2919 Lincoln St NE · Minneapolis, MN 55418

$156,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1905 5,227 sqft lot $125/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1 1/2 story home, one large bedroom in main level and full bathroom, and 1 bedroom in upper level with 3/4 bathroom, close to public transportation

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1905

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.1% in Minneapolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#110 in MN, #2,525 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F.
• Minneapolis Public School District (urban): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #217 of 301 in MN (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $156k implies a 322% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $151,320 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.51%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,626
• List price: $156,000
• Delta: -54.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3154 Ulysses St NE	0.33mi	2/1.0	1,250 (+0%)	16mo	$305,000	$244	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-13,418
• Equity at exit: $23,260

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $14,756
• Equity at exit: $13,488

Cash invested: $43,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 34 Tenant-Leaning
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Minneapolis: 34 Tenant-Leaning · D+50

Tenant Opportunity to Purchase; renter's protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55418

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,245/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,460

Max offer price $156,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,000
• Closing costs: $4,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1028 28th Ave NE Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	925	$1,495	$1.62	43d	1	0.36mi
2827 Polk St NE Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	920	$1,895	$2.06	3d	1	0.37mi
962 29th Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	43d	1	0.39mi
2640 Fillmore St NE Unit 4 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,475	$1.64	43d	1	0.39mi
2639 NE Taylor St Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	875	$1,575	$1.80	17d	1	0.42mi
3127 Central Ave NE Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	43d	1	0.52mi
3318 Pierce St NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,450	$1.41	1d	1	0.52mi
2407 Buchanan St NE Unit 1 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	996	$1,800	$1.81	14d	1	0.59mi
2354 Benjamin St NE Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	43d	1	0.69mi
2205 1/2 Central Ave NE Apt 3 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	24d	1	0.87mi
2015 Central Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	902	$1,600	$1.77	43d	4	0.91mi
957 20th Ave NE Unit 1 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	700	$1,280	$1.83	43d	1	0.91mi
690 NE Lowry Ave Unit 1 Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1082	$2,345	$2.17	3d	1	0.92mi
920 22nd Ave NE Unit 1 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	7d	1	0.92mi
2600 Kenzie Ter Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	782	$1,588	$2.03	20d	4	0.92mi
1908 NE Jackson St Unit 1 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,325	$1.56	43d	1	1.04mi
1700 Johnson St NE Apt 5 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	43d	1	1.10mi
1700 Johnson St NE Unit 10-04 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	2d	1	1.10mi
1700 Johnson St NE Unit 00-09 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	43d	1	1.10mi
2522 5th St NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,799	$1.50	43d	1	1.21mi
3725 NE Stinson Blvd St Anthony, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	701	$1,925	$2.75	21d	3	1.25mi
3820 Jackson St NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	984	$1,824	$1.85	24d	1	1.26mi
2212 6th St NE Unit -2 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	725	$1,250	$1.72	17d	1	1.28mi
1000 Peters Pl Columbia Heights, MN	1.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	24d	1	1.28mi
2551 38th Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$2,639	$2.95	1d	22	1.31mi
347 24th Ave NE Unit 1 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	770	$1,295	$1.68	24d	1	1.32mi
233 26th Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1153	$1,545	$1.34	43d	1	1.38mi
909 Gould Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$2,095	$2.26	1d	24	1.41mi
900 14th Ave NE Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,610	$1.84	2d	13	1.42mi
1423 12th Ave NE Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,950	$1.95	43d	1	1.46mi
1431 Jefferson St NE Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $156,000 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $156,000 Contingent - Other 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $156,000 Contingent - Other 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $156,000 Contingent - Other 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $156,000 Contingent - Other 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $156,000 Contingent - Other 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $156,000 Contingent - Other 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $156,000 Contingent - Other 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $156,000 Contingent - Other 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $156,000 Contingent - Other 41 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $156,000 Contingent - Other 40 DOM
12. 2026-05-16
    historical Contingent - Other 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    1 1/2 story home, one large bedroom in main level and full bathroom, and 1 bedroom in upper level with 3/4 bathroom, close to public transportation

13. 2026-04-20
    listed $156,000 Active 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    1 1/2 story home, one large bedroom in main level and full bathroom, and 1 bedroom in upper level with 3/4 bathroom, close to public transportation

14. 1993-04-01
    soldstatus $37,000
15. 1993-02-11
    soldstatus $37,000
16. 1992-10-30
    listed $39,900
17. 1992-10-28
    historical
18. 1992-05-11
    listed $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,245 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,245 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,738
• − Property taxes: −$3,245
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$4,538
• Taxable loss: −$953
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$229
• After-tax cash flow: $1,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Minneapolis Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2721240
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,521
• Composite: 34.92/100
• National rank: #5067
• State rank: #217 of 301 in MN

Livability — Minneapolis

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #2525

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Minneapolis, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 417,555
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 31,505
• Household income: $99,397
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1179.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.21%
• Current HPI: 277.9846
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+291.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $156,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 1993-02-11 Sold (MLS) $37,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-10-30 Listed $39,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-10-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-05-11 Listed $39,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,245 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.