Primrose Plan · Conroe, TX 77316

$241,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,295 sqft · SingleFamily · 844 Days on market

↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 844 days

🏗️ New construction. The $241,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $263,991.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lone Star El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 844 days — a 12% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $198,634 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 844 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.14%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,991
• List price: $241,990
• Delta: -8.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10235 Burton Path	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,295 (0%)	5mo	$240,990	$186	89
10337 Navarro Path	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	1mo	$239,990	$180	85
10325 Navarro Path	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	1mo	$253,990	$191	85
16212 Mcdonald County Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	13mo	$272,990	$205	81
16457 Jones Jog Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	9mo	$258,990	$195	79
16485 Jones Jog Trl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	8mo	$273,990	$206	78
16421 Jones Jog Trl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	16mo	$275,990	$208	76
16109 Coffee Creek Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	18mo	$259,990	$195	75
16405 Jones Jog Trl	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-15%)	18mo	$209,990	$191	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-64,065
• Equity at exit: $39,362

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-96,321
• Equity at exit: $22,825

Cash invested: $73,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,960/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,309

Max offer price $227,067

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-73	-5% $-164	+0% $-255	+5% $-346	+10% $-438
Rent	-10% $-412	-5% $-334	+0% $-255	+5% $-177	+10% $-98
Rate	-1.0pp $-122	-0.5pp $-188	base $-255	+0.5pp $-324	+1.0pp $-393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,998
• Closing costs: $7,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $241,990 Active 844 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $241,990 Active 841 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $241,990 Active 840 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $241,990 Active 839 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $241,990 Active 838 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $241,990 Active 836 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $241,990 Active 835 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $241,990 Active 832 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $241,990 Active 831 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $241,990 Active 830 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $241,990 Active 827 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $241,990 Active 826 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $241,990 Active 825 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $241,990 Active 824 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $241,990 Active 823 DOM
16. 2026-04-03
    price $241,990 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

17. 2025-08-12
    price $240,990 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

18. 2025-08-12
    price $246,240 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

19. 2025-07-02
    price $240,990 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

20. 2025-03-08
    price $249,990 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

21. 2025-01-28
    price $249,490 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

22. 2024-07-19
    price $248,490 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

23. 2024-05-12
    price $247,990 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

24. 2024-04-02
    price $247,490 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

25. 2024-02-28
    listed $245,990 Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,788
• − Property taxes: −$3,960
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − Depreciation: −$7,680
• Taxable loss: −$7,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,854
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $241,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $240,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $246,240 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $240,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $249,490 Zillow
• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $248,490 Zillow
• 2024-05-12 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $247,490 Zillow
• 2024-02-28 Listed $245,990 Zillow