815B Liverpool Cir · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · Condo public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1985 $181/sqft · 20% below area Est $280k · 20% under $413/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 1243 sqft popular Stratford model with a very large private patio in the sought after community of Leisure Village West. Bright & spacious, it has 2 bedrooms (primary is very large) and 2 full baths, a kitchen, large dining room living room and den/office. Newer timberline roof, newer sink, dishwasher, refrigerator, washer and dryer. The AC is only 6 years old and basic cable is included. The community is amenity rich & offers golf, pools, clubs, pickleball--your resort-lifestyle starts here! Maintenance plan includes landscaping and many repairs. All of this & close to shopping, restaurants, close to the GSP, shore points, and approx. 1 hour to AC, Philly

Key facts

• Close to restaurants
• Private patio
• Close to shopping

Tags

• PRIVATE PATIO
• NEWER TIMBERLINE ROOF
• AMENITY RICH COMMUNITY
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS
• APPROX 1 HOUR TO AC

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Leisure Village West; Monthly association fee; Association fee includes trash, common area, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removal; Community amenities: exercise room, community room, swimming pool, golf course, clubhouse, common areas, jogging path, landscaping, bocci

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium ownership; Model: Oxford
• Exterior features: Timberline roof; Property is attached (condominium)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Washer, Dryer, Dishwasher, Stove, Refrigerator included; No fireplaces; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.9% in Leisure Village West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $225k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.13%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,006
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -19.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-19,013
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,723
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,825 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,309/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$413
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,484

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $333	+0% $269	+5% $206	+10% $142
Rent	-10% $46	-5% $158	+0% $269	+5% $381	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $383	-0.5pp $327	base $269	+0.5pp $211	+1.0pp $152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	24d	1	0.33mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	0d	3	0.64mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	45d	1	0.74mi
1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,700	$2.16	0d	1	0.82mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	0d	1	0.86mi
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	45d	1	0.91mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	0d	6	0.97mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	45d	1	1.21mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	45d	1	1.31mi
1540 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,900	$2.15	45d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $413 · $4,956/yr
• Likely covers: cablelandscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $225,000 Active 805-char remark
2. 2012-06-29
   soldstatus $90,000
3. 2006-01-05
   soldstatus $167,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,309 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,456 · $371/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,147/yr (+$96/mo · 34.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,309
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,712
• − Management: −$2,712
• − HOA: −$4,956
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$63
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15
• After-tax cash flow: $3,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+34.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $225,000 MOMLS
• 2012-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2006-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,309 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.