2026 Banton Shop Rd · Buckingham Courthouse, VA 23936

$309,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,725 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 1998 6.89 ac lot Est $293k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large property with lots of acreage! Covered front porch and addition on back. Needs some TLC, great investment property!

Key facts

• Room for gardens
• Vaulted ceilings
• Room for animals

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• HIGH-SPEED FIBER INTERNET
• ROOM FOR GARDENS
• ROOM FOR ANIMALS
• ROOM FOR FUTURE OUTBUILDINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water (private); Septic tank; Fiber optic available
• Home design: Detached single-level home; One story
• Construction: Manufactured construction with vinyl siding; Block foundation; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Porch; Lot of approximately 6.89 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms; Primary bedroom on the first level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, both on the main level; Primary bathroom on the first level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary suite located on the main level; Utility room; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Utility room on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (35.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#363 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Buckingham County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #117 of 131 in VA (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Buckingham Co Primary (355 students, 93% FRL); Buckingham County Middle (math 31% / reading 50%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 466 students, 92% FRL); Buckingham County High (math 57% / reading 62%, grade C+, #247 of 319 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 60% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 96 units permitted in Buckingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Buckingham County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $310k implies a 796% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,747 (35.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,250
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2237 Banton Shop Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,908 (+11%)	8mo	$325,000	$170	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $150,430
• Equity at exit: $279,182

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $457,047
• Equity at exit: $602,068

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23936

• Home prices YoY: 21.8%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,411/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,369

Max offer price $259,382

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-198	+0% $-286	+5% $-374	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-445	-5% $-365	+0% $-286	+5% $-207	+10% $-127
Rate	-1.0pp $-130	-0.5pp $-207	base $-286	+0.5pp $-366	+1.0pp $-448

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $309,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $309,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $309,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $309,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $309,900 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-09
    listed $309,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,541 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,130/yr (+$94/mo · 80.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$1,411
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,927
• − Management: −$1,927
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$9,100
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,184
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buckingham County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100540
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,158
• Composite: 35.58/100
• National rank: #4897
• State rank: #117 of 131 in VA

Livability — Buckingham Courthouse

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #14483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,992

Population outlook (Buckingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,866 people
• By 2030: 16,625 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 16,108 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 15,588 · -7.6%
• By 2075: 14,125 · -16.3%
• By 2100: 11,701 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 40% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buckingham

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.8% · R 61.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+13.2 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+2.4 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.71%
• Current HPI: 221.8804
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+377.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $309,900 CAAR
• 2017-05-26 Sold (MLS) $34,600 LMLS
• 2017-04-24 Listed $39,900 LMLS
• 2017-01-27 Listed $64,900 GAAR

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,411 · +89.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.