109 Old Toll · Lake Arrowhead, CA 92317

$724,900

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,308 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1977 0.27 ac lot $219/sqft · 28% below area Est $1013k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

When opportunity knocks, you PICK UP! Clay for molding — a rare ruby in the rough with deep mountain vibes for days. This home has the bones; with a little TLC it will shine as a neighborhood standout. Cradled like a baby on a treed lot in a sought-after & direct-hike community, it feels cool and serene with wooded walls and large windows that bring the outdoors in for full effect living. A dreamy primary suite, whimsical “fairytale” touches throughout, gorgeous tile, brick, and exposed beams create instant character — impressive from the first foot in the door. Enjoy a great room, expansive decking, and abundant guest space. True privacy is enhanced by an adja

Key facts

• Large windows
• Primary suite
• Expansive decking

Tags

• LARGE WINDOWS
• PRIMARY SUITE
• EXPANSIVE DECKING
• FULL LAKE-RIGHTS OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-family unit; No common walls; Additional parcel(s) present
• Financial info: Property listed as a fixer
• HOA & community: Community features: watersports, golf course, BLM/national forest access, rural setting, horse trails, hiking, fishing, mountainous terrain, lake access, biking, gutters, park, hunting, dog park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces; Driveway with down-slope from street; Total two parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: House; Two stories; Entry on level 2
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Raised foundation; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Down slope from street lot; Has view; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher; Formal dining room and eat-in kitchen; Kitchen open to family room
• Bedrooms: No main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Bathrooms include bathtub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Wood product walls; Living room balcony; Attached living room deck; Two staircases; Open floor plan; Tile counters; Three or more levels; Main level has one bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $725k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-752 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $592k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $501k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $501k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Arrowhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#965 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lake Arrowhead Elementary (421 students, 54% FRL); Mary P. Henck Intermediate (math 13% / reading 36%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 585 students, 61% FRL); Rim of The World Senior High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 917 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($703k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $528k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $501,224 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.45%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,013,210
• List price: $724,900
• Delta: -28.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
273 Shasta Dr	0.22mi	5/5.0	3,073 (-7%)	9mo	$693,000	$226	67
381 Old Toll Rd	0.35mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,283 (-1%)	11mo	$775,000	$236	66
432 Grizzly Rd	0.43mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,365 (+2%)	5mo	$875,000	$260	62
277 Grizzly Rd	0.24mi	5/3.5	2,824 (-15%)	2mo	$895,000	$317	61
439 Old Toll Rd	0.42mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,336 (+1%)	14mo	$625,000	$187	60
430 Rainier Rd	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,167 (-4%)	9mo	$800,000	$253	52
27442 Meadow Bay Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,240 (-2%)	10mo	$1,216,000	$375	52
420 Golf Course Rd	0.62mi	5/3.5	3,598 (+9%)	4mo	$1,800,000	$500	51
161 Rocky Point Rd	0.45mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,720 (+12%)	7mo	$2,550,000	$685	48
499 Golf Course Ln	0.65mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,253 (-2%)	19mo	$1,065,500	$328	44
27556 Meadow Bay Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,046 (-8%)	18mo	$1,800,000	$591	34
263 Golf Course Rd	0.37mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,820 (-15%)	16mo	$670,000	$238	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $39,329
• Equity at exit: $325,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $207,087
• Equity at exit: $502,322

Cash invested: $202,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92317

• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,012 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,801
• Tax from tax record: −$608 /mo · $7,297/yr
• Insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,053
• Net cashflow: $-752

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,964

Max offer price $592,076

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-342	-5% $-547	+0% $-752	+5% $-957	+10% $-1,162
Rent	-10% $-1,148	-5% $-950	+0% $-752	+5% $-554	+10% $-356
Rate	-1.0pp $-387	-0.5pp $-568	base $-752	+0.5pp $-940	+1.0pp $-1,131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $181,225
• Closing costs: $21,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27313 Pinewood Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	4.0	2.5	2746	$4,500	$1.64	26d	1	0.13mi
27598 Meadow Bay Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	5.0	3.5	4063	$9,000	$2.22	45d	1	0.62mi
400 Cottage Grove Rd Lake Arrowhead, CA	4.0	4.0	2500	$5,700	$2.28	45d	1	0.91mi
943 Nadelhorn Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	5.0	3.5	2890	$3,800	$1.31	45d	1	1.03mi
246 N Fairway Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	4.0	3.5	2439	$3,500	$1.44	18d	1	1.24mi
27775 Matterhorn Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	4.0	3.5	2706	$4,000	$1.48	0d	1	1.44mi
887 Talisman Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	4.0	3.0	3622	$4,900	$1.35	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $724,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $724,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $724,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $724,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $724,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $724,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $724,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $724,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $724,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $724,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $724,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $749,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $749,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $749,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $749,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $779,000 Active 894-char remark
17. 2022-08-26
    historical
18. 2022-08-25
    historical
19. 2022-08-24
    historical
20. 2022-08-24
    historical
21. 2017-11-17
    soldstatus $528,000
22. 2017-11-17
    soldstatus $528,000 Closed Sale
23. 2017-11-17
    soldstatus $528,000
24. 2017-11-17
    soldstatus $528,000
25. 2017-10-13
    status Pending Sale
26. 2017-05-05
    listed $549,000 Active
27. 2017-05-05
    listed $549,000
28. 2017-05-05
    listed $549,000
29. 2017-01-28
    historical
30. 2016-07-28
    listed $569,000 Active
31. 2016-07-28
    listed $569,000
32. 2015-04-30
    listed $579,000
33. 2014-05-23
    listed $589,000
34. 2006-05-22
    listed $649,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,297 · $608/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,297 · $608/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,606
• − Property taxes: −$7,297
• − Insurance: −$3,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,812
• − Management: −$4,812
• − Depreciation: −$21,088
• Taxable loss: −$22,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,302
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Arrowhead

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #965
• US rank: #24524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment B Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Arrowhead, CA
• City population: 6,246
• Population (ZIP): 708

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 16% German 8% Italian 7%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+11.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $724,900 CRMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $749,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $779,000 CRMLS
• 2022-08-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-08-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-08-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-08-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2017-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $528,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-17 Sold (MLS) $528,000 MRCAOR
• 2017-11-17 Sold (MLS) $528,000 CRMLS
• 2017-11-17 Sold (MLS) $528,000 CRMLS
• 2017-10-13 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-05-05 Listed $549,000 CRMLS
• 2017-05-05 Listed $549,000 MRCAOR
• 2017-05-05 Listed $549,000 CRMLS
• 2017-01-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-07-28 Listed $569,000 CRMLS
• 2016-07-28 Listed $569,000 CRMLS
• 2015-04-30 Listed $579,000 CRMLS
• 2014-05-23 Listed $589,000 CRMLS
• 2006-05-22 Listed $649,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,297 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.