448 Raisin River Dr · Adrian, MI 49221

$86,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Other · 57 Days on market

Built 1996 ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home for Sale in Hidden River North! This 1996 model has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, drywalled interior, double-pane windows, gas fireplace, carport, shed and a deck backing up to a wooded area. Base lot rent is $750 plus a $30 lot premium.

Key facts

• Drywalled interior
• Shed
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• DRYWALLED INTERIOR
• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• CARPORT
• SHED
• DECK BACKING UP TO WOODED AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (no attached garage)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Ranch style; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1996; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen (13 x 19)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (13 x 13); Bedroom 2 (13 x 10); Bedroom 3 (13 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace; 7 total rooms; Basement (other)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (8 x 5)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.8% vs local median 5.7% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#342 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Madison School District (Lenawee) (town): math 34% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #195 of 540 in MI (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $595 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $83,420 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.96%
• DSCR: 3.62
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $61,455
• Equity at exit: $12,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.26×
• Total profit: $150,686
• Equity at exit: $7,436

Cash invested: $24,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49221

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$108 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $1,183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $752

Max offer price $86,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,500
• Closing costs: $2,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1962 W Cadmus Rd Adrian, MI	3.0	2.0	1170	$2,250	$1.92	21d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $86,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $86,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $86,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $86,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $86,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $86,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $86,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $86,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $86,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $86,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $86,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $86,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $86,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $86,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $86,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $86,000 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    Home for Sale in Hidden River North! This 1996 model has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, drywalled interior, double-pane windows, gas fireplace, carport, shed and a deck backing up to a wooded area. Base lot rent is $750 plus a $30 lot premium.

17. 2026-05-13
    price $86,000 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    Home for Sale in Hidden River North! This 1996 model has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, drywalled interior, double-pane windows, gas fireplace, carport, shed and a deck backing up to a wooded area. Base lot rent is $750 plus a $30 lot premium.

18. 2026-05-13
    price $86,000

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    Home for Sale in Hidden River North! This 1996 model has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, drywalled interior, double-pane windows, gas fireplace, carport, shed and a deck backing up to a wooded area. Base lot rent is $750 plus a $30 lot premium.

19. 2026-04-21
    listed $92,000 Active 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    Home for Sale in Hidden River North! This 1996 model has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, drywalled interior, double-pane windows, gas fireplace, carport, shed and a deck backing up to a wooded area. Base lot rent is $750 plus a $30 lot premium.

20. 2026-04-21
    listed $92,000 Active 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    Home for Sale in Hidden River North! This 1996 model has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, drywalled interior, double-pane windows, gas fireplace, carport, shed and a deck backing up to a wooded area. Base lot rent is $750 plus a $30 lot premium.

21. 2026-04-21
    listed $92,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    Home for Sale in Hidden River North! This 1996 model has 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, drywalled interior, double-pane windows, gas fireplace, carport, shed and a deck backing up to a wooded area. Base lot rent is $750 plus a $30 lot premium.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,817
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$2,502
• Taxable income: $13,641
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,274
• After-tax cash flow: $10,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison School District (Lenawee)
• NCES district ID: 2622320
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,961
• Composite: 35.35/100
• National rank: #4959
• State rank: #195 of 540 in MI

Livability — Adrian

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #8722

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adrian, MI
• City population: 41,041
• Population (ZIP): 41,041

Population outlook (Lenawee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,497 people
• By 2030: 92,722 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 85,641 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 77,971 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 60,043 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 41,468 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenawee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.64%
• Current HPI: 237.3796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $86,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $86,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $86,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $92,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $92,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-21 Listed $92,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $121 · -23.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.