815 Saddle Creek Cv · Hernando, MS 38632

$349,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,321 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2006 0.55 ac lot $265/sqft · 64% above area Est $357k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this adorable home, perfectly situated just minutes from The Hernando Town Square. This gem boasts a fresh, modern look with a stunning stone and brick entryway. Step inside to discover an inviting formal dining room right off the entryway, with convenient access to the kitchen. The kitchen itself is a delight, featuring upgraded appliances including double ovens, a cozy breakfast area, and a handy breakfast/snack bar that opens up to the great room. Retreat to the spacious master bedroom, which boasts a private salon bath and a large walk-in closet. The upstairs area provides even more space with two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and a sizable bonus room that can serve as a fourth bedroom or flexible living space. You'll also love the catwalk with its fantastic view down to the great room. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio, overlooking a privacy-fenced backyard that's perfect for relaxation or entertaining. Plus, don't miss the practical tornado shelter located in the garage, offering peace of mind during stormy weather. This home truly has it all - come see it for yourself and make it yours today!

Key facts

• 0.55 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (management included); Curbs in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Concrete driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water and sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family house; Two levels; Move-in ready; New construction; Assessor-listed living area; Located on a cul-de-sac; landscaped lot
• Construction: Brick veneer, siding, and stone exterior; Slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Built as new construction (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Patio; Rain gutters; Privacy wood fencing (full)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Electric range; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar and pantry
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (2.5 total bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Multi-unit cooling system
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Deadbolt locks; Hinged patio doors; Gas-log fireplace in great room; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-364 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#44 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elem (779 students, 100% FRL); Hernando Middle School (math 75% / reading 57%, grade A-, #2 of 179 statewide, top 1%, 1,150 students, 100% FRL); Hernando High School (math 69% / reading 62%, grade B, #2 of 197 statewide, top 1%, 1,419 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Desoto County School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 407 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,592 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.46%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,470
• List price: $349,900
• Delta: -2.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
270 Gaslight Cv	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,365 (+3%)	1mo	$265,000	$194	60
85 Desoto Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+6%)	15mo	$285,000	$203	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-86,777
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-132,009
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38632

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 407
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,465/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,767

Max offer price $285,515

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-166	-5% $-265	+0% $-364	+5% $-464	+10% $-563
Rent	-10% $-547	-5% $-456	+0% $-364	+5% $-273	+10% $-182
Rate	-1.0pp $-188	-0.5pp $-275	base $-364	+0.5pp $-455	+1.0pp $-547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1324 Biloxi St Hernando, MS	3.0	2.0	1594	$1,950	$1.22	25d	1	0.48mi
947 Clubhouse Dr Hernando, MS	4.0	2.0	1713	$2,495	$1.46	45d	1	0.87mi
1670 Timber Creek Dr Hernando, MS	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,945	$1.16	45d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $349,900 Active 677-char remark
2. 2024-09-26
   soldstatus
3. 2024-09-24
   soldstatus Closed 1143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1143 chars)

   Welcome to this adorable home, perfectly situated just minutes from The Hernando Town Square. This gem boasts a fresh, modern look with a stunning stone and brick entryway. Step inside to discover an inviting formal dining room right off the entryway, with convenient access to the kitchen. The kitchen itself is a delight, featuring upgraded appliances including double ovens, a cozy breakfast area, and a handy breakfast/snack bar that opens up to the great room. Retreat to the spacious master bedroom, which boasts a private salon bath and a large walk-in closet. The upstairs area provides even more space with two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and a sizable bonus room that can serve as a fourth bedroom or flexible living space. You'll also love the catwalk with its fantastic view down to the great room. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio, overlooking a privacy-fenced backyard that's perfect for relaxation or entertaining. Plus, don't miss the practical tornado shelter located in the garage, offering peace of mind during stormy weather. This home truly has it all - come see it for yourself and make it yours today!

