3176 Lake Bayshore Dr · South Bradenton, FL 34205

$189,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Other · 12 Days on market

Built 1998

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

& quot; & quot; Welcome to easy living in this beautiful updated third floor condo overlooking a pond and mature trees. The 55+ community is located in Central Bradenton. Close to shopping dining and medical facilities. HOA currently $379 monthly includes spectrum TV and Internet. Updates in 2023-2024 include tile flooring throughout entry hall kitchen and both baths. Both baths have newer vanity cabinets and mirrors kitchen has newer cabinets and countertop sink and garbage disposal. AC unit replaced and installed in late 2023. Enjoy peace of mind with hurricane shutters on the screened lanai installed in 2023.September 2025 laminate wood flooring installed in bedrooms dining

Key facts

• Newer cabinets
• Overlooking a pond
• Hurricane shutters

Tags

• UPDATED THIRD FLOOR CONDO
• OVERLOOKING A POND
• TILE FLOORING
• NEWER VANITY CABINETS
• NEWER CABINETS
• HURRICANE SHUTTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($69/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert H. Prine Elementary School (math 46% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 744 students, 75% FRL); W. D. Sugg Middle School (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #462 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,010 students, 72% FRL); Southeast High School (math 25% / reading 34%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,716 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $166,846 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-35,272
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-49,038
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34205

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,668 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $137	-5% $71	+0% $6	+5% $-60	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-126	-5% $-60	+0% $6	+5% $72	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $54	base $6	+0.5pp $-43	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3064 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 115 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,250	$1.09	25d	1	0.02mi
3124 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 219 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$2,300	$2.01	25d	1	0.02mi
4444 17th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$2,200	$2.59	25d	1	0.19mi
4204 Heron Way Unit B304 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	5d	1	0.23mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,510	$1.87	3d	14	0.30mi
2305 46th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,837	$1.83	3d	10	0.34mi
4607 21st St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1133	$2,500	$2.21	25d	1	0.36mi
3963 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit F-414 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	16d	1	0.40mi
4121 Heron Way #108 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,340	$1.17	25d	1	0.40mi
4129 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit C501 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	5d	1	0.40mi
3635 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit J410 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,700	$1.49	25d	1	0.40mi
3737 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	23d	1	0.40mi
4109 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	768	$1,250	$1.63	25d	1	0.40mi
3506 14th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,725	$1.97	25d	5	0.55mi
1308 36th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,199	$1.68	25d	1	0.56mi
2004 49th Ave W Unit 2002 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,950	$1.91	25d	1	0.59mi
4906 21st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	18d	1	0.61mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,325	$1.77	4d	1	0.62mi
4916 18th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,650	$1.41	25d	1	0.65mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	18d	1	0.68mi
4906 25th St W #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1070	$1,550	$1.45	25d	1	0.72mi
4812 27th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,599	$1.75	13d	1	0.73mi
4812 27th St W Unit 4812 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,545	$1.69	13d	1	0.73mi
919 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,599	$1.68	13d	1	0.76mi
5016 22nd St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	5d	1	0.77mi
907 34th Ave W Unit B Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	25d	1	0.77mi
907 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	985	$1,599	$1.62	21d	1	0.77mi
2306 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	945	$1,700	$1.80	25d	1	0.78mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,610	$1.89	5d	16	0.82mi
655 Park Cir Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.5	816	$1,100	$1.35	25d	1	0.83mi
2901 26th St W #807 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,525	$1.62	4d	1	0.88mi
3512 32nd St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	5d	1	0.90mi
915 50th Avenue Plz W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	25d	1	0.90mi
4630 5th St W Ste 6 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	13d	1	0.90mi
5059 Live Oak Cir Unit 5059 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,900	$2.12	18d	1	0.92mi
707 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	730	$1,150	$1.58	25d	1	0.96mi
304 47th Avenue Dr W #112 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	25d	1	0.96mi
4810 Ho Wil Ln Unit 4810 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,600	$2.04	25d	1	0.97mi
5062 Live Oak Cir Unit 5026 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,545	$1.72	18d	1	0.97mi
5103 29th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1258	$2,600	$2.07	25d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $189,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 691-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $189,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$3,142
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$754
• After-tax cash flow: $823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,946
• Household income: $52,525
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1736.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -310.18%
• Current HPI: 369.8239
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.43%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $189,900 FSBO.com