6978 Paul Howard Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32222

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1986 10,454 sqft lot Est $246k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention investors and cash buyers! Great opportunity to complete and customize this property to your vision. The project is partially completed and offers excellent potential for investment. Excellent opportunity for someone looking to add value and finish the work already started. Conveniently located in Jacksonville with easy access to shopping, dining, and major roads. Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1986
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking type
• Utilities: Sewer: unknown; Other utilities listed
• Home design: Single family home; One story; Residential use
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: City street frontage; Asphalt road surface; Lot of about 0.24 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating system listed; No cooling system listed
• Interior features: No fireplaces; No built-in appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $175k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.17%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,856
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6993 Huntington Woods Cir W	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,226 (-2%)	8mo	$220,000	$179	80
7218 Camfield St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,198 (-4%)	6mo	$199,900	$167	72
7146 Catina Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,211 (-3%)	4mo	$267,500	$221	62
7162 Catina Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-4%)	4mo	$210,000	$176	59
9205 Brandi Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+1%)	14mo	$250,000	$197	58
9268 Hipps Rd	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,235 (-1%)	2mo	$275,000	$223	55
7000 Huntington Woods Cir E	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,119 (-10%)	20mo	$270,000	$241	54
7227 Bunion Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,112 (-11%)	14mo	$240,000	$216	53
7149 Loves Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+14%)	2mo	$265,000	$187	48
7146 Loves Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+10%)	14mo	$264,000	$193	45
7133 Loves Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+14%)	11mo	$300,000	$211	43
9115 Hipps Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,415 (+13%)	16mo	$230,000	$163	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-7,842
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $17,557
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32222

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,831 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,466/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,409

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8903 Hipps Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	935	$1,400	$1.50	23d	1	0.21mi
7529 Falcon Trace Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,850	$1.25	2d	1	1.00mi
7573 Falcon Trace Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,750	$1.26	13d	1	1.12mi
8326 Walden Rd E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,515	$1.49	2d	1	1.15mi
8368 Geoffrey Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1104	$1,730	$1.57	23d	1	1.19mi
7650 Dover Cliff Dr S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,880	$1.51	4d	1	1.19mi
7540 Collins Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,785	$1.21	23d	1	1.23mi
8144 Colonnade Ct W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1307	$1,745	$1.34	23d	1	1.25mi
7539 Walden Rd E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	956	$1,850	$1.94	7d	1	1.30mi
8137 Leafcrest Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$1,855	$1.30	7d	1	1.36mi
8522 Sugartree Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,895	$1.32	3d	1	1.38mi
8131 Cumberland Gap Trl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,624	$1.25	14d	1	1.40mi
8077 Cumberland Gap Trl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1307	$1,750	$1.34	23d	1	1.41mi
8472 Fury Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1326	$1,780	$1.34	23d	1	1.44mi
7952 118th St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1407	$1,895	$1.35	10d	1	1.48mi
7952 118th St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1407	$1,895	$1.35	7d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $185,000 Active
16. 2020-08-13
    soldstatus $55,000
17. 2018-12-24
    status Pending
18. 2018-12-24
    historical
19. 2018-12-22
    price $39,900
20. 2018-12-13
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,466 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,466 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,466
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,758
• − Management: −$1,758
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,220
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$293
• After-tax cash flow: $3,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,258
• Household income: $85,649
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 666.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.56%
• Current HPI: 257.6466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+270.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $185,000 realMLS
• 2020-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-24 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-12-24 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2018-12-22 Price Changed $39,900 realMLS
• 2018-12-13 Listed $49,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,466 · +20.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.