Is 927 27th St in San Leon, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.1% cap rate and $-175/mo modeled cash flow at a $175,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 927 27th St?

The modeled cap rate is 5.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,309/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 41.08

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +8.0/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
1% rule +2.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
DSCR +2.1/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$175,000

927 27th St · San Leon, TX 77539

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 2010 Good condition 5,488 sqft lot $219/sqft · 17% below area Est $211k · 17% under ↓ 22% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated one-bedroom, one-bath home with a bright, open-concept layout and abundant natural light. The spacious living, dining, and kitchen areas feature wood-look flooring, recessed lighting, and large windows. The kitchen offers extensive cabinet storage, generous counter space, a dishwasher, range, and included refrigerator. New Mini Split AC/heat systems. The oversized bedroom includes two large closets with built-in shelving and hanging space. The bathroom features an updated vanity and tub/shower combination. Washer and dryer hookups are conveniently located inside the home.

Key facts

Mature landscaping
Open-concept layout
5,488 sq ft lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (14.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (25.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $131k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.8% in San Leon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#899 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: San Leon El (math 27% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 658 students, 84% FRL); John And Shamarion Barber Middle (math 59% / reading 48%, grade C+, #275 of 1,662 statewide, top 17%, 568 students, 74% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 982 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $130,942 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.75% ✗
Cap rate: 5.09%
Cash-on-cash: -4.28%
DSCR: 0.81
GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $211,305
List price: $175,000
Delta: -17.18%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2717 Avenue D	0.74mi	2/1.0 (+1)	834 (+4%)	9mo	$195,000	$234	46
827 22nd St	1.34mi	2/2.0 (+1)	850 (+6%)	8mo	$184,500	$217	39
825 22nd St	1.34mi	2/2.0 (+1)	850 (+6%)	13mo	$230,000	$271	34
1421 24th St	0.98mi	1/1.0	858 (+7%)	34mo	$129,900	$151	33
502 Jenni Ln	0.60mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+25%)	9mo	$239,500	$240	31
1622 Dick Bay Dr	1.06mi	1/1.0	672 (-16%)	16mo	$189,000	$281	27
2732 Avenue D	0.80mi	2/2.0 (+1)	880 (+10%)	27mo	$230,000	$261	19
2365 Avenue D	1.17mi	2/2.0 (+1)	913 (+14%)	18mo	$195,000	$214	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -26.9%
Equity multiple: 0.12×
Total profit: $-43,317
Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

IRR: -39.6%
Equity multiple: -0.36×
Total profit: $-66,817
Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 1 active
Median asking: $289,000 ($318/sqft)
Median days on market: 124 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: -16.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77539

Home prices YoY: -29.8%
Rents YoY: -0.1%
Active inventory: 982
Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,309 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$918
Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
Insurance: −$73
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
Net cashflow: $-175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $149,685

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-54	-5% $-114	+0% $-175	+5% $-235	+10% $-296
Rent	-10% $-278	-5% $-227	+0% $-175	+5% $-123	+10% $-71
Rate	-1.0pp $-87	-0.5pp $-130	base $-175	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $43,750
Closing costs: $5,250
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

Parking: Paved driveway
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2010
Construction: Wood sidingBlock foundationMetal roof
Exterior features: DeckPatioPartial fencingPaved driveway

Interior

Kitchen: Convection ovenElectric cooktop
Bedrooms: 1 total room (studio or single-room layout)
Flooring: Laminate
Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
Heating & cooling: Window unit heatingWindow unit cooling
Interior features: Laminate flooring
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $175,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $175,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $175,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $175,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $175,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $175,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $175,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $175,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $175,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $175,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $175,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $175,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-08-18

pricedays on marketlisting id $175,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $178,500 Active 103 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $178,500 Active 102 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $178,500 Active 101 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $178,500 Active 100 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $178,500 Active 99 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $178,500 Active 97 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $178,500 Active 95 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $178,500 Active 94 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $178,500 Active 91 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $178,500 Active 90 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $178,500 Active 89 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $178,500 Active 88 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $178,500 Active 86 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $178,500 Active 82 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $178,500 Active 81 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $178,500 Active 80 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $178,500 Active 77 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $178,500 Active 76 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $178,500 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $178,500 Active 74 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $178,500 Active 73 DOM
2026-03-20

listed $1,600
2026-03-19

listed $180,000 Active 833-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $15,713
− Mortgage interest: −$9,803
− Property taxes: −$2,625
− Insurance: −$875
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,257
− Management: −$1,257
− Depreciation: −$5,091
Taxable loss: −$5,195

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,247
After-tax cash flow: $-853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,000–$12,000 screening

This multi-family property is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is ready for move-in and has a good investment potential with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary San Leon El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle John And Shamarion Barber Middle C+ TX #275/1,662 Nat'l #2,785/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Dickinson ISD
NCES district ID: 4817070
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $61,318
Composite: 35.16/100
National rank: #5005
State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — San Leon

Score: 62/100
State rank: #899
US rank: #16159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: San Leon, TX
County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 49,375
Household income: $89,111
Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 390,640 people
By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
Current HPI: 258.0104
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

2026-08-18 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
2026-07-01 Rental Removed $1,500 HARMLS
2026-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-05-29 Price Changed $1,500 HARMLS
2026-05-28 Price Changed $178,500 HARMLS
2026-03-20 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
2026-03-19 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
2025-12-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-12-08 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
2025-07-18 Listed $178,000 HARMLS
2025-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-05-21 Price Changed $178,000 HARMLS
2025-03-19 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
2025-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2024-11-20 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
2024-10-28 Listed $225,000 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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