377 E Bear Lake Rd · Bear Lake, MI 49646

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1974 0.36 ac lot $144/sqft · 6% below area Est $142k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated seller, make us an offer! Enjoy the best of Up North living within walking distance to beautiful, crystal-clear Bear Lake and the public boat launch! This well-kept property is packed with updates and thoughtful touches throughout. Major improvements were completed, including a carport with an attached shed in2021, on-demand hot water heater, covered back porch, extended front porch, gravel driveway, new landscaping, and tree removal for an open, easy-to-maintain yard. Inside, youll find a remodeled kitchen and bathroom, newer subfloors and carpet, and a newer well for peace of mind. The mobile home is affixed to the property, offering stability and financing options. An additional shed with power, workbench, metal shelving, compressor, and landscaping equipment-including a newer riding mower-is also included, making this property truly move-in ready. Whether youre looking for a year-round home or a Northern Michigan getaway close to the lake, this one is ready to enjoy!

Key facts

• New landscaping
• Extended front porch
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• CARPORT WITH ATTACHED SHED
• ON-DEMAND HOT WATER HEATER
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• EXTENDED FRONT PORCH
• NEW LANDSCAPING
• REMODELED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.7% in Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#425 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime D-.
• Kalkaska Public Schools (town): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #356 of 540 in MI (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Kalkaska County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kalkaska County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $125k implies a 252% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $116,352 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.56%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,895
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -11.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
497 E Bear Lake Rd. Rd NE	0.13mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-14%)	1mo	$147,000	$196	65
11396 Hillcrest Blvd	0.33mi	2/1.0	818 (-6%)	23mo	$209,900	$257	56
553 NE Bear Lake Rd	0.69mi	2/1.0	851 (-2%)	13mo	$139,900	$164	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-9,983
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,400
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49646

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,164 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $595/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $958

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $139,000 Active 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1073 chars)

    Motivated seller, make us an offer! Enjoy the best of Up North living within walking distance to beautiful, crystal-clear Bear Lake and the public boat launch! This well-kept property is packed with updates and thoughtful touches throughout. Major improvements were completed, including a carport with an attached shed in2021, on-demand hot water heater, covered back porch, extended front porch, gravel driveway, new landscaping, and tree removal for an open, easy-to-maintain yard. Inside, you’ll find a remodeled kitchen and bathroom, newer subfloors and carpet, and a newer well for peace of mind. The mobile home is affixed to the property, offering stability and financing options. An additional shed with power, workbench, metal shelving, compressor, and landscaping equipment—including a newer riding mower—is also included, making this property truly move-in ready. Whether you’re looking for a year-round home or a Northern Michigan getaway close to the lake, this one is ready to enjoy!

17. 2026-04-21
    listed $139,000 Active 1073-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1073 chars)

    Motivated seller, make us an offer! Enjoy the best of Up North living within walking distance to beautiful, crystal-clear Bear Lake and the public boat launch! This well-kept property is packed with updates and thoughtful touches throughout. Major improvements were completed, including a carport with an attached shed in2021, on-demand hot water heater, covered back porch, extended front porch, gravel driveway, new landscaping, and tree removal for an open, easy-to-maintain yard. Inside, you’ll find a remodeled kitchen and bathroom, newer subfloors and carpet, and a newer well for peace of mind. The mobile home is affixed to the property, offering stability and financing options. An additional shed with power, workbench, metal shelving, compressor, and landscaping equipment—including a newer riding mower—is also included, making this property truly move-in ready. Whether you’re looking for a year-round home or a Northern Michigan getaway close to the lake, this one is ready to enjoy!

18. 2025-11-07
    historical
19. 2025-11-07
    historical
20. 2025-10-21
    price $111,000
21. 2025-10-20
    price $111,000
22. 2025-10-07
    listed $124,900 Active
23. 2025-10-07
    listed $124,900 Active
24. 2025-10-01
    historical
25. 2025-10-01
    historical
26. 2025-08-14
    price $129,900
27. 2025-08-13
    price $129,900
28. 2025-07-23
    price $139,900
29. 2025-07-22
    price $139,900
30. 2025-07-02
    price $149,900
31. 2025-07-01
    price $149,900
32. 2025-06-05
    listed $159,900 Active
33. 2025-06-05
    listed $159,900 Active
34. 2024-08-13
    historical
35. 2024-08-13
    historical
36. 2024-05-25
    listed $159,900 Active
37. 2024-05-25
    listed $159,900 Active
38. 2019-08-09
    soldstatus $35,500
39. 2019-08-09
    soldstatus $35,500
40. 2018-05-30
    listed $50,000
41. 2018-05-30
    listed $50,000
42. 2006-09-01
    soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $595 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$665/yr (+$55/mo · 111.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$595
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,117
• − Management: −$1,117
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$31
• After-tax cash flow: $1,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kalkaska Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620050
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,055
• Composite: 26.03/100
• National rank: #7308
• State rank: #356 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bear Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #11571

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bear Lake, MI
• Population (ZIP): 8,573

Population outlook (Kalkaska County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,359 people
• By 2030: 17,222 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 16,643 · -4.1%
• By 2050: 15,810 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 13,772 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 10,976 · -36.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kalkaska

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.9) · D 27.8% · R 70.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.1pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -42.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.9 2020: R+41.7 2016: R+44.1 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.61%
• Current HPI: 290.8403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+308.8% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $139,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $139,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $111,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $111,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-07 Listed $124,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $124,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-05 Listed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-05 Listed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-05-25 Listed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-25 Listed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2019-08-09 Sold (MLS) $35,500 REALCOMP
• 2019-08-09 Sold (MLS) $35,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-30 Listed $50,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-05-30 Listed $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $595 · -18.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.