BRAZOS Plan · Grangerland, TX 77302

$283,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,012 sqft · SingleFamily · 608 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Boasting a beautiful and functional single-story layout, the Brazos plan welcomes you with a charming front porch entrance. Inside, the home is anchored by an open-concept living area, with a spacious great room that flows into a versatile dining area and a well-appointed kitchen with a center island. Toward the front of the home, the foyer leads to three secondary bedrooms-two that flank a full bath and one with an attached full bath and walk-in closet. Located on the other side of the home for added privacy, the primary suite features an attached bath and a generous walk-in closet. A laundry room is also accessible through the primary suite. Personalization options may include a study in lieu of a bedroom, a grand primary bath-featuring a separate tub and shower-and a covered patio off the great room.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 607 days

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• CENTER ISLAND KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO OFF GREAT ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $283,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $269,855.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $284k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Milam El (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 524 students, 82% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 608 days — a 12% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $249,911 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 608 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.50%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,855
• List price: $283,990
• Delta: 5.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16812 Needlepoint Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,026 (+1%)	1mo	$269,765	$133	73
16866 Needlepoint Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,049 (+2%)	2mo	$279,212	$136	71
14305 Grey Pointe	0.57mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-2%)	1mo	$269,790	$136	68
16858 Needlepoint Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,125 (+6%)	3mo	$332,813	$157	67
14167 Granger Pointe Ln	0.58mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-2%)	3mo	$285,790	$144	66
14308 Grey Pointe Ct	0.61mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-2%)	2mo	$264,640	$134	66
14143 Granger Pointe Ln	0.63mi	4/2.5	1,981 (-2%)	2mo	$252,790	$128	65
14308 Ash Tree Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (-4%)	2mo	$269,900	$140	62
17014 Hazelnut Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (-4%)	3mo	$274,900	$142	57
14154 Granger Pointe	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,255 (+12%)	1mo	$269,540	$120	49
14309 Grey Pointe	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,255 (+12%)	3mo	$277,540	$123	49
16900 Hazelnut Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0	1,721 (-14%)	2mo	$269,990	$157	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-28,855
• Equity at exit: $40,236

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,593
• Equity at exit: $23,332

Cash invested: $75,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,048/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,361

Max offer price $269,855

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $407	-5% $314	+0% $220	+5% $127	+10% $34
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $116	+0% $220	+5% $325	+10% $429
Rate	-1.0pp $356	-0.5pp $289	base $220	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,464
• Closing costs: $8,096
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	0d	13	0.30mi
15271 Country West Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,350	$0.86	45d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $283,990 Active 608 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $283,990 Active 605 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $283,990 Active 604 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $283,990 Active 603 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $283,990 Active 602 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,990 Active 600 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $283,990 Active 596 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $283,990 Active 595 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $283,990 Active 594 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $283,990 Active 591 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $283,990 Active 590 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $283,990 Active 588 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $283,990 Active 587 DOM
14. 2024-10-21
    listed $283,990 Active 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Boasting a beautiful and functional single-story layout, the Brazos plan welcomes you with a charming front porch entrance. Inside, the home is anchored by an open-concept living area, with a spacious great room that flows into a versatile dining area and a well-appointed kitchen with a center island. Toward the front of the home, the foyer leads to three secondary bedrooms-two that flank a full bath and one with an attached full bath and walk-in closet. Located on the other side of the home for added privacy, the primary suite features an attached bath and a generous walk-in closet. A laundry room is also accessible through the primary suite. Personalization options may include a study in lieu of a bedroom, a grand primary bath-featuring a separate tub and shower-and a covered patio off the great room.

15. 2023-11-08
    listed $283,990 Active 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Boasting a beautiful and functional single-story layout, the Brazos plan welcomes you with a charming front porch entrance. Inside, the home is anchored by an open-concept living area, with a spacious great room that flows into a versatile dining area and a well-appointed kitchen with a center island. Toward the front of the home, the foyer leads to three secondary bedrooms-two that flank a full bath and one with an attached full bath and walk-in closet. Located on the other side of the home for added privacy, the primary suite features an attached bath and a generous walk-in closet. A laundry room is also accessible through the primary suite. Personalization options may include a study in lieu of a bedroom, a grand primary bath-featuring a separate tub and shower-and a covered patio off the great room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,116
• − Property taxes: −$4,048
• − Insurance: −$1,349
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,534
• − Management: −$2,534
• − Depreciation: −$7,850
• Taxable loss: −$1,757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$422
• After-tax cash flow: $3,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home presents as move-in-ready with excellent condition and curb appeal. Minor updates to exterior paint and landscaping would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and appearance
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and appearance ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-21 Listed $283,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $283,990 Zillow