27 Arbor Club Dr #209 · Palm Valley, FL 32082

$199,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 944 sqft · Condo public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1992 $211/sqft · 14% below area Est $232k · 14% under $444/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Drastic price improvement! Outstanding end unit is owner occupied and has been meticulously maintained. As you step inside, the vaulted ceiling creates an immediate sense of space & openness complemented by tastefully updated paint colors. The gourmet kitchen is a chef's dream featuring 42'' maple cabinets, stylish stone backsplash, new stainless sink & stainless appliances plus a convenient breakfast bar. Ascend the carpeted spiral stairway to discover an open loft area adorned with a wall of closets, perfectly adaptable for use as a 2nd bedroom, guest room, office, gym or den. The primary bedroom is generously sized & offers a spacious walk-in closet. Step out onto the screened porch where you can enjoy the outdoors in comfort. Condo fees include water and sewer. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity! A must see for anyone ready to stop paying their landlord's mortgage and start building equity for themselves!

Key facts

• Vaulted ceiling
• Stone backsplash
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• VAULTED CEILING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• 42 MAPLE CABINETS
• STONE BACKSPLASH
• BREAKFAST BAR
• OPEN LOFT AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-18/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (0.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.3% in Palm Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#462 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 342 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,359
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -14.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-22,721
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $23,238
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32082

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 342
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,047 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $573/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$444
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,048

Max offer price $198,738

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $111	-5% $55	+0% $-1	+5% $-58	+10% $-114
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-82	+0% $-1	+5% $79	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $49	base $-1	+0.5pp $-53	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Arbor Club Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,095	$1.88	24d	1	0.08mi
11 Arbor Club Dr #214 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,200	$1.97	24d	1	0.09mi
100 Fairway Park Blvd Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,495	$1.99	15d	3	0.16mi
100 Fairway Park Blvd Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	577	$1,475	$2.55	24d	3	0.16mi
908 Shoreline Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$2,100	$2.03	4d	1	0.18mi
71 Ponte Vedra Colony Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$3,200	$3.37	24d	1	0.39mi
46 Ponte Vedra Colony Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	22d	1	0.39mi
130 Veracruz Dr #722 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	991	$2,000	$2.02	24d	1	0.87mi
230 Colima Ct Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	990	$2,148	$2.17	8d	1	0.87mi
160 Veracruz Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,188	$2.05	24d	1	0.96mi
100 Ironwood Dr #133 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1117	$2,295	$2.05	24d	1	1.18mi
743 Spinnakers Reach Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$4,500	$6.43	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $444 · $5,328/yr
• Likely covers: watersewergym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    price $199,000 948-char remark

    Show marketing remark (948 chars)

    Drastic price improvement! Outstanding end unit is owner occupied and has been meticulously maintained. As you step inside, the vaulted ceiling creates an immediate sense of space & openness complemented by tastefully updated paint colors. The gourmet kitchen is a chef's dream featuring 42'' maple cabinets, stylish stone backsplash, new stainless sink & stainless appliances plus a convenient breakfast bar. Ascend the carpeted spiral stairway to discover an open loft area adorned with a wall of closets, perfectly adaptable for use as a 2nd bedroom, guest room, office, gym or den. The primary bedroom is generously sized & offers a spacious walk-in closet. Step out onto the screened porch where you can enjoy the outdoors in comfort. Condo fees include water and sewer. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity! A must see for anyone ready to stop paying their landlord's mortgage and start building equity for themselves!

