07-24
   listed $250,000 Active
9. 2024-02-13
   soldstatus Sold 591-char remark

   Show marketing remark (591 chars)

   Charming one story home situated on a large premium lot with no neighbors behind or on one side! The home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, high ceilings & an oversized backyard. LVP flooring extends through the common areas. The kitchen boasts white shaker-style cabinetry, gas cooking & an adjoining dining area. Primary suite with a walk-in closet. Neutral finishes throughout. Large, private backyard - the home backs to green space with a paved walking trail. Biking/walking distance to the community splash pad & playground. Zoned to Magnolia ISD. Don't miss this one!

10. 2024-02-13
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Charming one story home situated on a large premium lot with no neighbors behind or on one side! The home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, high ceilings & an oversized backyard. LVP flooring extends through the common areas. The kitchen boasts white shaker-style cabinetry, gas cooking & an adjoining dining area. Primary suite with a walk-in closet. Neutral finishes throughout. Large, private backyard - the home backs to green space with a paved walking trail. Biking/walking distance to the community splash pad & playground. Zoned to Magnolia ISD. Don't miss this one!

11. 2024-01-24
    status Pending 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Charming one story home situated on a large premium lot with no neighbors behind or on one side! The home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, high ceilings & an oversized backyard. LVP flooring extends through the common areas. The kitchen boasts white shaker-style cabinetry, gas cooking & an adjoining dining area. Primary suite with a walk-in closet. Neutral finishes throughout. Large, private backyard - the home backs to green space with a paved walking trail. Biking/walking distance to the community splash pad & playground. Zoned to Magnolia ISD. Don't miss this one!

12. 2024-01-12
    status Option Pending 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Charming one story home situated on a large premium lot with no neighbors behind or on one side! The home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, high ceilings & an oversized backyard. LVP flooring extends through the common areas. The kitchen boasts white shaker-style cabinetry, gas cooking & an adjoining dining area. Primary suite with a walk-in closet. Neutral finishes throughout. Large, private backyard - the home backs to green space with a paved walking trail. Biking/walking distance to the community splash pad & playground. Zoned to Magnolia ISD. Don't miss this one!

13. 2024-01-09
    listed $250,000 Active 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Charming one story home situated on a large premium lot with no neighbors behind or on one side! The home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, high ceilings & an oversized backyard. LVP flooring extends through the common areas. The kitchen boasts white shaker-style cabinetry, gas cooking & an adjoining dining area. Primary suite with a walk-in closet. Neutral finishes throughout. Large, private backyard - the home backs to green space with a paved walking trail. Biking/walking distance to the community splash pad & playground. Zoned to Magnolia ISD. Don't miss this one!

14. 2024-01-09
    historical

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    Charming one story home situated on a large premium lot with no neighbors behind or on one side! The home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, high ceilings & an oversized backyard. LVP flooring extends through the common areas. The kitchen boasts white shaker-style cabinetry, gas cooking & an adjoining dining area. Primary suite with a walk-in closet. Neutral finishes throughout. Large, private backyard - the home backs to green space with a paved walking trail. Biking/walking distance to the community splash pad & playground. Zoned to Magnolia ISD. Don't miss this one!

15. 2024-01-08
    price $250,000
16. 2023-10-19
    listed $255,000 Active
17. 2022-02-23
    soldstatus Sold
18. 2022-01-10
    status Pending
19. 2021-12-21
    price $240,000
20. 2021-12-06
    price $243,000
21. 2021-11-29
    price $245,990
22. 2021-09-28
    price $235,000
23. 2021-09-23
    listed $240,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,123 · $510/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,123 · $510/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,276
• − Property taxes: −$6,123
• − Insurance: −$1,982
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,933
• − Management: −$1,933
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$6,895
• Taxable loss: −$8,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,029
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, one-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The interior is in good condition with neutral finishes and hardwood floors. The exterior is well-maintained with a landscaped yard. The home is located in a desirable community with playgrounds and a splash pad nearby.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Resale paint interior — refreshes the home's look
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale paint interior — refreshes the home's look ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $237,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $237,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-02-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-01-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-01-09 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-08 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-19 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2022-02-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-01-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-12-21 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2021-12-06 Price Changed $243,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-29 Price Changed $245,990 HARMLS
• 2021-09-28 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2021-09-23 Listed $240,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,123 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.