927 27th St · San Leon, TX 77539

$178,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 91 Days on market

Built 2010 5,489 sqft lot $162/sqft · 28% below area Est $247k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Coastal Cottages near Galveston Bay with easy access to Texas City, La Porte, League City and Dickinson- Galveston 30 Minutes and Houston 45 minutes from Property. Great Investment property without restrictions- Rental, office, Business location, or residence with additional rental for extra income! The Lot is highly elevated and fully concreted with parking spaces. Unit One is newly updated and fully operational, ready for move in! Bright and refreshing, Large open living room and Kitchen with custom cabinetry, Private Patio, Spacious Bedroom and Full Bathroom. Windstorm engineered and insurable. Unit Two is a One bedroom, full bathroom, Kitchen space, plenty of space for private patio. This unit can be set up and operating quickly, and is easily movable if looking for additional parking for a business from Unit One.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Windstorm engineered
• Newly updated unit

Tags

• HIGHLY ELEVATED LOT
• FULLY CONCRETED PARKING SPACES
• NEWLY UPDATED UNIT
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• PRIVATE PATIO
• WINDSTORM ENGINEERED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.8% in San Leon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#899 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 664 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 11056% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $133,707 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.26%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,671
• List price: $178,500
• Delta: -27.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2786 Avenue H	0.38mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,170 (+6%)	23mo	$90,000	$77	48
502 Jenni Ln	0.60mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-9%)	6mo	$239,500	$240	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-44,114
• Equity at exit: $26,615

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-68,015
• Equity at exit: $15,433

Cash invested: $49,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 664
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,337 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$936
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$223 /mo · $2,678/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,561

Max offer price $152,846

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,625
• Closing costs: $5,355
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,500 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,500 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,500 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,500 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,500 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $178,500 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $178,500 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $178,500 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $178,500 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $178,500 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $178,500 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $178,500 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,500 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-03-20
    listed $1,600
15. 2026-03-19
    listed $180,000 Active 833-char remark

    Show marketing remark (833 chars)

    Coastal Cottages near Galveston Bay with easy access to Texas City, La Porte, League City and Dickinson- Galveston 30 Minutes and Houston 45 minutes from Property. Great Investment property without restrictions- Rental, office, Business location, or residence with additional rental for extra income! The Lot is highly elevated and fully concreted with parking spaces. Unit One is newly updated and fully operational, ready for move in! Bright and refreshing, Large open living room and Kitchen with custom cabinetry, Private Patio, Spacious Bedroom and Full Bathroom. Windstorm engineered and insurable. Unit Two is a One bedroom, full bathroom, Kitchen space, plenty of space for private patio. This unit can be set up and operating quickly, and is easily movable if looking for additional parking for a business from Unit One.

16. 2025-12-09
    historical
17. 2025-12-08
    price $205,000
18. 2025-07-18
    listed $178,000 Active
19. 2025-06-30
    historical
20. 2025-05-21
    price $178,000
21. 2025-03-19
    listed $195,000 Active
22. 2025-01-31
    historical
23. 2024-11-20
    price $215,000
24. 2024-10-28
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,999
• − Property taxes: −$2,678
• − Insurance: −$892
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,284
• − Management: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$5,193
• Taxable loss: −$5,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,268
• After-tax cash flow: $-859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Leon

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #899
• US rank: #16159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Leon, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Listed $178,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $178,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-28 Listed $225,000 HARMLS