4 Citation Ct Unit B2 · Tinton Falls, NJ 07724

$219,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 869 sqft · Condo public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1988 $300/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Society Hill 3 bed 1 bath 2nd floor condo avail immediately. Sale is subject to affordable housing restrictions to a qualified low or moderate income purchaser.

Key facts

• $300 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1988

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.7% in Tinton Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#319 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tinton Falls School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #209 of 472 in NJ (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $220k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,601 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.37%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-11,324
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $22,030
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07724

• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,754 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,027/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,275

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
504 Crawford St Eatontown, NJ	2.0	1.0	942	$2,750	$2.92	24d	1	0.24mi
59C Southbrook Dr Eatontown, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	854	$2,749	$3.22	1d	3	1.09mi
180a Eatoncrest Dr Eatontown, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	744	$2,730	$3.67	1d	18	1.09mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-22
   listed $219,900 Active
3. 2002-08-23
   soldstatus $105,572
4. 1997-02-06
   soldstatus $87,720
5. 1995-06-15
   soldstatus $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,027 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,251 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,224/yr (+$102/mo · 40.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,027
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,644
• − Management: −$2,644
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable income: $1,316
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$316
• After-tax cash flow: $4,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tinton Falls School District
• NCES district ID: 3416200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $73,461
• Composite: 37.45/100
• National rank: #4411
• State rank: #209 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Tinton Falls

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #9845

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tinton Falls, NJ
• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,016
• Household income: $102,756
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -291.64%
• Current HPI: 330.7934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+147.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $219,900 MOMLS
• 2002-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $105,572 Public Records
• 1997-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $87,720 Public Records
• 1995-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,027 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.