The Sparrow II Plan · Willis, TX 77318

$248,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,397 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Sparrow II offers great versatility with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room on the first floor. The primary suite at the back of the main level features a stylish en suite bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a large loft area, which can be converted into a fifth bedroom and a third bathroom. Enhance your backyard by adding a covered rear patio for the perfect outdoor space.

Key facts

• Large loft area
• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered rear patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STYLISH EN SUITE BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE LOFT AREA
• COVERED REAR PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $248,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Single-family plan (The Sparrow II)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2397; Located at 12595 Canyon Falls Blvd, Willis TX 77318

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan is The Sparrow II (new construction plan); Active listing

🏗️ New construction. The $248,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $278,238.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($433/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C C Hardy El (math 32% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 752 students, 83% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,255 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.56%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,238
• List price: $248,990
• Delta: -10.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12575 Canyon Falls Blvd	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,402 (+0%)	20mo	$310,000	$129	78
9749 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,173 (-9%)	2mo	$282,555	$130	76
9765 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,173 (-9%)	4mo	$290,160	$134	74
12375 Sunset Canyon Way	0.27mi	4/3.5	2,253 (-6%)	1mo	$288,075	$128	72
12307 Sunset Canyon Way	0.25mi	4/3.5	2,253 (-6%)	6mo	$334,910	$149	69
12739 Woodcreek Dr	0.41mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,284 (-5%)	0mo	$340,000	$149	66
9758 Enclave Ridge Rd	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,061 (-14%)	2mo	$259,990	$126	63
12079 Noble Heart Dr	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,300 (-4%)	18mo	$350,000	$152	58
240 River Grove St	0.75mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,358 (-2%)	15mo	$314,990	$134	43
13074 Falling Oak Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0	2,128 (-11%)	21mo	$155,000	$73	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-50,016
• Equity at exit: $41,486

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-68,524
• Equity at exit: $24,057

Cash invested: $77,907 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,459
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,174/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,434

Max offer price $278,238

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $132	+0% $36	+5% $-60	+10% $-156
Rent	-10% $-160	-5% $-62	+0% $36	+5% $134	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $176	-0.5pp $107	base $36	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,559
• Closing costs: $8,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
347 Skyline Ridge Dr Willis, TX	3.0	3.0	3000	$3,100	$1.03	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $248,990 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $248,990 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $248,990 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $248,990 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $248,990 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $248,990 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $248,990 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $248,990 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $248,990 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $248,990 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $248,990 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $248,990 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $248,990 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $248,990 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $248,990 457-char remark
16. 2026-05-04
    price $263,990 457-char remark
17. 2026-03-09
    listed $260,990 Active 457-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,586
• − Property taxes: −$4,174
• − Insurance: −$1,391
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,380
• − Management: −$2,380
• − Depreciation: −$8,094
• Taxable loss: −$4,249
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,020
• After-tax cash flow: $1,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Sparrow II is a well-maintained single-family home with good curb appeal and interior condition. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Fresh flooring improves aesthetics and reduces wear and tear.
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances add value and functionality to the kitchen.
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance the bathrooms and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Fresh flooring improves aesthetics and reduces wear and tear. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances add value and functionality to the kitchen. ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance the bathrooms and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willis, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B