5317 Chateau Ln · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34207

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 569 Days on market

Built 1974 3,968 sqft lot Est $140k · 11% over $250/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Chateau Village - 2BR/2BA Double-Wide in Active 55+ Community! Step into affordable, low-maintenance Florida living in this 2 bedroom, 2 bath double wide home. Highlights include a spacious open-concept layout, laminate flooring throughout, ceramic tile kitchen floor, a rubber membrane roof (2012) and A/C 2011. Low $250/month maintenance fee includes: water, sewer, trash, internet, cable, lawn mowing, on site manger, clubhouse, shuffleboard and community gate with NO LOT RENT. Close to shopping, dining, airport, medical facility, and the beaches of Anna Maria Island, this home is perfect for seasonal or year round living. Come enjoy the Life Style Florida provides.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Laminate flooring
• A/c unit

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• CERAMIC TILE
• RUBBER MEMBRANE ROOF
• A/C UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.09 acres (asphalt road access)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA named Patrick — monthly fee $250 (required); association approval required; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One level; West-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a double wide body type
• Exterior features: Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Outside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($471/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, employment F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: G D Rogers Garden- Bullock Elementary (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,009 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 504 students, 78% FRL); Electa Lee Magnet Middle School (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #495 of 571 statewide, top 87%, 759 students, 68% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-27 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 569 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 569 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,208
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
715 50th Avenue Ter W	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-0%)	4mo	$75,000	$68	72
205 52nd Avenue Ter E	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,124 (+2%)	1mo	$180,000	$160	71
703 Corsica Ct	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-9%)	4mo	$98,000	$97	71
502 Bolivia Blvd	0.08mi	2/2.0	960 (-13%)	2mo	$124,900	$130	69
209 E 52nd Avenue Plz E	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+4%)	2mo	$165,500	$144	65
4809 4th St W	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,104 (0%)	2mo	$132,500	$120	64
306 49th Ave W	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,130 (+2%)	3mo	$120,000	$106	61
905 51st Avenue Ter W	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-9%)	5mo	$127,000	$127	56
704 49th Avenue Ter W	0.51mi	2/1.0	978 (-11%)	4mo	$125,000	$128	54
1106 49th Avenue Dr W	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,013 (-8%)	1mo	$145,000	$143	53
808 53rd Ave E #108	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+4%)	4mo	$135,000	$117	52
1007 50th Ave W	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+12%)	1mo	$150,000	$122	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-27,046
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-37,432
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $618/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,492

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $83	+0% $39	+5% $-5	+10% $-48
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-22	+0% $39	+5% $100	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $79	base $39	+0.5pp $-1	+1.0pp $-42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5502 8th Street Ct W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,595	$1.78	25d	1	0.18mi
5580 Fountain Lake Cir Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$1,908	$1.81	3d	38	0.24mi
608 51st Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	760	$2,200	$2.89	25d	1	0.39mi
503 51st Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	882	$1,075	$1.22	13d	1	0.41mi
503 51st Ave W Unit 503 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	882	$1,275	$1.45	25d	1	0.41mi
1007 57th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	967	$1,495	$1.55	12d	1	0.46mi
808 53rd Ave E #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,450	$1.20	17d	1	0.52mi
915 50th Avenue Plz W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	25d	1	0.53mi
707 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	730	$1,150	$1.58	25d	1	0.54mi
304 57th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,362	$1.13	5d	5	0.59mi
304 57th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,445	$1.20	25d	3	0.59mi
308 57th Avenue Dr E Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,350	$1.12	5d	1	0.63mi
312 57th Avenue Dr E Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,350	$1.12	4d	1	0.64mi
409 57th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,375	$1.14	12d	1	0.65mi
5531 16th St W Unit 5537 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	5d	1	0.66mi
4810 Ho Wil Ln Unit 4810 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,600	$2.04	25d	1	0.66mi
408 57th Avenue Dr E Apt E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,375	$1.14	13d	1	0.67mi
408 57th Avenue Dr E Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,350	$1.12	12d	1	0.67mi
5828 3rd St E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1036	$1,995	$1.93	25d	1	0.72mi
655 Park Cir Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.5	816	$1,100	$1.35	25d	1	0.74mi
5513 18th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	25d	1	0.76mi
304 47th Avenue Dr W #112 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	25d	1	0.77mi
4630 5th St W Ste 6 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	13d	1	0.82mi
716 56th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	5d	1	0.82mi
5613 8th St Ct E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	25d	1	0.84mi
202 46th Avenue Ter W #409 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1086	$1,995	$1.84	25d	1	0.85mi
203 46th Avenue Ter W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	880	$1,099	$1.25	5d	1	0.87mi
512 60th Avenue Ter W Unit 512 Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.5	972	$1,900	$1.95	12d	1	0.88mi
4916 18th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,650	$1.41	25d	1	0.92mi
5323 11th Street Cir E Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	25d	1	0.96mi
1566 Pleasant Rd Unit J24 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	25d	1	0.96mi
1807 Restful Dr Unit N4 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	5d	1	0.97mi
3 Date Ave Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	25d	1	1.03mi
1874 Sunny Dr Unit F32 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$950	$1.28	25d	1	1.05mi
5858 Welcome Rd Unit J23 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	5d	1	1.06mi
2004 49th Ave W Unit 2002 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,950	$1.91	25d	1	1.06mi
5016 22nd St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	5d	1	1.09mi
5820 21st St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,995	$1.79	5d	1	1.09mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	17d	1	1.09mi
4906 21st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	17d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashinternetcable

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $155,000 Active 569 DOM
2. 2026-04-17
   price $155,000
3. 2025-12-26
   price $160,000
4. 2025-04-07
   price $165,000
5. 2025-03-02
   price $170,000
6. 2024-11-07
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $618 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$668/yr (+$56/mo · 108.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$618
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,480
• − Management: −$1,480
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$490
• After-tax cash flow: $961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayshore Gardens, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-02 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-07 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $618 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.