46 Cordona Dr · Poinciana, FL 34758

$260,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,067 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2004 0.56 ac lot Est $366k · 29% under $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

TLC IS NEEDED

Key facts

• 0.56 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-194/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 604 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $260k implies a 593% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,404 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $365,859
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46 Cordona Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,067 (0%)	0mo	$240,000	$116	100
1 Carmona Way	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,969 (-5%)	5mo	$299,000	$152	74
4637 Huron Bay Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,078 (+0%)	2mo	$321,000	$154	68
60 Cordona Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,211 (+7%)	18mo	$425,000	$192	65
4668 Huron Bay Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,078 (+0%)	6mo	$355,000	$171	61
902 Mendoza Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,229 (+8%)	16mo	$405,000	$182	60
911 Mendoza Ln	0.27mi	4/3.0	1,812 (-12%)	7mo	$405,000	$224	57
713 Maderia Ct	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,810 (-12%)	2mo	$319,900	$177	44
803 Mendoza Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,762 (-15%)	22mo	$340,000	$193	42
757 Americana Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,835 (-11%)	13mo	$291,500	$159	41
131 Bianca Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,770 (-14%)	20mo	$346,000	$195	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-47,802
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-61,180
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34758

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 604
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,753/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,175

Max offer price $257,143

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $57	+0% $-16	+5% $-90	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-186	-5% $-101	+0% $-16	+5% $69	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $50	base $-16	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
61 Cordona Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1507	$1,895	$1.26	24d	1	0.10mi
San Remo Ct Poinciana, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1181	$1,899	$1.61	2d	15	0.21mi
712 E Flag Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$1,950	$1.19	24d	1	0.61mi
820 E Flag Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$1,745	$0.96	24d	1	0.72mi
828 E Flag Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2141	$1,950	$0.91	24d	1	0.76mi
828 E Flag Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2051	$1,950	$0.95	22d	1	0.76mi
4693 Huron Bay Cir Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1868	$1,851	$0.99	14d	1	0.83mi
405 Francisco Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,775	$1.00	24d	1	0.84mi
636 Regency Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,930	$1.20	5d	1	0.86mi
603 Pinehurst Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1876	$2,150	$1.15	17d	1	0.99mi
3510 Yacht Club Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,795	$1.20	24d	1	1.04mi
518 Carlsbad Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,820	$1.17	24d	1	1.06mi
3292 Wilderness Trl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1577	$2,005	$1.27	24d	1	1.08mi
507 Hunter Cir Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,625	$1.02	5d	1	1.10mi
623 Polynesian Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,500	$1.47	3d	1	1.20mi
404 Hunter Cir Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,695	$1.07	22d	1	1.21mi
4044 Marina Isle Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,750	$1.17	22d	1	1.24mi
3504 Portview Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,100	$1.41	24d	1	1.31mi
4030 Marina Isle Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,700	$1.14	24d	1	1.33mi
4029 Marina Isle Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,410	$1.62	24d	1	1.35mi
421 Peppermill Cir Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1896	$2,125	$1.12	24d	1	1.38mi
413 Marlberry Leaf Ave Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	2236	$2,100	$0.94	22d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $260,000 Active
3. 2004-03-30
   soldstatus $37,500
4. 2003-08-11
   soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,753 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,158 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$405/yr (+$34/mo · 23.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$1,753
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,068
• − Management: −$2,068
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$4,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,768
• Household income: $66,339
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1302.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Black 22% Two or more races 16% White 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 36% Cuban 3% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.53%
• Current HPI: 295.8928
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+642.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 2003-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,753 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.