306 Clifton Ave · Arnold, MD 21012

$399,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1953 10,800 sqft lot $317/sqft · 18% below area Est $488k · 18% under ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * PRICE REDUCED 25K * * * Nestled in the desirable Broadneck area of Arnold, Maryland, this charming Cape Cod-style home offers classic character with a comfortable, functional layout. Step inside to find a welcoming main level featuring two spacious bedrooms and a full bath, perfect for convenient one-level living. The bright and inviting living spaces flow easily, creating a warm atmosphere ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll discover a private retreat with a third bedroom and an additional full bath—perfect for a primary suite, guest space, or home office setup. Outside, the property features a generous driveway with room for up to four vehic

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water
• Home design: Detached property; Year built reported by assessor
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other type foundation
• Exterior features: Detached structure; Other above- and below-grade structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level; One bedroom on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Window air conditioning units (electric)
• Interior features: No basement; Finished living area reported by assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $374k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Arnold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#93 in MD, #3,518 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Monarch Global Academy Pcs Laurel Campus (math 13% / reading 28%, grade F, #341 of 860 statewide, top 40%, 830 students, 53% FRL); Severn River Middle (math 26% / reading 55%, grade F, #25 of 225 statewide, top 11%, 734 students, 20% FRL); Broadneck High (math 62% / reading 77%, grade B, #40 of 222 statewide, top 19%, 2,174 students, 19% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Anne Arundel County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,937 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $487,804
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -18.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
319 Alameda Pkwy	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,260 (0%)	2mo	$360,000	$286	90
339 Clifton Ave	0.28mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,260 (0%)	8mo	$485,000	$385	74
832 Clifton Ave	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+11%)	6mo	$535,000	$382	65
135 Brent Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-3%)	10mo	$460,000	$376	48
826 Clifton Ave	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+11%)	23mo	$480,000	$343	48
826 Windsor Rd	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-9%)	20mo	$495,000	$430	47
360 Buena Vista Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,408 (+12%)	19mo	$490,000	$348	38
303 Long Meadow Way	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,352 (+7%)	24mo	$426,000	$315	38
424 Alameda Pkwy	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,448 (+15%)	10mo	$1,050,000	$725	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-74,452
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-77,817
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21012

• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,809 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,248/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,997

Max offer price $373,688

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $-35	+0% $-148	+5% $-262	+10% $-375
Rent	-10% $-370	-5% $-259	+0% $-148	+5% $-37	+10% $74
Rate	-1.0pp $53	-0.5pp $-47	base $-148	+0.5pp $-252	+1.0pp $-357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1062 Brightleaf Dr Arnold, MD	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,600	$1.59	45d	1	0.27mi
269 Ternwing Dr Arnold, MD	3.0	1.0	1156	$2,500	$2.16	45d	1	0.31mi
527 Greenblades Ct Arnold, MD	3.0	2.0	1246	$2,375	$1.91	19d	1	0.47mi
394 Kiltie Ct Arnold, MD	3.0	2.0	1580	$3,150	$1.99	45d	1	0.53mi
880 Doris Dr Arnold, MD	4.0	1.5	1175	$3,250	$2.77	0d	1	0.59mi
358 Kimwood Rd Arnold, MD	3.0	1.5	1248	$2,500	$2.00	45d	1	0.67mi
791 Match Point Dr Arnold, MD	3.0	1.5	1240	$2,700	$2.18	45d	1	0.99mi
1254 Masters Dr Arnold, MD	3.0	4.0	1832	$2,550	$1.39	25d	1	1.22mi
614 Oakland Hills Dr Arnold, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	896	$2,609	$2.91	0d	8	1.44mi
638 Oakland Hills Dr Unit A1 Arnold, MD	2.0	2.0	1054	$2,500	$2.37	6d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $399,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $425,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $425,000 Active 1089-char remark
16. 2026-05-04
    historical $425,000 1089-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,248 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,804 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,555/yr (+$130/mo · 124.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$1,248
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,697
• − Management: −$2,697
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$8,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,151
• After-tax cash flow: $371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anne Arundel County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400060
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $87,880
• Composite: 28.52/100
• National rank: #6733
• State rank: #10 of 24 in MD

Livability — Arnold

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #3518

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arnold, MD
• County: Anne Arundel County · 535,653 people
• City population: 22,570
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 22,570
• Household income: $139,432
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 271.0

Population outlook (Anne Arundel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 617,384 people
• By 2030: 642,094 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 686,621 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 723,031 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 809,346 · +31.1%
• By 2100: 837,658 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anne Arundel

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 55.7% · R 41.7% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.7pp toward D · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+14.5 2016: D+0.7 2012: R+0.9 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -469.24%
• Current HPI: 288.2944
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $399,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $425,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-04 Coming Soon $425,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,248 · -33.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.