445 Michigan · Harlingen, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 111°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 8/10 · Major
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Schools +3.4/10.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -6.5
$39,900
445 Michigan · Harlingen, TX 78559
2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured
public records
· 150 Days on market
Manufactured home
Built 1978
2,400 sqft lot
$55/sqft
· 41% below area
Est $67k · 41% under
↓ 11% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Great opportunity in La Feria! Property features a mobile home situated on a residential lot. Mobile home will convey with the sale and is being sold as-is. Water is available on site; electricity is not currently connected. Fully renovated.
Key facts
- Fully renovated
- Residential lot
- Mobile home
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($813 rent vs $40k).
- Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 3.9% in Harlingen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 73/100 on livability (#217 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, commute F, employment F.
- La Feria ISD (suburban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #630 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Sam Houston El (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 440 students, 87% FRL); W B Green J H (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 454 students, 85% FRL); La Feria H S (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 909 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 50% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 314 active listings in the ZIP; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$35,112
(12.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.04% ✓
- Cap rate
- 17.68%
- Cash-on-cash
- 40.67%
- DSCR
- 2.81
- GRM
- 4.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $67,100
- List price
- $39,900
- Delta
- -40.54%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 2 within 2.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 306 Illinois Cir | 0.13mi | 2/1.0 | 784 (+8%) | 41mo | $65,000 | $83 | 61 |
| 26826 S Tamm Ln #57 | 0.91mi | 2/1.0 | 784 (+8%) | 2mo | $60,000 | $77 | 50 |
| 25919 Maple Dr | 1.22mi | 2/1.5 | 896 (+23%) | 12mo | $75,000 | $84 | 28 |
| 912 Temple Dr | 1.40mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 672 (-8%) | 55mo | $29,900 | $44 | 27 |
| 7101 Business 83 #14 | 1.94mi | 2/1.0 | 644 (-12%) | 52mo | $37,000 | $57 | 26 |
| 320 7th St | 2.10mi | 2/1.0 | 850 (+17%) | 17mo | $145,000 | $171 | 26 |
| 412 N 6th St | 2.14mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 792 (+9%) | 35mo | $104,000 | $131 | 25 |
| 900 Tangerine Dr | 1.43mi | 2/2.0 | 920 (+26%) | 15mo | $110,000 | $120 | 23 |
| 26826 S Tamm Ln #34 | 0.91mi | 2/1.0 | 834 (+15%) | 31mo | $75,000 | $90 | 21 |
| 25901 Beckham Rd | 2.13mi | 2/1.0 | 910 (+25%) | 38mo | $65,000 | $71 | 20 |
| 909 Hamlin St | 1.41mi | 2/1.5 | 912 (+25%) | 30mo | $60,000 | $66 | 18 |
| 500 W 7th St | 2.17mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 850 (+17%) | 36mo | $150,000 | $176 | 15 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 37.1%
- Equity multiple
- 2.58×
- Total profit
- $17,657
- Equity at exit
- $5,949
10-year hold
- IRR
- 43.7%
- Equity multiple
- 5.16×
- Total profit
- $46,452
- Equity at exit
- $3,450
Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 3 active · 3 under contract
- Months of supply
- 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $69,500 ($83/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 153 d
- This list price
- lowest-priced of the active set
- ARV vs active asking
- +11.4% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 78559
- Home prices YoY
- -6.1%
- Active inventory
- 314
- Price-to-rent
- 4.1×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $813 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$209
- Tax from tax record
- −$38 /mo · $455/yr
- Insurance
- −$17
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$171
- Net cashflow
- $379
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$334
Max offer price
$39,900
Occupancy floor
48%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $401 | -5% $390 | +0% $379 | +5% $367 | +10% $356 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $314 | -5% $347 | +0% $379 | +5% $411 | +10% $443 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $399 | -0.5pp $389 | base $379 | +0.5pp $368 | +1.0pp $358 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $9,975
- Closing costs
- $1,197
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $39,900 Active 150 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $39,900 Active 149 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $39,900 Active 148 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $39,900 Active 147 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $39,900 Active 146 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $39,900 Active 145 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $39,900 Active 142 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $39,900 Active 141 DOM
-
2026-07-29days on market $39,900 Active 140 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $39,900 Active 138 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $39,900 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $39,900 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $39,900 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $39,900 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $39,900 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $39,900 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $39,900 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $39,900 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $39,900 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $39,900 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-07-12days on market $39,900 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $39,900 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $39,900 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $39,900 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-07-08days on market $39,900 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $39,900 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $39,900 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $39,900 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-07-04days on market $39,900 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $39,900 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $39,900 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $39,900 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $39,900 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $39,900 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $39,900 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $39,900 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $39,900 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-06-25days on market $39,900 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-06-23days on market $39,900 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $39,900 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $39,900 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $39,900 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $39,900 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $39,900 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $39,900 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $39,900 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $39,900 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $39,900 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $39,900 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $39,900 Active 88 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $455 · $38/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $730 · $61/mo
- Expected delta
- +$275/yr (+$23/mo · 60.5%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $9,759
- − Mortgage interest
- −$2,235
- − Property taxes
- −$455
- − Insurance
- −$200
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$781
- − Management
- −$781
- − Depreciation
- −$1,161
- Taxable income
- $4,147
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$995
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,549/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $3,640–$10,920 screening
This fully-renovated mobile home is in good condition with new finishes and systems. Minor landscaping and fence improvements would further enhance its value.
Deferred maintenance Est. $70,000–$210,000 screening
- Major Roof (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — roof appears damaged and tilted
- Major Exterior (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — exterior siding appears damaged and tilted
- Major Windows (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — windows appear damaged and tilted
- Major Electrical (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — electrical wiring and fixtures appear damaged
- Major Plumbing (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — plumbing fixtures appear damaged and tilted
- Major Exterior (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — exterior siding appears damaged and tilted
- Major Other (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — other exterior components appear damaged and tilted
Value-add opportunities
- Both Landscaping and fence — Enhances curb appeal and privacy. ↑
- Both Connect electricity — Enables use of appliances and lights. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Sam Houston El
F
TX #2,525/4,322
Nat'l #26,716/41,679
Middle
W B Green J H
F
TX #1,077/1,662
Nat'l #9,020/14,009
High
La Feria H S
F
TX #730/1,632
Nat'l #7,572/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- La Feria ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4826040
- Math proficiency
- 27% ▼ -25.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 35% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $33,306
- Composite
- 25.41/100
- National rank
- #7460
- State rank
- #630 of 826 in TX
B
Composite livability gradescore 73/100
Livability — Harlingen
- Score
- 73/100
- State rank
- #217
- US rank
- #5347
Category grades
Amenities A+
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime C-
Employment F
Housing A+
Health & safety A+
User ratings F
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Cameron · 441,603 people
- City population
- 95,667
- Metro
- Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 12,752
- Household income
- $48,117
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 8% of renters
Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 441,603 people
- By 2030
- 448,113 · +1.5%
- By 2040
- 456,385 · +3.3%
- By 2050
- 456,294 · +3.3%
- By 2075
- 423,851 · -4.0%
- By 2100
- 342,787 · -22.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Hispanic (91%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 91% Two or more races 35% White 8%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 87%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 17% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 40% English-only · Spanish 60%
Political lean MEDSL · Cameron
- 2024 margin
- Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -12.21%
- Current HPI
- 187.8512
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
||
Price history
-11.3% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-05 Price Changed $39,900 RGVMLS
- 2026-03-11 Listed $45,000 RGVMLS
Property tax history
+2.9%/yrLatest (2025): $455 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…