4. 2024-08-27
   status Pending 1143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1143 chars)

   Welcome to this adorable home, perfectly situated just minutes from The Hernando Town Square. This gem boasts a fresh, modern look with a stunning stone and brick entryway. Step inside to discover an inviting formal dining room right off the entryway, with convenient access to the kitchen. The kitchen itself is a delight, featuring upgraded appliances including double ovens, a cozy breakfast area, and a handy breakfast/snack bar that opens up to the great room. Retreat to the spacious master bedroom, which boasts a private salon bath and a large walk-in closet. The upstairs area provides even more space with two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and a sizable bonus room that can serve as a fourth bedroom or flexible living space. You'll also love the catwalk with its fantastic view down to the great room. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio, overlooking a privacy-fenced backyard that's perfect for relaxation or entertaining. Plus, don't miss the practical tornado shelter located in the garage, offering peace of mind during stormy weather. This home truly has it all - come see it for yourself and make it yours today!

5. 2024-08-22
   historical Contingency - Right of First Refusal 1143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1143 chars)

   Welcome to this adorable home, perfectly situated just minutes from The Hernando Town Square. This gem boasts a fresh, modern look with a stunning stone and brick entryway. Step inside to discover an inviting formal dining room right off the entryway, with convenient access to the kitchen. The kitchen itself is a delight, featuring upgraded appliances including double ovens, a cozy breakfast area, and a handy breakfast/snack bar that opens up to the great room. Retreat to the spacious master bedroom, which boasts a private salon bath and a large walk-in closet. The upstairs area provides even more space with two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and a sizable bonus room that can serve as a fourth bedroom or flexible living space. You'll also love the catwalk with its fantastic view down to the great room. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio, overlooking a privacy-fenced backyard that's perfect for relaxation or entertaining. Plus, don't miss the practical tornado shelter located in the garage, offering peace of mind during stormy weather. This home truly has it all - come see it for yourself and make it yours today!

6. 2024-08-08
   listed $319,900 Active 1143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1143 chars)

   Welcome to this adorable home, perfectly situated just minutes from The Hernando Town Square. This gem boasts a fresh, modern look with a stunning stone and brick entryway. Step inside to discover an inviting formal dining room right off the entryway, with convenient access to the kitchen. The kitchen itself is a delight, featuring upgraded appliances including double ovens, a cozy breakfast area, and a handy breakfast/snack bar that opens up to the great room. Retreat to the spacious master bedroom, which boasts a private salon bath and a large walk-in closet. The upstairs area provides even more space with two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and a sizable bonus room that can serve as a fourth bedroom or flexible living space. You'll also love the catwalk with its fantastic view down to the great room. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio, overlooking a privacy-fenced backyard that's perfect for relaxation or entertaining. Plus, don't miss the practical tornado shelter located in the garage, offering peace of mind during stormy weather. This home truly has it all - come see it for yourself and make it yours today!

7. 2021-10-11
   historical
8. 2018-08-13
   soldstatus
9. 2018-08-10
   soldstatus
10. 2018-07-10
    listed $215,500
11. 2007-08-23
    soldstatus
12. 2006-09-14
    listed $208,900
13. 2005-12-06
    listed $219,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,465 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,764 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: +$299/yr (+$25/mo · 12.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$2,465
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,214
• − Management: −$2,214
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$10,750
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,580
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 31,374
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 31,374
• Household income: $93,583
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 24.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.49%
• Current HPI: 176.8843
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.43%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+59.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2026-05-19 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-06 Listed $349,900 MLSU
• 2024-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-09-24 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2024-08-27 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-08-22 Contingent — MLSU
• 2024-08-08 Listed $319,900 MLSU
• 2021-10-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2018-08-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-10 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-07-10 Listed $215,500 MLSU
• 2007-08-23 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2006-09-14 Listed $208,900 MLSU
• 2005-12-06 Listed $219,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,465 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.