9631 Coyote Creek Dr · Houston, TX 77095

$219,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2004 4,207 sqft lot $142/sqft · 6% below area Est $233k · 6% under $108/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to luxury living in the highly sought-after Stone Gate golf course community! This beautifully updated corner-lot townhouse/condo offers the privacy of a stand-alone home with its own driveway and detached 2-car garage. Featuring 2 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 baths, this elegant residence showcases fresh modern updates including new luxury vinyl flooring throughout, recent remodeling, and professional touch-ups after tenant move-out. A new roof installed in 2023 adds exceptional value and peace of mind. The open-concept living space is filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. All bedrooms are conveniently located up

Key facts

• Corner-lot townhouse
• New roof installed
• Prime location

Tags

• CORNER-LOT TOWNHOUSE
• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• NEW ROOF INSTALLED
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Stone Gate Owners Association; Association fee $1,290 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2004; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the second level (approx. 12 x 12); Bedroom on the second level (approx. 11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Seller provided disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-301 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aragon Middle (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,534 students, 47% FRL); Langham Creek H S (math 56% / reading 65%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 2,781 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,842 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.89%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,306
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -6.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16743 Libson Falls Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,540 (0%)	1mo	$219,990	$143	88
16707 Pine Castle Dr	0.17mi	2/2.5	1,540 (0%)	10mo	$225,000	$146	84
17023 Sperry Landing Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,523 (-1%)	2mo	$250,000	$164	79
16726 Libson Falls Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,487 (-3%)	9mo	$229,900	$155	74
16750 Libson Falls Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	7mo	$195,000	$135	72
16414 Mesa Point Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (+3%)	5mo	$300,000	$189	72
16527 Aberdeen Green Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,495 (-3%)	3mo	$279,900	$187	66
16542 Whitaker Creek Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-3%)	4mo	$270,000	$180	60
16607 Berkshire Forest Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,698 (+10%)	3mo	$269,999	$159	51
9210 Taftsberry Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,693 (+10%)	11mo	$290,000	$171	50
16534 Whitaker Creek Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,737 (+13%)	3mo	$277,900	$160	44
9202 Aberdeen Lake Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,645 (+7%)	8mo	$253,000	$154	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.94% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-36,566
• Equity at exit: $53,438

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-43,964
• Equity at exit: $56,604

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77095

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$357 /mo · $4,285/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,158

Max offer price $165,842

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-177	-5% $-239	+0% $-301	+5% $-363	+10% $-425
Rent	-10% $-441	-5% $-371	+0% $-301	+5% $-231	+10% $-161
Rate	-1.0pp $-191	-0.5pp $-245	base $-301	+0.5pp $-358	+1.0pp $-415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9714 Coyote Creek Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,725	$1.20	44d	1	0.04mi
16606 Aberdeen Green Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	24d	1	0.41mi
10118 Heron Meadows Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$2,400	$1.32	44d	1	0.52mi
10202 Peridot Cv Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,100	$1.21	13d	1	0.85mi
17307 Meria Coves Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$1,595	$0.92	24d	1	0.96mi
8300 Queenston Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	973	$2,424	$2.49	13d	1	0.96mi
10414 Falling River Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,045	$1.18	44d	1	1.04mi
18100 West Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	1228	$2,158	$1.76	2d	48	1.11mi
9777 Barker Cypress Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,939	$1.58	24d	1	1.14mi
17807 Lakecrest View Dr Unit 3112 Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,977	$1.46	3d	1	1.21mi
17807 Lakecrest View Dr Unit 17840 Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,020	$1.49	44d	1	1.21mi
17807 Lakecrest View Dr Unit 3174 Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,009	$1.48	10d	1	1.21mi
17813 Lakecrest View Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	3.0	1354	$1,969	$1.45	44d	1	1.25mi
8559 Spring Green Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1751	$1,749	$1.00	3d	1	1.30mi
15715 Tuckerton Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,682	$1.10	3d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $219,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $219,000 Pending 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $219,000 Pending 17 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $219,000 Pending 16 DOM
5. 2026-05-15
   listed $219,000 Active 932-char remark
6. 2025-05-15
   historical $1,750
7. 2025-03-13
   price $1,750
8. 2025-01-16
   price $1,835
9. 2024-11-02
   listed $1,850
10. 2023-12-06
    historical $1,700
11. 2023-11-12
    listed $1,700
12. 2016-10-24
    soldstatus
13. 2016-09-02
    soldstatus
14. 2016-09-01
    soldstatus Sold
15. 2016-08-30
    status Pending
16. 2016-08-21
    status Option Pending
17. 2016-08-13
    listed $142,000 Active
18. 2007-12-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,285 · $357/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,285 · $357/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$4,285
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$7,402
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,776
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,767
• Household income: $91,594
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1870.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Vietnamese 5% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Current HPI: 236.0249
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+54.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-15 Rental Removed $1,750 HARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $1,750 HARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $1,835 HARMLS
• 2024-11-02 Listed for Rent $1,850 HARMLS
• 2023-12-06 Rental Removed $1,700 HARMLS
• 2023-11-12 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2016-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-09-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-09-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-08-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-08-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-08-13 Listed $142,000 HARMLS
• 2007-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,285 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.