507 Carthage St · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$290,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,935 sqft · SingleFamily · 162 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,534 sqft lot $150/sqft · 14% below area Est $336k · 14% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 507 Carthage Street, part of our Trailstone community in Caddo Mills, TX. Step into this inviting D. R. Horton Series home, where comfort meets effortless entertaining. The striking exterior, with its custom elevation and kiln-fired brick, sets the stage for what lies within. (Some elevations also include stone and siding. ) Greet guests on the covered porch, then through the 8-foot walnut gel-stained front door, into a welcoming foyer. The heart of this home is the expansive kitchen, featuring 42" flat panel cabinets, gleaming granite or quartz countertops, and a substantial island perfect for hosting gatherings. Stainless-steel appliances and a large pantry ensure you're always ready for culinary adventures. Laminate wood plank flooring flows seamlessly through the living areas, leading to the spacious primary suite. The luxurious primary bath, with its dual vanity, walk-in shower, and generous walk-in closet, provides a serene retreat. Energy Star features, an innovative tech package, and a smart home system enhance both comfort and efficiency. This home is designed for those who love to gather and celebrate. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features. Contact us today for more details!

Key facts

• Led lighting
• Community pool
• Large lakes

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LED LIGHTING
• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• COMMUNITY POOL
• LARGE LAKES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.7% in Caddo Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Frances And Jeannette Lee El (math 63% / reading 55%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 571 students, 29% FRL); Caddo Mills Middle (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 416 students, 28% FRL); Caddo Mills H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 681 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 369 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $224,352 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,972
• List price: $290,490
• Delta: -13.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 Range Rd	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,935 (0%)	5mo	$299,490	$155	93
514 Carthage St	0.04mi	4/2.0	2,017 (+4%)	2mo	$338,990	$168	89
513 Carthage St	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,060 (+6%)	0mo	$304,490	$148	84
506 Carthage St	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,060 (+6%)	2mo	$333,490	$162	82
200 Calico Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,011 (+4%)	1mo	$299,000	$149	78
215 Bobcat Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,829 (-6%)	5mo	$298,990	$163	75
127 Longhorn Pass	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,023 (+4%)	0mo	$295,000	$146	70
404 Flintlock Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,735 (-10%)	4mo	$287,490	$166	67
108 Condor Pass	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,830 (-5%)	4mo	$267,999	$146	67
167 Mockingbird Way	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,017 (+4%)	3mo	$289,000	$143	63
211 Bobcat Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,735 (-10%)	4mo	$294,030	$169	61
213 Pintail Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,012 (+4%)	1mo	$289,000	$144	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-64,537
• Equity at exit: $43,313

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-78,524
• Equity at exit: $25,116

Cash invested: $81,337 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 39 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.2 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $290,490 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 107 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,244 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,523
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$363 /mo · $4,357/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,592

Max offer price $250,678

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-175	+0% $-275	+5% $-376	+10% $-476
Rent	-10% $-452	-5% $-364	+0% $-275	+5% $-187	+10% $-98
Rate	-1.0pp $-129	-0.5pp $-201	base $-275	+0.5pp $-350	+1.0pp $-427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,622
• Closing costs: $8,715
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Range Rd Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2060	$2,500	$1.21	50d	1	0.07mi
210 Calico Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2012	$2,350	$1.17	10d	1	0.28mi
116 Kiskadee Trl Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$1,995	$0.99	32d	1	0.37mi
221 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,000	$0.99	31d	1	0.47mi
221 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2010	$1,950	$0.97	17d	1	0.47mi
132 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,400	$1.35	61d	1	0.49mi
152 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1826	$1,900	$1.04	4d	1	0.51mi
218 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,195	$1.27	93d	1	0.51mi
187 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,195	$1.10	54d	1	0.52mi
176 Mockingbird Way Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2035	$1,995	$0.98	1d	1	0.58mi
125 Smarty Jones St Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,100	$1.24	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $290,490 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $290,490 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $290,490 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $290,490 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $290,490 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $290,490 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $290,490 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $290,490 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $290,490 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $290,490 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $290,490 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $290,490 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $290,490 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $290,490 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $290,490 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $290,490 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $290,490 Active 140 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $290,490 Active 139 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $290,490 Active 138 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $290,490 Active 137 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $290,490 Active 136 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $290,490 Active 135 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $290,490 Active 134 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $290,490 Active 133 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $290,490 Active 132 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $290,490 Active 130 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $290,490 Active 129 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $290,490 Active 128 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $290,490 Active 127 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $290,490 Active 126 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $290,490 Active 125 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $290,490 Active 124 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    price $290,490 Active 123 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $287,490 Active 123 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $287,490 Active 122 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $287,490 Active 121 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $287,490 Active 120 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $287,490 Active 119 DOM
39. 2026-06-24
    days on market $292,490 Active 117 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $292,490 Active 115 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $292,490 Active 114 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $292,490 Active 111 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $292,490 Active 110 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $292,490 Active 109 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $292,490 Active 108 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $292,490 Active 106 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $292,490 Active 105 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    price $292,490 Active 102 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $302,490 Active 102 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $302,490 Active 101 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,272
• − Property taxes: −$4,357
• − Insurance: −$1,452
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,154
• − Management: −$2,154
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$8,451
• Taxable loss: −$8,398
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,015
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Frances And Jeannette Lee El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 Middle Caddo Mills Middle C+ TX #301/1,662 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Caddo Mills H S B+ TX #82/1,632 Nat'l #1,629/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt · 97,090 people
• City population: 10,265
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,265
• Household income: $95,428
• Rent vs Own: 13.0% rent · 87.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $302,490 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $302,490 NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $327,490 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $327,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $325,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Listed $323,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $323,490 NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $333,490 NTREIS