16. 2026-03-16
    price $206,500 948-char remark

    Show marketing remark (948 chars)

    Drastic price improvement! Outstanding end unit is owner occupied and has been meticulously maintained. As you step inside, the vaulted ceiling creates an immediate sense of space & openness complemented by tastefully updated paint colors. The gourmet kitchen is a chef's dream featuring 42'' maple cabinets, stylish stone backsplash, new stainless sink & stainless appliances plus a convenient breakfast bar. Ascend the carpeted spiral stairway to discover an open loft area adorned with a wall of closets, perfectly adaptable for use as a 2nd bedroom, guest room, office, gym or den. The primary bedroom is generously sized & offers a spacious walk-in closet. Step out onto the screened porch where you can enjoy the outdoors in comfort. Condo fees include water and sewer. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity! A must see for anyone ready to stop paying their landlord's mortgage and start building equity for themselves!

17. 2026-01-22
    price $207,500 948-char remark

    Show marketing remark (948 chars)

    Drastic price improvement! Outstanding end unit is owner occupied and has been meticulously maintained. As you step inside, the vaulted ceiling creates an immediate sense of space & openness complemented by tastefully updated paint colors. The gourmet kitchen is a chef's dream featuring 42'' maple cabinets, stylish stone backsplash, new stainless sink & stainless appliances plus a convenient breakfast bar. Ascend the carpeted spiral stairway to discover an open loft area adorned with a wall of closets, perfectly adaptable for use as a 2nd bedroom, guest room, office, gym or den. The primary bedroom is generously sized & offers a spacious walk-in closet. Step out onto the screened porch where you can enjoy the outdoors in comfort. Condo fees include water and sewer. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity! A must see for anyone ready to stop paying their landlord's mortgage and start building equity for themselves!

18. 2026-01-22
    listed $208,500 Active 948-char remark

    Show marketing remark (948 chars)

    Drastic price improvement! Outstanding end unit is owner occupied and has been meticulously maintained. As you step inside, the vaulted ceiling creates an immediate sense of space & openness complemented by tastefully updated paint colors. The gourmet kitchen is a chef's dream featuring 42'' maple cabinets, stylish stone backsplash, new stainless sink & stainless appliances plus a convenient breakfast bar. Ascend the carpeted spiral stairway to discover an open loft area adorned with a wall of closets, perfectly adaptable for use as a 2nd bedroom, guest room, office, gym or den. The primary bedroom is generously sized & offers a spacious walk-in closet. Step out onto the screened porch where you can enjoy the outdoors in comfort. Condo fees include water and sewer. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity! A must see for anyone ready to stop paying their landlord's mortgage and start building equity for themselves!

19. 2025-12-31
    historical 878-char remark

    Show marketing remark (878 chars)

    Outstanding end unit is owner occupied and has been meticulously maintained. As you step inside, the vaulted ceiling creates an immediate sense of space & openness complemented by tastefully updated paint colors. The gourmet kitchen is a chef's dream featuring 42'' maple cabinets, stylish stone backsplash, new stainless sink & stainless appliances plus a convenient breakfast bar. Ascend the carpeted spiral stairway to discover an open loft area adorned with a wall of closets, perfectly adaptable for use as a 2nd bedroom, guest room, office, gym or den. The primary bedroom is generously sized & offers a spacious walk-in closet. Step out onto the screened porch where you can enjoy the outdoors in comfort. Condo fees include water and sewer. Owners will leave the furniture from both bedrooms and dining room. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

20. 2025-07-18
    listed $215,000 Active 878-char remark

    Show marketing remark (878 chars)

    Outstanding end unit is owner occupied and has been meticulously maintained. As you step inside, the vaulted ceiling creates an immediate sense of space & openness complemented by tastefully updated paint colors. The gourmet kitchen is a chef's dream featuring 42'' maple cabinets, stylish stone backsplash, new stainless sink & stainless appliances plus a convenient breakfast bar. Ascend the carpeted spiral stairway to discover an open loft area adorned with a wall of closets, perfectly adaptable for use as a 2nd bedroom, guest room, office, gym or den. The primary bedroom is generously sized & offers a spacious walk-in closet. Step out onto the screened porch where you can enjoy the outdoors in comfort. Condo fees include water and sewer. Owners will leave the furniture from both bedrooms and dining room. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

