200 Oak Ave · Flanders, NY 11901

$399,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1950 7,841 sqft lot Est $694k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 Bedroom 2 Bath Expanded Ranch with sunroom and 2 wood burning stoves. Updated heating system hot water heaters, roof and some windows. 2 full bathrooms, large unfinished attic with pull down stairs. Updated above ground oil tank, vinyl fenced yard. Low taxes!! 2026 taxes $3667.93 without STAR!! 2026 STAR is $512.45

Key facts

• Vinyl fenced yard
• Sunroom
• Wood burning stoves

Tags

• EXPANDED RANCH
• SUNROOM
• WOOD BURNING STOVES
• UPDATED HEATING SYSTEM
• VINYL FENCED YARD
• LARGE UNFINISHED ATTIC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached or detached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Actual property condition
• Construction: Brick and frame exterior
• Exterior features: Brick and frame construction; Vinyl fencing; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One-level home with rooms on the main floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($41k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $400k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,107 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $400k implies a 388% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.95%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $694,278
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Glider Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (-8%)	3mo	$520,000	$455	58
350 Brookhaven Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (-8%)	2mo	$650,000	$570	58
157 Pleasure Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,068 (-14%)	3mo	$450,000	$421	40
125 Cypress Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,074 (-14%)	22mo	$600,000	$559	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $154,772
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $417,401
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,535 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,879/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,582
• Net cashflow: $3,448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,170

Max offer price $399,999

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,675	-5% $3,562	+0% $3,448	+5% $3,335	+10% $3,222
Rent	-10% $2,853	-5% $3,151	+0% $3,448	+5% $3,746	+10% $4,044
Rate	-1.0pp $3,650	-0.5pp $3,550	base $3,448	+0.5pp $3,345	+1.0pp $3,239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
67 Reeves Bay Trl Unit 1546122P Riverhead, NY	1.0	1.0	990	$5,161	$5.21	14d	1	0.51mi
57 Nash Ave Riverhead, NY	2.0	1.0	860	$15,000	$17.44	20d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,999 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,999 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,999 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,999 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,999 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 320-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $399,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,879 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,819 · $402/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,941/yr (+$162/mo · 67.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$2,879
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,234
• − Management: −$7,234
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable income: $37,032
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,888
• After-tax cash flow: $32,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Flanders

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1107
• US rank: #22674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flanders, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+387.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $399,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,879 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.