Is Annona Plan in Waller, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 6.4% cap rate and $10/mo modeled cash flow at a $184,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Annona Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 6.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,700/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D Composite 44.49

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +13.6/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
DSCR +4.1/10.0
Schools +4.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.8/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Appreciation +2.9/10.0
Rent growth +1.6/5.0

$184,990

Annona Plan · Waller, TX 77484

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 426 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The single-story Annona offers easy living for growing families, working professionals, and empty nesters alike. Featuring a nice sized primary suite and a pair of guest bedrooms on the opposite end of the home for family members or guests. Cook for favorite meal in the free-flowing kitchen or enjoy a good book and a cool breeze under your covered patio.

Key facts

Primary suite
Covered patio
Guest bedrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($126/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (8.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1877 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 426 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $162,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 426 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.88% ✗
Cap rate: 6.36%
Cash-on-cash: 0.23%
DSCR: 1.01
GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $192,769
List price: $184,990
Delta: -4.04%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30512 Wolfburn St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	1mo	$174,365	$165	92
30520 Wolfburn St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	5mo	$187,245	$177	87
30519 Bladnoch Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	9mo	$179,990	$170	86
30528 Bladnoch Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,066 (+1%)	9mo	$192,245	$180	85
30509 Bladnoch Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+6%)	5mo	$198,405	$177	80
30514 Wolfburn St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+6%)	5mo	$192,295	$172	78
30522 Wolfburn St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+6%)	7mo	$189,795	$170	76
30530 Wolfburn St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+6%)	9mo	$197,295	$176	74
30533 Bladnoch Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+6%)	8mo	$198,720	$178	70
30546 Bladnoch Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,204 (+14%)	2mo	$219,980	$183	66
23123 Daftmill Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+14%)	3mo	$239,230	$199	66
23107 Daftmill Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+14%)	5mo	$239,230	$199	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -19.3%
Equity multiple: 0.34×
Total profit: $-35,525
Equity at exit: $28,743

10-year hold

IRR: -20.0%
Equity multiple: 0.09×
Total profit: $-49,221
Equity at exit: $16,667

Cash invested: $53,975 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 4 active · 11 under contract
Months of supply: 2.7 mo (38%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $207,495 ($176/sqft)
Median days on market: 376 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +3.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

Home prices YoY: -1.0%
Rents YoY: -3.8%
Active inventory: 1877
Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,700 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,011
Tax est. 1.5%: −$241 /mo · $2,892/yr
Insurance: −$80
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,686

Max offer price $192,769

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $77	+0% $10	+5% $-56	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-124	-5% $-57	+0% $10	+5% $78	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $108	-0.5pp $59	base $10	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $48,192
Closing costs: $5,783
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Listing history 50 events

2026-10-29

days on market $184,990 Active 426 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $184,990 Active 425 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $184,990 Active 424 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $184,990 Active 423 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $184,990 Active 422 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $184,990 Active 421 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $184,990 Active 420 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $184,990 Active 419 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $184,990 Active 418 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $184,990 Active 417 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $184,990 Active 416 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $184,990 Active 415 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $184,990 Active 414 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $184,990 Active 413 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $184,990 Active 412 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $184,990 Active 411 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $184,990 Active 410 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $184,990 Active 409 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $184,990 Active 408 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $184,990 Active 407 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $184,990 Active 406 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $184,990 Active 405 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $184,990 Active 404 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $184,990 Active 403 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $184,990 Active 402 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $184,990 Active 401 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $184,990 Active 400 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $184,990 Active 399 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $184,990 Active 398 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $184,990 Active 397 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $184,990 Active 396 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $184,990 Active 395 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $184,990 Active 394 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $184,990 Active 393 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $184,990 Active 392 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $184,990 Active 391 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $184,990 Active 390 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $184,990 Active 389 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $184,990 Active 388 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $184,990 Active 387 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $184,990 Active 386 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $184,990 Active 385 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $184,990 Active 384 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $184,990 Active 383 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $184,990 Active 382 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $184,990 Active 381 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $184,990 Active 380 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $184,990 Active 379 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $184,990 Active 372 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $184,990 Active 371 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $20,395
− Mortgage interest: −$10,798
− Property taxes: −$2,892
− Insurance: −$964
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
− Management: −$1,632
− Depreciation: −$5,608
Taxable loss: −$3,130

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$751
After-tax cash flow: $877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story Annona home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for modest improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring in bedrooms — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Install smart home automation — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fields Store El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

Score: 61/100
State rank: #1003
US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 14,348
Household income: $81,250
Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
Current HPI: 397.85
Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2025-08-30 Price Changed $184,990 Zillow
2025-08-29 Listed $194,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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