3459 U.s. 9 #30 · Claverack-Red Mills, NY 12534

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 1988 Fair condition Est $74k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 70×14 two-bedroom, one-bath home is located in the desirable 55+ Community at Bells Pond. The home features a bright enclosed sunroom and a spacious open floor plan, offering comfortable and easy living. Park approval is required. Lease 362

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Enclosed sunroom
• Built 1988

Tags

• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.5% vs local median 3.9% in Claverack-Red Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 111.59%
• DSCR: 5.97
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $74,480
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5427 Ny-9h #16	0.43mi	2/1.0	960 (-2%)	9mo	$73,000	$76	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.66×
• Total profit: $133,319
• Equity at exit: $49,548

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.79×
• Total profit: $350,978
• Equity at exit: $106,853

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12534

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $1,432

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $55,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    status Active 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    This 70×14 two-bedroom, one-bath home is located in the desirable 55+ Community at Bells Pond. The home features a bright enclosed sunroom and a spacious open floor plan, offering comfortable and easy living. Park approval is required. Lease 362

17. 2026-05-07
    status Pending 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    This 70×14 two-bedroom, one-bath home is located in the desirable 55+ Community at Bells Pond. The home features a bright enclosed sunroom and a spacious open floor plan, offering comfortable and easy living. Park approval is required. Lease 362

18. 2026-04-22
    listed $68,000 Active 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    This 70×14 two-bedroom, one-bath home is located in the desirable 55+ Community at Bells Pond. The home features a bright enclosed sunroom and a spacious open floor plan, offering comfortable and easy living. Park approval is required. Lease 362

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,202
• − Management: −$2,202
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $17,341
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,162
• After-tax cash flow: $13,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 70×14 two-bedroom, one-bath home in a desirable 55+ community requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — small and outdated
• Minor exterior siding — some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would improve both resale and rental value
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would improve both resale and rental value
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpeting — new flooring would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · small and outdated	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeting — new flooring would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson City School District
• NCES district ID: 3614940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,663
• Composite: 36.03/100
• National rank: #4779
• State rank: #494 of 590 in NY

Livability — Claverack-Red Mills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Columbia County · 17,176 people
• City population: 198
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,176
• Household income: $72,741
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1083.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.98%
• Current HPI: 490.0412
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $68,000 HVCRMLS