21. 2025-03-31
    historical
22. 2025-02-03
    price $226,000
23. 2024-11-20
    price $227,400
24. 2024-09-18
    price $229,900
25. 2024-08-24
    price $235,000
26. 2024-08-14
    listed $238,000 Active
27. 2024-04-03
    historical
28. 2024-03-11
    price $247,000
29. 2024-01-04
    listed $249,900 Active
30. 2023-09-22
    historical
31. 2023-09-19
    price $245,000
32. 2023-09-06
    listed $249,900 Active
33. 2023-07-22
    historical
34. 2023-07-05
    listed $253,000 Active
35. 2023-06-19
    historical
36. 2023-05-31
    price $259,900
37. 2023-05-30
    price $263,000
38. 2023-05-10
    listed $265,000 Active
39. 2023-05-01
    historical
40. 2023-03-31
    price $263,800
41. 2023-03-14
    price $264,000
42. 2023-02-28
    price $265,000
43. 2023-02-23
    listed $268,000 Active
44. 2022-12-20
    historical
45. 2022-12-09
    listed $255,900 Active
46. 2021-05-27
    soldstatus $175,000
47. 2021-05-24
    soldstatus $175,000 Sold
48. 2021-05-20
    status Pending
49. 2021-04-29
    historical Active - Contingent
50. 2021-04-22
    listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $573 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,078/yr (+$90/mo · 188.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$573
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,965
• − Management: −$1,965
• − HOA: −$5,328
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$769
• After-tax cash flow: $751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Valley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #462
• US rank: #8349

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Valley, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,289
• Household income: $124,558
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 672.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -435.26%
• Current HPI: 306.134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.39%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+29.7% since first listed

52 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $199,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $206,500 realMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $207,500 realMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $208,500 realMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-07-18 Listed $215,000 realMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $226,000 realMLS
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $227,400 realMLS
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $229,900 realMLS
• 2024-08-24 Price Changed $235,000 realMLS
• 2024-08-14 Listed $238,000 realMLS
• 2024-04-03 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-03-11 Price Changed $247,000 realMLS
• 2024-01-04 Listed $249,900 realMLS
• 2023-09-22 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-09-19 Price Changed $245,000 realMLS
• 2023-09-06 Listed $249,900 realMLS
• 2023-07-22 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-07-05 Listed $253,000 realMLS
• 2023-06-19 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-05-31 Price Changed $259,900 realMLS
• 2023-05-30 Price Changed $263,000 realMLS
• 2023-05-10 Listed $265,000 realMLS
• 2023-05-01 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-03-31 Price Changed $263,800 realMLS
• 2023-03-14 Price Changed $264,000 realMLS
• 2023-02-28 Price Changed $265,000 realMLS
• 2023-02-23 Listed $268,000 realMLS
• 2022-12-20 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2022-12-09 Listed $255,900 realMLS
• 2021-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-24 Sold (MLS) $175,000 realMLS
• 2021-05-20 Pending — realMLS
• 2021-04-29 Contingent — realMLS
• 2021-04-22 Listed $179,900 realMLS
• 2020-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-21 Sold (MLS) $154,000 realMLS
• 2020-05-11 Pending — realMLS
• 2020-04-16 Contingent — realMLS
• 2020-04-14 Listed $160,000 realMLS
• 2017-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $132,900 Public Records
• 2017-08-14 Sold (MLS) $132,900 realMLS
• 2017-08-04 Pending — realMLS
• 2017-07-14 Contingent — realMLS
• 2017-07-13 Price Changed $133,900 realMLS
• 2017-06-28 Listed $134,900 realMLS
• 2014-11-03 Sold (MLS) $92,500 realMLS
• 2014-08-07 Listed $92,500 realMLS
• 2010-12-30 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2009-06-17 Listed $70,000 realMLS
• 2005-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $153,400 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $573 · +25.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.