828 W Church St · Newton, MS 39345

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · Other public records · 212 Days on market

Built 1945

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers excellent potential and classic charm. Featuring hardwood floors in multiple rooms, this property provides a solid foundation for updates and personalization. Situated on a spacious lot, the home also includes a large yard -ideal for outdoor living, gardening, or future improvements. With a little work, this property could make a great primary residence or investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Built 1945
• Listed 211 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#292 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton Municipal School District (town): math 19% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #91 of 130 in MS (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.44%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $27,477
• Equity at exit: $34,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $73,182
• Equity at exit: $50,438

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39345

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,062 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $381/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $649

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2025-10-27
   listed $85,000 Active 417-char remark

   Show marketing remark (417 chars)

   This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers excellent potential and classic charm. Featuring hardwood floors in multiple rooms, this property provides a solid foundation for updates and personalization. Situated on a spacious lot, the home also includes a large yard -ideal for outdoor living, gardening, or future improvements. With a little work, this property could make a great primary residence or investment opportunity.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $381 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$291/yr (+$24/mo · 76.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$381
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,019
• − Management: −$1,019
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$639
• After-tax cash flow: $3,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton Municipal School District
• NCES district ID: 2803180
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $34,333
• Composite: 17.23/100
• National rank: #9097
• State rank: #91 of 130 in MS

Livability — Newton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #22078

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newton, MS
• Population (ZIP): 5,571

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,329 people
• By 2030: 20,990 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 20,188 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 19,212 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 16,424 · -23.0%
• By 2100: 13,006 · -39.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -34.1pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+39.3 2012: R+31.4 2008: R+34.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Current HPI: 134.8882
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Listed $85,000 EMR

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2014): $381 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.