415 S Timber Trl · Wildwood, FL 34785

$92,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1984 5,637 sqft lot Est $125k · 25% under $515/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

By far the best value in Continental Country Club, located minutes from the Villages! This clean, functional, move-in ready home offers a fantastic opportunity to enjoy everything the retired lifestyle is known for—golf, recreation, entertainment, and an active 55+ community. While the home could benefit from some cosmetic updates, the price simply can’t be beat, making it the perfect opportunity to add your own personal touches and build instant value. The seller is also offering a $1,000 closing cost credit for buyers who close within 30 days of contract. Inside, you’ll find a spacious and inviting layout with a bright living room that flows into an air-conditioned Flori

Key facts

• En-suite bath
• Built-in hutch
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• AIR-CONDITIONED FLORIDA ROOM
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• BREAKFAST BAR
• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association contact listed; Directions: From Leesburg take State Rd 44 West to Continental Country Club; ask security at gate for a map
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee required (approximately $515.84); Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, recreation facilities, private road maintenance, trash service, and security; Buyer approval and association approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed; Community features: golf, golf carts allowed, community mailbox, deed restrictions, special community restrictions, association-owned recreation

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; 1-space carport
• Security: Gated community; 24-hour guard included with association
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces southwest
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built in 1 building; Double wide body type
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Storage; Other exterior features; Mature landscaping with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $93k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $93k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.9% in Wildwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $642 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $93k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,326 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.04%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,696
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Robin Ln	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+1%)	3mo	$59,000	$51	82
111 Sugar Maple Ave	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+1%)	2mo	$125,000	$109	81
114 Cypress Rd	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,144 (0%)	7mo	$152,600	$133	76
102 Robin Ln	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	4mo	$117,500	$113	68
108 Winterberry Ave	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	1mo	$70,000	$67	68
104 Winterberry Ave	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	6mo	$134,000	$107	66
600 Oak Blvd	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,288 (+13%)	5mo	$140,000	$109	62
116 Cypress Rd	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	5mo	$47,000	$45	62
100 Lyonia Ln	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	12mo	$128,000	$103	61
110 Forest Blvd	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	3mo	$220,000	$208	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $1,632
• Equity at exit: $13,852

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $23,056
• Equity at exit: $8,032

Cash invested: $26,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34785

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,749 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$487
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $955/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$515
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,418

Max offer price $92,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $314	-5% $287	+0% $261	+5% $235	+10% $208
Rent	-10% $123	-5% $192	+0% $261	+5% $330	+10% $399
Rate	-1.0pp $308	-0.5pp $285	base $261	+0.5pp $237	+1.0pp $213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,225
• Closing costs: $2,787
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5541 Goodman Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1203	$1,990	$1.65	22d	1	0.31mi
21204 Sandalwood Dr Unit 21-204 Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,550	$1.40	22d	1	0.61mi
15203 Sandalwood Dr #203 Wildwood, FL	3.0	3.0	1474	$1,550	$1.05	22d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $515 · $6,180/yr

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $92,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $92,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,900 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $92,900 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,900 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $94,900 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $94,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $94,900 Active 67 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    price $99,900
19. 2026-04-17
    price $104,900
20. 2026-04-09
    price $109,900
21. 2026-03-24
    listed $114,900 Active
22. 2025-09-25
    historical
23. 2025-09-24
    price $124,900
24. 2025-06-21
    price $119,900
25. 2025-06-09
    listed $124,900 Active
26. 2025-05-25
    historical
27. 2025-04-23
    price $114,900
28. 2025-03-17
    price $119,900
29. 2025-01-17
    price $124,900
30. 2024-11-28
    listed $129,900 Active
31. 2024-11-21
    historical
32. 2024-11-12
    price $129,900
33. 2024-11-05
    price $139,900
34. 2024-10-31
    listed $144,900 Active
35. 2019-02-08
    historical
36. 2018-02-16
    listed $69,900 Active
37. 2016-01-19
    soldstatus $42,500 Sold
38. 2015-12-12
    status Pending
39. 2014-06-10
    historical
40. 2014-05-16
    price $45,500
41. 2014-05-16
    price $48,900
42. 2014-05-16
    price $54,900
43. 2014-05-16
    status Active
44. 2012-06-23
    listed $59,900 Active
45. 2011-11-15
    listed $59,900
46. 1985-05-01
    soldstatus $13,900
47. 1985-05-01
    soldstatus $13,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $955 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $955 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,204
• − Property taxes: −$955
• − Insurance: −$464
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,679
• − Management: −$1,679
• − HOA: −$6,180
• − Depreciation: −$2,703
• Taxable income: $2,122
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$509
• After-tax cash flow: $2,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wildwood

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #8500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 21,568
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,568
• Household income: $66,136
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 730.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.14%
• Current HPI: 267.9137
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+618.7% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $104,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-21 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-09 Listed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-17 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-17 Price Changed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-28 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-31 Listed $144,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-16 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-19 Sold (MLS) $42,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-16 Price Changed $48,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-16 Price Changed $45,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-16 Price Changed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-23 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-15 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1985-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,900 Public Records
• 1985-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $955 · +150.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.