75 Saint Jude Dr · Lackawanna, NY 14218

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1956 7,500 sqft lot $195/sqft · 25% below area Est $254k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect starter home! This 3-bedroom ranch features a solid foundation with a full, dry basement and a sump pump installed in 2025, complete with an annual inspection warranty for added peace of mind. Recent electrical updates provide modern convenience, while the spacious, fully fenced yard is perfect for outdoor enjoyment, pets, or entertaining. With just minor cosmetic updates needed, this home is a great opportunity to add your personal touch and build equity. Located in a highly sought-after area, it’s an ideal choice for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. Open house for Sat & Sun 1-3 has been CANCELLED

Key facts

• Full dry basement
• Sump pump installed
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• FULL DRY BASEMENT
• SUMP PUMP INSTALLED
• RECENT ELECTRICAL UPDATES
• FULLY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Cable available; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers and fuses
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 50 x 150)
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; PEX plumbing; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Solid surface counters; Natural woodwork; Main level primary; Full basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lackawanna City School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #588 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Martin Road Elementary School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,944 of 2,108 statewide, top 92%, 560 students, 86% FRL); Lackawanna Middle School (math 5% / reading 27%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 407 students, 80% FRL); Lackawanna High School (math 72%, 560 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $190k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $154,652 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,810
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -25.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
238 Orchard Pl	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,003 (+3%)	3mo	$220,238	$220	91
92 Saint Jude Dr	0.04mi	3/1.0	972 (0%)	10mo	$290,000	$298	90
199 Orchard Pl	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,003 (+3%)	12mo	$199,900	$199	81
57 Teresa Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	981 (+1%)	15mo	$212,000	$216	73
234 Maryknoll Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0	936 (-4%)	18mo	$203,000	$217	62
33 Teresa Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,027 (+6%)	17mo	$230,000	$224	61
248 Maryknoll Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0	925 (-5%)	18mo	$146,500	$158	59
395 S Shore Blvd	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,093 (+12%)	19mo	$200,000	$183	55
125 Della Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	999 (+3%)	8mo	$242,000	$242	52
72 Della Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0	999 (+3%)	21mo	$191,000	$191	50
41 Della Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+10%)	11mo	$225,000	$211	47
4 Boardman Rd	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	900 (-7%)	18mo	$225,000	$250	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-36,751
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-39,631
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14218

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,547 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,893/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,666

Max offer price $173,244

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-41	+0% $-94	+5% $-148	+10% $-202
Rent	-10% $-216	-5% $-155	+0% $-94	+5% $-33	+10% $28
Rate	-1.0pp $1	-0.5pp $-46	base $-94	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 Orchard Pl Lackawanna, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,855	$2.65	4d	12	0.23mi
40 Vincent Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1075	$875	$0.81	25d	1	0.70mi
127 Langner Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	4d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   price $189,900 586-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $199,900 Active 586-char remark
3. 2023-05-11
   soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,893 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,051 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 5.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,893
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,485
• − Management: −$1,485
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$4,415
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,060
• After-tax cash flow: $-72/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lackawanna City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616440
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,041
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #8708
• State rank: #588 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lackawanna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #4026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lackawanna, NY
• City population: 20,661
• Population (ZIP): 20,661

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Arabic 11% Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.44%
• Current HPI: 389.0188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+137.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $189,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,893 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.