18 Alpine Rd Unit C · Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

$164,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 1983 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot $186/sqft · 23% below area Est $212k · 23% under $139/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome To Whiting, 55+ Community In Crestwood Village 6. A real mint Glenview home with 2 bedrooms and a full bath and 1/2 bath. Generous size living room with eat-in kitchen with refrigerator and stove. This home features a newer Central air conditioner, roof 3 years old, Clubhouse right down the road. This home has a front Florida room, laundry room with washer and dryer and direct entry to the garage. Plantation Blinds and Ceiling fans, Getter Guards, Shower Stall for your convenience. Private lush back yard. Clean, move in condition!!

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Laundry room
• 5,227 sq ft lot

Tags

• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER
• NEWER ROOF
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE LUSH BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Crestwood Village 6) with monthly fee; Monthly association fee of $139; HOA covers trash and snow removal; Community clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: Glenview; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level topography; Attached property (end unit or attached dwelling)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave, Stove, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom and 1 half bathroom (1.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer, Dryer, Blinds/Shades, Ceiling fans, Light fixtures, Garage door opener
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $164k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($930/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,448
• List price: $164,000
• Delta: -22.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Alpine Rd Unit C	0.04mi	2/1.0	965 (+10%)	8mo	$229,000	$237	73
20 Amesbury Rd Unit B	0.27mi	2/1.0	965 (+10%)	1mo	$168,000	$174	69
41 Stonybrook Rd Unit A	0.51mi	2/1.0	924 (+5%)	5mo	$168,000	$182	62
8 Mill Rd #64	0.41mi	2/1.0	965 (+10%)	8mo	$170,000	$176	56
44 Stonybrook Rd #62	0.39mi	2/1.0	924 (+5%)	19mo	$180,000	$195	56
60 Beaver Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0	950 (+8%)	15mo	$43,000	$45	52
83 Woodchuck Pkwy	0.58mi	2/1.0	864 (-2%)	19mo	$36,000	$42	52
40 Stonybrook Rd #62	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+14%)	3mo	$150,000	$149	51
41D Medford Rd	0.67mi	2/1.0	925 (+5%)	13mo	$168,000	$182	48
27A Mill Rd	0.54mi	2/1.5	965 (+10%)	13mo	$240,000	$249	48
9 Greenwood Ln #62	0.48mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,009 (+15%)	1mo	$190,000	$188	46
1 Greenwood Ln Unit B	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,009 (+15%)	2mo	$252,000	$250	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-21,526
• Equity at exit: $24,453

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-11,935
• Equity at exit: $14,180

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,709 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$205 /mo · $2,460/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$139
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,611

Max offer price $164,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $134	+0% $78	+5% $21	+10% $-36
Rent	-10% $-57	-5% $10	+0% $78	+5% $145	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $119	base $78	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Autumn Ct Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	0d	1	0.43mi
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	5d	1	0.57mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	26d	1	1.17mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	18d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $139 · $1,668/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $164,000 Active 546-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$2,460
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − HOA: −$1,668
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable loss: −$1,682
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$404
• After-tax cash flow: $1,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 23 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with minor repairs needed. It's move-in ready with a good roof and well-maintained exterior. Updates to the interior walls, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom fixtures would significantly increase its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated design

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes kitchen
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizes bathroom

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes kitchen ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizes bathroom ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Ridge at Crestwood

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #18916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $164,000 MOMLS