171 Melhorn Rd · Haines City, FL 33844

$137,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1961 0.43 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Great opportunity in Haines City! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,080 sq ft plus an additional ~300 sq ft of usable space, situated on a generous 0.433-acre lot with no HOA. Built in 1961, the home features central A/C, a roof approximately 10–12 years old, and is serviced by well and septic, with a new drain field installed in 2025. Plumbing and electrical systems are in good condition, providing a solid foundation for improvements. Interior features include a functional layout ready for your personal touch. The home will benefit from updates, including older carpet, original windows, a compact bathroom, and a classic formica

Key facts

• New drain field
• Generous lot
• Central a/c

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• NO HOA
• CENTRAL A/C
• NEW DRAIN FIELD
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• OVERSIZED LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.43 acres (approx. 100 x 151 feet); Zoned RE-2
• Financial info: No lease restrictions reported; Partially furnished

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 carport space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; Electricity available and connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as single-story
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; No additional built-in appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $786 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,890 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.60%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $24,102
• Equity at exit: $20,427

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $70,516
• Equity at exit: $11,845

Cash invested: $38,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $815/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,068

Max offer price $137,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $864	-5% $825	+0% $786	+5% $748	+10% $709
Rent	-10% $623	-5% $705	+0% $786	+5% $868	+10% $949
Rate	-1.0pp $855	-0.5pp $821	base $786	+0.5pp $751	+1.0pp $715

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,250
• Closing costs: $4,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
432 Summer Grove Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,850	$1.44	24d	1	0.55mi
639 Ellison Pkwy Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	784	$1,200	$1.53	4d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   price $137,000
3. 2026-04-21
   price $13,700
4. 2026-04-10
   price $140,000
5. 2026-04-08
   price $142,000
6. 2026-04-03
   price $145,000
7. 2026-03-31
   price $150,000
8. 2026-03-27
   price $153,000
9. 2026-03-20
   listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $815 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,137 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$322/yr (+$27/mo · 39.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,674
• − Property taxes: −$815
• − Insurance: −$685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − Depreciation: −$3,985
• Taxable income: $7,636
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,833
• After-tax cash flow: $7,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $137,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $13,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $142,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $153,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+31.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $815 · +19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.