31510 E Timberloch Trl · Stagecoach, TX 77355

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2004 0.30 ac lot $127/sqft · at area comps Est $191k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*MOTIVATED SELLERS* Great for FIRST-TIMER BUYERS.. Fully renovated manufactured home offering a well-maintained interior with an OPEN and functional design throughout. The property provides a SPACIOUS yard with ample room for outdoor use and entertaining. Conveniently located to enjoy a QUIETER setting while still offering reasonable access to nearby shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. LOW TAXES add to the overall AFFORDABILITY, making this home a practical option for a variety of buyers seeking comfort, space, and value.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Fully renovated
• Quieter setting

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• SPACIOUS YARD
• QUIETER SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.2% in Stagecoach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,010 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J L Lyon El (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 703 students, 66% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 556 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.02%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,761
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 4.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16218 Evergreen Timbers	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	6mo	$209,995	$134	90
31307 W Timberloch Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-0%)	8mo	$195,000	$125	76
31302 W Timberloch Trl	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	2mo	$219,900	$123	59
31222 Wide Oak Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	9mo	$150,000	$112	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-23,363
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,569
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 556
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,256/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,797

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $254	-5% $198	+0% $141	+5% $84	+10% $28
Rent	-10% $-15	-5% $63	+0% $141	+5% $219	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $242	-0.5pp $192	base $141	+0.5pp $89	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24836 Sugar Pine Cone St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,950	$1.30	19d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-04-23
   price $199,900 534-char remark

   Show marketing remark (534 chars)

   *MOTIVATED SELLERS* Great for FIRST-TIMER BUYERS.. Fully renovated manufactured home offering a well-maintained interior with an OPEN and functional design throughout. The property provides a SPACIOUS yard with ample room for outdoor use and entertaining. Conveniently located to enjoy a QUIETER setting while still offering reasonable access to nearby shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. LOW TAXES add to the overall AFFORDABILITY, making this home a practical option for a variety of buyers seeking comfort, space, and value.

2. 2026-03-31
   listed $205,000 Active 534-char remark

   Show marketing remark (534 chars)

   *MOTIVATED SELLERS* Great for FIRST-TIMER BUYERS.. Fully renovated manufactured home offering a well-maintained interior with an OPEN and functional design throughout. The property provides a SPACIOUS yard with ample room for outdoor use and entertaining. Conveniently located to enjoy a QUIETER setting while still offering reasonable access to nearby shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. LOW TAXES add to the overall AFFORDABILITY, making this home a practical option for a variety of buyers seeking comfort, space, and value.

3. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-27
   historical
5. 2026-01-29
   listed $209,900 Active
6. 2026-01-28
   historical
7. 2026-01-08
   listed $215,000 Active
8. 2023-06-15
   soldstatus
9. 2023-06-13
   soldstatus Sold
10. 2023-05-24
    status Pending
11. 2023-05-17
    status Option Pending
12. 2023-04-29
    listed $200,000 Active
13. 2023-04-18
    historical $200,000
14. 2023-02-13
    soldstatus
15. 2015-07-20
    soldstatus
16. 2015-07-17
    soldstatus Sold
17. 2015-06-16
    status Pending
18. 2015-06-02
    status Option Pending
19. 2015-05-07
    listed $89,900 Active
20. 2015-04-11
    historical
21. 2015-04-09
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2015-03-05
    status Pending
23. 2015-02-27
    status Active
24. 2015-01-30
    status Pending
25. 2015-01-21
    listed $59,000 Active
26. 2006-05-02
    historical
27. 2005-11-02
    listed $100,500
28. 2004-10-26
    soldstatus
29. 2004-06-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,256 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$402/yr (+$33/mo · 12.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,256
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,557
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$374
• After-tax cash flow: $2,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stagecoach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1010
• US rank: #17937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+98.9% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-05-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-29 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-18 Coming Soon $200,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-06-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-05-07 Listed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2015-04-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-04-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-03-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-02-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-01-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-01-21 Listed $59,000 HARMLS
• 2006-05-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-11-02 Listed $100,500 HARMLS
• 2004-10-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,256 · -15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.