9 Evan Rd · Dover Plains, NY 12522

$429,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1989 0.67 ac lot Est $439k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

FULLY AVAILABLE 2/22/21 ---- SHORT SALE --- SOLD AS IS --- RAISED RANCH ON LEVEL LANDSCAPED PROPERTY WITH TERRIFIC VIEWS OF EAST MOUNTAIN! UPDATES INCLUDE A HIGH EFFICIENCY BUDERUS BOILER AND CENTRAL AIR SYSTEM- ABOUT 6 YEARS OLD... THERE IS A GENERATOR HOOKUP, WINDOWS ARE 4 YEARS OLD , THERE ARE 2 PELLET STOVES. MOTHER/DAUGHTER POSSIBILITIES WITH WALK OUT AND 3 FULL BATHS. CENTRAL A/C, LAUNDRY RM, UTILITY RM, FINISHED BASEMENT, 2 CAR GARAGE AND MORE.,ROOF:Fiberglass Shingles,AboveGrade:2313,Unfinished Square Feet:500,Basement:Garage Access,Interior Access

Key facts

• Desirable location
• Natural light
• Mountain views

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• VERSATILE LIVING SPACE
• NATURAL LIGHT
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity available and connected (Central Hudson); Water available and connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Property condition: actual
• Construction: Brick, frame, and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Brick, frame, and vinyl siding exterior; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Indirect water heater
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Oil-fired heating
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Double pane windows; Full basement; Full attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry room in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $569 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $429k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#818 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: commute C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Dover Union Free School District (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #433 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dover Elementary School (math 33% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,509 of 2,108 statewide, top 72%, 296 students, 71% FRL); Dover Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 301 students, 68% FRL); Dover High School (math 92% / reading 74%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 467 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 38% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $120k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $278k; list at $429k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $429,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.69%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $438,876
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Jmae Cir	0.23mi	3/2.5	2,094 (+4%)	22mo	$425,000	$203	61
36 Evan Rd	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,804 (-10%)	23mo	$395,000	$219	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $270,023
• Equity at exit: $386,477

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.38×
• Total profit: $766,880
• Equity at exit: $833,453

Cash invested: $120,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12522

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,565 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax from tax record: −$608 /mo · $7,299/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$959
• Net cashflow: $569

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,844

Max offer price $429,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $812	-5% $691	+0% $569	+5% $448	+10% $327
Rent	-10% $209	-5% $389	+0% $569	+5% $750	+10% $930
Rate	-1.0pp $785	-0.5pp $679	base $569	+0.5pp $458	+1.0pp $345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,250
• Closing costs: $12,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $429,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $429,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $429,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $429,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $429,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    listed $429,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,299 · $608/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,299 · $608/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,031
• − Property taxes: −$7,299
• − Insurance: −$2,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,382
• − Management: −$4,382
• − Depreciation: −$12,480
• Taxable income: $58
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$14
• After-tax cash flow: $6,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609210
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 40.25/100
• National rank: #3768
• State rank: #433 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dover Plains

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #818
• US rank: #15806

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living B Crime A Employment D- Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dover Plains, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,074

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.50%
• Current HPI: 262.8121
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+155.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $429,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $277,500 Public Records
• 2023-01-13 Sold (MLS) $287,050 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-05 Listed $259,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-03 Listed $279,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $376,300 Public Records
• 2007-04-11 Sold (MLS) $355,000 HGMLS
• 2006-12-16 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2006-12-16 Price Changed $365,000 HGMLS
• 2006-10-20 Listed $355,000 HGMLS
• 1994-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $168,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,299 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.