2044 Jack County Dr · Travis Ranch, TX 75126

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 2009 5,489 sqft lot $150/sqft · 13% below area Est $287k · 13% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice home in Travis Ranch and Forney ISD. Home offers four bedrooms and two bathrooms. Also includes a refrigerator. Community features include greenbelts, playgrounds, and a pool. Conveniently located near HWY 80 and Lake Ray Hubbard. The primary suite features a spacious bedroom, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. HVAC replaced 2022.

Key facts

• Playgrounds
• Greenbelts
• Refrigerator

Tags

• REFRIGERATOR
• GREENBELTS
• PLAYGROUNDS
• POOL
• HWY 80
• LAKE RAY HUBBARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#983 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,906 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,221
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -12.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2001 Eagle Lake Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,698 (+2%)	3mo	$224,900	$132	89
2003 Uvalde Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,630 (-2%)	2mo	$245,000	$150	88
5520 Yarborough Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-4%)	0mo	$250,000	$157	72
1013 Rumley Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+11%)	0mo	$225,000	$122	72
4407 Stockdale Ln	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,703 (+2%)	1mo	$285,000	$167	71
1025 Bend Ct	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+7%)	2mo	$275,000	$154	67
1123 Johnson City Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+2%)	3mo	$249,900	$147	64
1685 Timpson Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+1%)	2mo	$270,000	$160	63
2210 Torch Lake Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,837 (+10%)	3mo	$288,600	$157	63
2203 Vance Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-7%)	1mo	$254,900	$163	61
2804 Lenham Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	2mo	$243,000	$169	61
2323 Mount Olive Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,788 (+7%)	1mo	$269,900	$151	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-62,131
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-90,521
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,175 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$559 /mo · $6,707/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,541

Max offer price $198,906

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2117 Silsbee Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,995	$1.20	17d	1	0.16mi
2047 Enchanted Rock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,000	$1.22	4d	1	0.28mi
2302 Tombstone Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1905	$2,100	$1.10	44d	1	0.36mi
1004 Trickham Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,350	$1.29	21d	1	0.42mi
2415 Anton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1891	$2,200	$1.16	17d	1	0.57mi
1031 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,950	$1.21	4d	1	0.58mi
1037 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	24d	1	0.60mi
1037 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	20d	1	0.60mi
2014 Zavala Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,100	$1.30	4d	1	0.60mi
2010 Diamondback Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,099	$1.20	24d	1	0.69mi
2907 Doggett Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2139	$2,950	$1.38	1d	1	0.73mi
2143 Erika Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,200	$1.31	17d	1	0.74mi
1804 Arcola Ct Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1619	$1,895	$1.17	13d	1	0.77mi
1804 Arcola Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1619	$1,895	$1.17	15d	1	0.77mi
5529 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	13d	1	0.77mi
5529 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	6d	1	0.77mi
1427 Ganado Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,995	$1.31	7d	1	0.79mi
1427 Ganado Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1512	$2,095	$1.39	22d	1	0.79mi
5516 Berea St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,875	$1.48	44d	1	0.79mi
5537 Berea St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,785	$1.44	2d	1	0.82mi
2401 Lalun Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,089	$1.13	7d	1	0.86mi
5672 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,999	$1.03	7d	1	0.86mi
5661 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,995	$1.25	4d	1	0.86mi
2258 Templin Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1988	$2,300	$1.16	19d	1	0.87mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,299	$1.24	2d	1	0.88mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,399	$1.29	24d	1	0.88mi
1329 Rosenberg Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,100	$1.05	44d	1	0.89mi
3127 Maverick Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2129	$2,750	$1.29	22d	1	0.89mi
5681 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$2,070	$1.06	21d	1	0.89mi
5693 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1685	$1,839	$1.09	7d	1	0.91mi
2157 Clarion Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,975	$1.23	44d	1	1.10mi
3935 Sidney Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,675	$1.34	44d	1	1.10mi
2412 Bold Venture Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,895	$1.31	44d	1	1.10mi
4307 Johnstown Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,745	$1.40	24d	1	1.13mi
4101 Wintergreen Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,645	$1.33	6d	1	1.17mi
1606 Governors Blvd Heath, TX	3.0	2.5	1791	$3,000	$1.68	24d	1	1.26mi
1622 Governors Blvd Heath, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,000	$1.67	44d	1	1.26mi
5906 Nyquist Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,999	$1.33	44d	1	1.39mi
5452 Montrose Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,750	$1.48	4d	1	1.40mi
6001 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,679	$1.17	22d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Active 356-char remark

   Show marketing remark (356 chars)

   Very nice home in Travis Ranch and Forney ISD. Home offers four bedrooms and two bathrooms. Also includes a refrigerator. Community features include greenbelts, playgrounds, and a pool. Conveniently located near HWY 80 and Lake Ray Hubbard. The primary suite features a spacious bedroom, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. HVAC replaced 2022.

2. 2026-02-19
   status Pending 356-char remark

   Show marketing remark (356 chars)

   Very nice home in Travis Ranch and Forney ISD. Home offers four bedrooms and two bathrooms. Also includes a refrigerator. Community features include greenbelts, playgrounds, and a pool. Conveniently located near HWY 80 and Lake Ray Hubbard. The primary suite features a spacious bedroom, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. HVAC replaced 2022.

3. 2025-12-15
   listed $250,000 Active 356-char remark

   Show marketing remark (356 chars)

   Very nice home in Travis Ranch and Forney ISD. Home offers four bedrooms and two bathrooms. Also includes a refrigerator. Community features include greenbelts, playgrounds, and a pool. Conveniently located near HWY 80 and Lake Ray Hubbard. The primary suite features a spacious bedroom, a separate tub and shower, and a walk-in closet. HVAC replaced 2022.

4. 2025-10-07
   historical
5. 2025-09-10
   price $275,000
6. 2025-07-24
   price $299,900
7. 2025-07-24
   status Active
8. 2024-08-06
   listed $315,000 Active
9. 2022-08-06
   price $2,390
10. 2022-03-22
    soldstatus
11. 2022-03-21
    soldstatus Closed
12. 2022-03-07
    status Pending
13. 2022-03-04
    historical Active Option Contract
14. 2022-03-01
    listed $287,000 Active
15. 2009-07-24
    soldstatus
16. 2009-06-24
    historical
17. 2009-05-30
    listed $143,990
18. 2007-04-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,707 · $559/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,707 · $559/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,707
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,088
• − Management: −$2,088
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,850
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,620/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Travis Ranch

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #983
• US rank: #17440

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Travis Ranch, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+73.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $299,900 NTREIS
• 2025-07-24 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-08-06 Listed $315,000 NTREIS
• 2022-08-06 Price Changed $2,390 RENT.
• 2022-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-21 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-03-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-03-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-03-01 Listed $287,000 NTREIS
• 2009-07-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2009-06-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2009-05-30 Listed $143,990 NTREIS
• 2007-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,707 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.