5408 Chateau Ln · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34207

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 409 Days on market

Built 1974 4,617 sqft lot Est $115k · 12% over $250/mo HOA · 17% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated Price: $129,000. Affordable and Furnished Unit. Chateau Village - 2BR/2BA Furnished Home with Florida Room! Enjoy the activities in this Active 55+ Community with NO LOT RENT and Low Maintenance Fee. Step into move-in ready Florida living in this charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath home with these updates, new A/C (2024), updated electrical panel, renovated bathrooms, and mostly updated windows. Relax year round in the glassed enclosed Florida room, perfect for entertaining or enjoying your morning coffee. With NO Lot Rent and $250/month maintenance fee covering water, sewer, trash, lawn cutting, cable internet, on-site manager, heated pool, shuffleboard and back gate access this home of

Key facts

• Brand-new a/c
• Renovated bathrooms
• No lot rent

Tags

• NO LOT RENT
• LOW MAINTENANCE FEE
• BRAND-NEW A/C
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL PANEL
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• GLASSED-IN FLORIDA ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: 0.11 acres; Lot road surface: Asphalt; Living area (public records): 960 sq. ft. (89.19 m²); Building area total: 1,790 sq. ft.; Lot size approx 0.11 acre (429 m²)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $250, approval required); Association name: Patrick Green; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); Single-story; Faces east; Entry level: One
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, employment F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: G D Rogers Garden- Bullock Elementary (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,009 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 504 students, 78% FRL); Electa Lee Magnet Middle School (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #495 of 571 statewide, top 87%, 759 students, 68% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-27 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 409 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $87k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 409 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.63%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
502 Bolivia Blvd	0.10mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	2mo	$124,900	$130	90
703 Corsica Ct	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+5%)	4mo	$98,000	$97	80
403 52nd Avenue Plz W	0.27mi	2/1.0	846 (-12%)	1mo	$75,000	$89	67
704 49th Avenue Ter W	0.58mi	2/1.0	978 (+2%)	4mo	$125,000	$128	66
5530 Denmark Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	864 (-10%)	4mo	$70,000	$81	66
406 50th Ave W	0.55mi	2/1.5	928 (-3%)	3mo	$128,900	$139	65
1106 51st Ave W	0.51mi	2/1.0	890 (-7%)	2mo	$54,000	$61	62
511 50th Avenue Dr W	0.53mi	2/1.5	880 (-8%)	2mo	$66,500	$76	58
1106 49th Avenue Dr W	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,013 (+6%)	1mo	$145,000	$143	55
918 49th Ave W	0.66mi	2/2.0	876 (-9%)	4mo	$127,000	$145	48
715 50th Avenue Ter W	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+15%)	4mo	$75,000	$68	46
4809 4th St W	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+15%)	2mo	$132,500	$120	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-18,217
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-23,403
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,508 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,220/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,370

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $146	+0% $109	+5% $73	+10% $36
Rent	-10% $-10	-5% $50	+0% $109	+5% $169	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $142	base $109	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5502 8th Street Ct W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,595	$1.78	25d	1	0.15mi
5580 Fountain Lake Cir Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$1,908	$1.81	3d	38	0.18mi
205 52nd Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	528	$1,200	$2.27	25d	1	0.37mi
1007 57th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	967	$1,495	$1.55	12d	1	0.41mi
110 52nd Avenue Ter E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	684	$1,450	$2.12	25d	1	0.43mi
608 51st Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	760	$2,200	$2.89	25d	1	0.45mi
503 51st Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	882	$1,075	$1.22	13d	1	0.47mi
503 51st Ave W Unit 503 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	882	$1,275	$1.45	25d	1	0.48mi
915 50th Avenue Plz W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	25d	1	0.59mi
707 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	730	$1,150	$1.58	25d	1	0.61mi
5531 16th St W Unit 5537 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	5d	1	0.64mi
5828 3rd St E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1036	$1,995	$1.93	25d	1	0.66mi
4810 Ho Wil Ln Unit 4810 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,600	$2.04	25d	1	0.73mi
5513 18th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	25d	1	0.74mi
4903 2nd B St E Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	624	$2,400	$3.85	25d	1	0.78mi
716 56th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	5d	1	0.80mi
5613 8th St Ct E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	25d	1	0.81mi
655 Park Cir Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.5	816	$1,100	$1.35	25d	1	0.81mi
512 60th Avenue Ter W Unit 512 Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.5	972	$1,900	$1.95	12d	1	0.81mi
304 47th Avenue Dr W #112 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	25d	1	0.84mi
4630 5th St W Ste 6 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	13d	1	0.89mi
5908 17th St W Unit C36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$950	$1.65	17d	1	0.89mi
1566 Pleasant Rd Unit J24 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	25d	1	0.91mi
202 46th Avenue Ter W #409 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1086	$1,995	$1.84	25d	1	0.92mi
1807 Restful Dr Unit N4 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	5d	1	0.93mi
5888 17th St W Unit C23 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	25d	1	0.93mi
203 46th Avenue Ter W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	880	$1,099	$1.25	5d	1	0.94mi
3 Date Ave Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	25d	1	0.96mi
1859 Restful Dr Unit L26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,150	$2.00	25d	1	0.97mi
1875 Sunny Dr Unit G32 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	25d	1	0.98mi
1825 Flamingo Blvd Unit O26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,000	$1.74	25d	1	0.98mi
1839 Sunny Dr Unit E36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,350	$2.34	25d	1	0.99mi
1874 Sunny Dr Unit F32 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$950	$1.28	25d	1	1.01mi
4507 3rd Street Cir W #280 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	660	$1,300	$1.97	17d	1	1.01mi
5858 Welcome Rd Unit J23 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	5d	1	1.01mi
5820 21st St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,995	$1.79	5d	1	1.06mi
5955 Palm Ln Unit A33 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	16d	1	1.06mi
5896 Palm Ln Unit C27 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	966	$1,400	$1.45	25d	1	1.06mi
1009 W 63rd AVE Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	815	$1,495	$1.83	17d	1	1.08mi
2028 Canal Dr Unit M26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,050	$1.82	12d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashelectricinternetcablepool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,000 Active 409 DOM
2. 2026-02-24
   price $129,000
3. 2025-10-17
   price $150,900
4. 2025-04-17
   listed $159,000 Active
5. 2006-05-27
   soldstatus $86,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,220 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,220 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,220
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,448
• − Management: −$1,448
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$154
• After-tax cash flow: $1,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayshore Gardens, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+48.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $150,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-17 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $86,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,220 · -7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.