310 W Tilley St · Hebbronville, TX 78361

$39,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 975 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Built 1964 7,000 sqft lot $41/sqft · 31% below area Est $57k · 31% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a spacious lot. This property features pier-and-beam construction with a brick exterior, offering classic durability and easy maintenance. A one-car carport provides convenient covered parking. In the back, you’ll find a separate building previously used as a beauty shop—perfect for storage, a hobby space, or potential conversion depending on your needs. A solid opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for a versatile property with room to grow.

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Separate building
• One-car carport

Tags

• PIER-AND-BEAM CONSTRUCTION
• BRICK EXTERIOR
• ONE-CAR CARPORT
• SEPARATE BUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Detached parking; Front entry parking; On-street parking; Total of 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water available; Public sewer available
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Storage building/area; Chain link and partial fencing; Interior lot; All-weather road and city street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 50' x 140'

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Primary bedroom located on the downstairs level; Hardwood, tile, and vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($836 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,032 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jim Hogg County ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #622 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $273 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $377 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jim Hogg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 93% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,315 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.88%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,157
• List price: $39,500
• Delta: -30.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 E Texas St	0.37mi	3/2.0	957 (-2%)	1mo	$54,900	$57	75
103 E David St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,072 (+10%)	4mo	$42,500	$40	45
711 Marcos Hinojosa Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	874 (-10%)	8mo	$50,000	$57	43
1001 N Elm Ave	0.62mi	2/1.5 (-1)	856 (-12%)	2mo	$49,500	$58	42
402 E Kohler St	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	920 (-6%)	14mo	$78,500	$85	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $17,635
• Equity at exit: $9,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $45,238
• Equity at exit: $10,173

Cash invested: $11,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78361

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $836 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $39,500

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,875
• Closing costs: $1,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,500 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,500 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,500 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,500 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,500 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,500 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,500 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,500 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,500 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,500 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,500 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,500 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,500 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,500 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    listed $39,500 Active 503-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 93% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,213
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$802
• − Management: −$802
• − Depreciation: −$1,149
• Taxable income: $3,483
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$836
• After-tax cash flow: $3,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jim Hogg County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824750
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $35,870
• Composite: 25.69/100
• National rank: #7391
• State rank: #622 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hebbronville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1032
• US rank: #18361

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hebbronville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,764

Population outlook (Jim Hogg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,023 people
• By 2030: 4,897 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 4,722 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 4,510 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 3,827 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 2,794 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 78% Two or more races 40% White 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 58% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jim Hogg

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.3) · D 54.0% · R 45.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 47.6pp · 2024: 8.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.3 2020: D+17.9 2016: D+56.9 2012: D+56.7 2008: D+47.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 99.0946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $39,500 CBMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,380 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.