9409 Fairland Dr · Houston, TX 77051

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1955 5,501 sqft lot Est $172k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.3/15.0

Listing remarks

This newly renovated home features 4 bedrooms and 2 updated bathrooms. The open-concept kitchen and living room create a welcoming space ideal for entertaining or family gatherings. Additional highlights include a dedicated laundry room, a brand-new roof, upgraded AC unit, new piping, and modern fixtures throughout. Move-in ready and thoughtfully updated—this home is a must-see!

Key facts

• Renovated
• Generously sized lot
• Shopping

Tags

• RENOVATED
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• SHOPPING
• DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms on the first floor)
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Shingle and wood roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1955
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 10); Three additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 12 x 10; 10 x 10; 9 x 10)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer hookup and gas dryer hookup; Dishwasher, Disposal, Gas Oven, Gas Range, Microwave; Laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Reynolds El (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #4,301 of 4,322 statewide, top 100%, 334 students, 98% FRL); Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,418 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,260
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9321 Cathedral Dr	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,204 (+1%)	4mo	$159,000	$132	88
10006 Chesterfield Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,170 (-2%)	3mo	$125,000	$107	78
10205 Sierra Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,151 (-3%)	3mo	$120,000	$104	71
3034 Corksie St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,225 (+3%)	0mo	$219,900	$180	65
10209 Cathedral Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,244 (+5%)	3mo	$180,000	$145	65
9506 Sierra Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,316 (+11%)	3mo	$160,000	$122	65
10014 Sierra Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,243 (+5%)	2mo	$185,000	$149	65
3138 Sunbeam St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,091 (-8%)	7mo	$109,900	$101	62
3334 Dulcrest St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,122 (-6%)	3mo	$90,000	$80	55
3018 Elpyco St	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (+2%)	2mo	$187,000	$154	52
10118 Cathedral Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,293 (+9%)	7mo	$200,000	$155	49
4210 Larkspur St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+8%)	5mo	$199,000	$155	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $100,420
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $310,556
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,514 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,888/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,737

Max offer price $168,803

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-63	-5% $-119	+0% $-176	+5% $-233	+10% $-289
Rent	-10% $-296	-5% $-236	+0% $-176	+5% $-116	+10% $-56
Rate	-1.0pp $-75	-0.5pp $-125	base $-176	+0.5pp $-228	+1.0pp $-281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9414 Heno St Unit 13 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	26d	1	0.36mi
4112 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	711	$700	$0.98	12d	1	0.44mi
4205 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	26d	1	0.49mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,228	$1.01	1d	3	0.51mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	4d	2	0.61mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	19d	1	0.61mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	1d	2	0.63mi
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	45d	1	0.66mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	45d	1	0.74mi
4326 Larkspur St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	18d	1	0.76mi
3137 W Bellfort Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,802	$1.55	45d	1	0.99mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	22d	1	1.11mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	16d	1	1.14mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,253	$3.84	1d	1	1.16mi
4410 Bellfort Ave Unit 4404 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$999	$1.23	9d	1	1.24mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	7d	1	1.25mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	45d	1	1.32mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	14d	1	1.34mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	45d	1	1.40mi
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	45d	1	1.41mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $199,900 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $195,990 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,990 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,990 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-05-22
   price $195,990
7. 2026-05-20
   status Active
8. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
9. 2026-03-18
   price $180,990
10. 2026-02-16
    price $189,990
11. 2026-01-13
    listed $200,000 Active
12. 2026-01-01
    historical $1,800
13. 2025-12-13
    status Pending
14. 2025-12-04
    historical
15. 2025-10-30
    listed $1,800
16. 2025-10-16
    listed $207,000 Active
17. 2025-09-30
    historical
18. 2025-07-29
    price $219,990
19. 2025-05-21
    listed $239,990 Active
20. 2024-03-12
    soldstatus
21. 2024-03-07
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2024-02-16
    status Pending, Continue to Show
23. 2024-02-06
    listed $137,000 Active
24. 2008-02-18
    soldstatus
25. 1997-10-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,888 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$770/yr (+$64/mo · 26.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,888
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,454
• − Management: −$1,454
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,353
• After-tax cash flow: $-760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+43.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $195,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $180,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $207,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Listed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2024-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-03-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-02-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-02-06 Listed $137,000 HARMLS
• 2008-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,888 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.