6553 Firefly Dr · Bagdad, FL 32583

$270,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,439 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot Est $252k · 8% over $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The charming Rivers Cove community offers residents use of it's gorgeous Community Pool, Community Room and Playground. The ''Sullivan'' plan is a cozy cottage style home with no wasted space, a desirable open design for relaxed living. A stylish 4-bedroom, 2-bath home, plus a large storage room. Easy care beautiful wood look flooring, delightful kitchen with stainless appliances, quiet dishwasher, smooth top range, built in microwave and pantry. Also included is Fabric hurricane door/window protection and a Smart Home 'Connect' system with several convenient Smart Home Devices.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Smooth top range
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• COMMUNITY ROOM
• PLAYGROUND
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• QUIET DISHWASHER
• SMOOTH TOP RANGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $270,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (The Sullivan); Built as new construction (spec)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,439
• Exterior features: Located at 6553 Firefly Dr, Milton FL 32583

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (The Sullivan plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $271k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $220,373 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.95%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,825
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6501 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	0mo	$250,000	$174	100
6513 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	0mo	$259,900	$181	100
6505 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	2mo	$249,900	$174	98
6465 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	2mo	$249,900	$174	98
6485 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	2mo	$249,900	$174	98
6477 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	3mo	$249,900	$174	98
6516 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+9%)	1mo	$279,900	$179	79
6496 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+9%)	2mo	$281,900	$180	79
6432 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+9%)	2mo	$277,900	$177	78
6468 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+9%)	3mo	$274,900	$175	77
6400 Firefly Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+9%)	4mo	$274,000	$175	58
6604 Woodbrook Ct	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (-2%)	3mo	$275,000	$194	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-52,244
• Equity at exit: $40,392

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-45,909
• Equity at exit: $23,422

Cash invested: $75,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,204 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,421
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$339 /mo · $4,064/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,439

Max offer price $243,959

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,725
• Closing costs: $8,127
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6317 Firefly Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1439	$2,000	$1.39	21d	1	0.24mi
4170 Roosevelt Way Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,850	$1.05	23d	1	0.58mi
6478 Da Lisa Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	23d	1	0.88mi
6607 Woodbury Forest Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,900	$1.13	23d	1	0.88mi
4718 Lemoyne Vista Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,795	$1.16	23d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $270,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $270,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $270,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 585-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listing id $270,900 Active 1 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 231-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    listed $270,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,175
• − Property taxes: −$4,064
• − Insurance: −$1,354
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,116
• − Management: −$2,116
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$7,881
• Taxable loss: −$6,920
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,661
• After-tax cash flow: $-573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a modern kitchen and bathroom, and a well-maintained exterior. The home has a good rehab level of 'none' and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Smart home device integration — Improves convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Smart home device integration — Improves convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bagdad

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bagdad, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B